Week 10 is in the books, so let me offer a re-calibrated look at Strength of Schedule. At this point in the year, better to look at the here and now, rather than stuff way down the road, so I’m looking at the average totals for the next four games for each team. (For most teams, this is Weeks 11-14; for the few with a bye left, it’s Weeks 11-15).
Two offenses I don’t care much for project to play the easiest schedules. Houston and Kansas City should play the easiest schedules in the next month. That’s what the numbers say (but Alex Smith and Brock Osweiler still blow). They are followed by the Jets and Bills.
Three notable offenses on paper have the hardest schedules – Dallas, Green Bay and Washington. They’re all down around 2 TDs on average. (And that’s offensive touchdowns – setting aside kick returns and takeaways.)
|SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (next 4 games)|
For rushing, it looks like the Jets, Falcons and Bears will play the easiest schedules over the next month. New York is up at 131 yards per game, so let’s not give up on Matt Forte.
Three offenses play schedules with opponents allowing well under 100 yards – Washington, Dallas and Seattle. I take this as evidence Robert Kelley won’t keep it going, and Seattle will never get its running game off the ground. With Dallas, however, I think they can just run on anybody.
|SCHEDULE, Rushing (next 4 games)|
For passing, Houston, Carolina and Pittsburgh will (in the next month) play defenses allowing the most yards. Trouble is, however, Houston and Carolina haven’t been able to get things going all along. And with the Steelers, they’ve got a bunch of road games, and they’re just a different team away from Heinz Field.
The Dolphins, Falcons and Vikings should see the toughest pass defense.
|SCHEDULE, Passing (next 4 games)|