Fantasy Index

Factoid

Two-point conversions

Final numbers: a 50-50 proposition

During the season, I checked in a couple of times on how teams were doing on 2-point conversions. You may recall in the preseason some big talk from a player or two on the Steelers, Packers and Saints about how they might go for 2 after touchdowns more often.

At one point around midseason, teams were converting around 60 percent of their attempts. But by the end of the season, that success rate had dropped to about where it's always been. Teams convert on 2-point attempts about 50 percent of the time.

But hey, teams missed 76 extra points this year. Compare that to two years ago, before they moved extra points back, when they missed a total of 8. So while success rate on 2-point conversions is similar to the past, it's lower on extra points -- making going for 2 more reasonable, especially if you've got a shaky kicker.

Looks like the Bills (although they're changing coaching staffs and maybe quarterbacks, so who knows) should go for 2 more often. They were 4 for 4 last season. The Raiders were also excellent, converting 5 of 7 attempts; the Ravens were 4 of 5. The Steelers should maybe kick a few more extra points. They were only 3 of 9 on 2-point tries last year. Tennessee and Washington were both 0 for 4.

Best and worst teams at converting 2-pointers are shown below.

NFL TWO-POINT CONVERSIONS, 2016
TeamConAttRate
Buff.44100.0%
Jac.22100.0%
K.C.22100.0%
NYJ11100.0%
S.F.22100.0%
Balt.4580.0%
Oak.5771.4%
Ind.2366.7%
Phil.4666.7%
T.B.4757.1%
Car.3650.0%
Clev.2450.0%
Den.1250.0%
Det.1250.0%
G.B.2450.0%
Mia.1250.0%
N.E.1250.0%
Sea.1250.0%
N.O.2540.0%
Atl.2633.3%
Minn.1333.3%
Pitt.3933.3%
Ariz.1425.0%
Dall.020.0%
L.A.010.0%
S.D.020.0%
Tenn.040.0%
Wash.040.0%
Total5110349.5%

--Andy Richardson

3 Reader Comments:

James Costello

Portland, ME
2017-01-17T17:58:30Z
If my math is correct you score an average of .99 per two point attempt. I don't have the kicking rate but they're not hitting 99% of the kicks. Mathematically if these numbers hold true over time,teams should be going for 2 much more often,at least in the first half of games. Numbers don't lie

ANDY RICHARDSON

Port Chester, NY
2017-01-17T18:17:52Z
The teams that are good at it should be, anyway. I notice a lot of the most successful teams have running or at least mobile quarterbacks. Not all, (Baltimore and Oakland don't) but most. While a lot of teams at the bottom have pocket passers who can't/don't run.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2017-01-17T18:23:55Z
Seems like if you have a really good 2-point play, where you're sure it will work, you should save it for when you need it.
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