New England’s offense probably will score 3-4 TDs, and just 3 TDs looks more likely. Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing pretty well. It’s allowed only 19 TDs in its last 10 meaningful game. Only two opponents in there scored more than 2 TDs (the Cowboys, and at Buffalo). The Patriots have a great offense, of course, but they’re going without Rob Gronkowski, who’s caused major problems for the Steelers in the past (including two games with 3 TD catches).

Without Gronk, they’re not quite as dynamic. The offense has scored 33 TDs in its last 10 games, and it’s been over 3 in only four of those – against the 49ers, Jets and Dolphins (who are all pretty terrible) and in a Monday nighter at home against Baltimore. As good as these Patriots are, we’re thinking just 3 TDs is the correct number. … The Patriots are 5-2 against the Steelers since Mike Tomlin became Pittsburgh’s coach in 2007. That includes a 27-16 win at Heinz Field in Week 7, but Ben Roethlisberger missed that one. One of the Pittsburgh wins came in 2008, when Tom Brady was out. With both Brady and Roethlisberger playing, these teams have met only once in the last three years (New England won 28-21 at Foxboro in the season-opening game of 2015 – Steelers scored in the final seconds of that game to make it look closer than it actual was. New England is a 5-6 point favorite with an over-under of about 51 points.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady had a little bit of an off game against Houston, completing under 50 percent of his passes and throwing 2 interceptions. The Texans have some former New England coaches, and they were probably able to use that knowledge to craft a good game plan. But Brady is still maybe the best quarterback ever, and he’s tough to stop. He’s 16-3 in playoff games at home. In last 10 playoff games at Foxboro, he’s averaged 295 passing yards, with 22 TDs (multiple touchdown passes in all but three of his last 15 playoff starts at home). The Steelers did a really nice job against Alex Smith on Sunday night and are playing with some swagger, but this is a different animal. The Patriots will spread the field, and Brady finds the guy who gets open. Pittsburgh’s defense looked pretty ordinary against Matt Moore two weeks ago. He lost a couple of fumbles, but he completed over 80 percent and moved the ball at times – hit a lot of a key, third-down throws. The Steelers in the regular season allowed 259 passing yards per game (slightly below average). So Brady should be just fine in this game, putting up his usual 290-plus yards. If you buy into our premise that New England’s offense will score 3 TDs, that should put him in line for a couple of touchdowns. In the Week 7 game (which we don’t see as particularly meaningful, the Patriots emphasized the run, with Brady finishing with 222 yards and 2 TDs. He passed for 288 yards and 4 TDs in the season-opener against the Steelers a year ago. Definitely should outproduce Roethlisberger. I haven’t look at the NFC game yet, but my early guess is that Rodgers and Ryan should finish with slightly better numbers.

RUNNING BACK: This is a one-two punch backfield. If the ball winds up on the 1- or 2-yard line, most likely it will be LeGarrette Blount who slams it in. He has scored 90 percent of the team’s 20 rushing touchdowns. Blount was also the key player in the earlier win over Pittsburgh, banging out 127 yards and 2 TDs. But the Patriots have been using Blount less often recently. Dion Lewis is healthy now, and he’s a far more explosive and versatile back – faster, more elusive and also a weapon in the passing game. Both of these backs averaged 15-17 carries in the final three games of the regular season, and Lewis played more against the Texans. For yards, Lewis is the choice. They’ll probably both get 12-15 carries, and Lewis has been better recently, running for 73 more yards in the last four games. Lewis probably will run for more yards, and he brings the added dimension as a pass catcher. The Patriots didn’t use Lewis as a receiver much in the regular season, but he has that ability. He caught 36 passes in seven games last year. He saw 7 targets against Houston (resulting in only 2 completions, but one was a touchdown). Good chance that Lewis got for 20-plus receiving yards, and that makes him an easy choice over Blount for total yards. Factoring in touchdowns, however, these backs become pretty similar. When the Patriots get to their power formation at the goal line, Blount is the guy they like, and they tend to score a lot of those touchdowns (20 in 17 games so far). If Lewis is to run for a touchdown, it will need to come from 3-plus yards or out of a pass-looking formation, and there simply aren’t as many of those scores. The Steelers play good run defense but have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns in 18 games. We’re figuring the Patriots will run for about 115 yards and a touchdown in this game. … James White should play on a few passing downs. He’s averaged 7 rushing and 31 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 3 TDs. But his playing time seems to be decreasing. Lewis can do a lot of the same things as a pass catcher and offers more as a runner. White scored against Houston but was on the field for only 12 plays. … If you’re drafting everyone, please note that fullback James Develin caught a ball at the goal line last week, coming within a couple of inches of scoring.

WIDE RECEIVER: Julian Edelman has caught only 3 of New England’s 34 TD passes, so tough to count on him to score. But he catches plenty of passes, consistently working the middle of the field. He’s averaged 7 catches and 92 yards in his last 10 games, and he’s gone over 135 in each of his last two. And this is the kind of opponent where he should be heavily utilized. Edelman has caught 20 passes for 157 yards in his last two games against the Steelers. If you’re in a PPR format, he’s about as good as any receiver this week. … With Chris Hogan, he doesn’t have the same workload but is more likely to hit on a big play. He’s averaging 18.5 yards per catch and hit on couple of long receptions last week, finishing with 4 for 95 yards. It is hard, however, to capture that kind of production. Hogan has gone over 70 yards three times this year, for example, and he hasn’t been good in any of the follow-up games.

So we’ll stick with the larger body of work. In 12 games with Brady, Hogan has averaged 54 yards, with 3 TDs. He left the Houston game with a hip injury but says he’s fine. … Malcolm Mitchell looked like a breakout receiver about a month ago, when he was scoring 4 TDs in four games. He seemed to have a nice rapport with Brady. But Mitchell has tailed off. He’s caught only 4 passes for 43 yards in his last two games, and now he’s sat out the last two with a sore knee. He was able to practice last week (on a limited basis) but wasn’t active against the Texans. The Patriots might be more comfortable with veterans like Michael Floyd and Danny Amendola now. Even if Mitchell is active and placed back in that No. 3 role, Floyd and Amendola also should get on the field.

TIGHT END: Martellus Bennett is talented. He’s gone over 100 yards three times this year, and he had a 3-TD game at Cleveland. But they’re simply not using him much nowadays. Maybe it’s related to him playing hurt; he’s been on the injury report a bunch. Or maybe it’s just not in their plans. But however you cook it, Bennett has been remarkably disappointing since Rob Gronkowski got hurt, catching only 18 passes for 200 yards and 3 TDs in eight games. That’s 25 yards per game. He makes sense in a TD-only format, but he can’t really get counted on for 40-plus yards. Best that can be said for him is that there aren’t any big-time tight ends left. The Falcons and Steelers hardly use their tight ends. Jared Cook has been catching passes lately but has only 2 TDs all year. Bennett tweaked a knee against Houston but says he’s fine.

KICKER: Stephen Goskowski didn’t have his usual awesome year, but he’s still good, and he’s been on the upswing lately, with 91 points in his last 10 games – that would project out to 146 points over a 16-game season. The Patriots look like the team most likely to win this week, so we’ll grade Gostkowski higher than the other three kickers.

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS: The Patriots grade out as the team most likely to intercept a pass this weekend. They have some talent in their secondary, with 16 interceptions in 17 games, and they’re playing against the one remaining quarterback with some history of floating up errant balls. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 16 interceptions in 16 games. But sacks aren’t likely. The Patriots have only an average pass rush (34 sacks in the regular season), while Roethlisberger gets the ball out of his hands – 19 sacks in his 16 games. When the Patriots last played against Roethlisberger, they got 2 sacks and an interception. New England scored on a kickoff return last week, but that’s been their first touchdown on a return all year. Pittsburgh allowed a touchdown on a blocked punt against Baltimore, and that’s been the only defensive or special teams touchdown they’ve given up in the last two years. The Steelers lost only 3 fumbles in the regular season.

—Ian Allan