Andy posted the deal yesterday about the Super Bowl hangover. It’s been over 20 years since a Super Bowl loser has made it back to the big game. But does that mean the Falcons can actually be earmarked for a lesser, disappointing season? Or is this just one of those things?
Truth is, anytime anyone was really well at anything, the odds are stacked against it happening again. The track record isn’t particularly good for Super Bowl winners returning to the big game either. And when a running back runs for over 1,800 yards or a quarterback tosses 40 touchdowns, you almost always see a decline the next year.
So let’s look at the numbers.
We’re in the fantasy football business, so I will slant it towards offenses. That’s what we care about the most.
Using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards (rushing/passing), I have ranked all of the offenses 1 thru 32 for each of the past 15 years.
We can then look at how teams improve and decline.
Of the 30 teams that have ranked 1st or 2nd offensively, for starters, note than 25 were worse the next year. Five of those 30 came back and ranked in the same place again. Similarly, if you look at the bottom 30 teams (the 15 ranking last, and the 15 ranking 31st), 26 of those teams were better the next year. Only one was worse, and the other 3 finished in the same spot.
Teams get better and worse, and anytime you have a team that is above average, it’s more likely to decline than further improve. And the teams on the bottom are more likely to improve.
Note that when I say “improve” and “decline” in this experiment, I’m talking about NFL rank (some number between 1 and 32). If we instead try to measure yards, TDs or fantasy points, we run into the issue of stats generally rising a little each year.
Using those 1-thru-32 ranks, the top 25 percent of offenses tend to fall 5-9 slots. The No. 1 offenses, for example, on average drop to 7.1. The No. 2 offenses have been the biggest decliners of all (on average not even in the top 10).
At the other end of the scale, five of the bottom seven offenses improved (on average) by over 7 spots. Typical stuff.
Circling back to losing Super Bowl teams, let’s add them into our study. I have them in bold on the chart below. During their Super Bowl seasons, they averaged 6-7th offensive (6.5, on average). In the next season, they tended to drop to almost 13th, finishing with 411 fewer yards and 9.2 fewer offensive touchdowns.
Compared to the similar offenses/teams around them, however, that doesn’t look wildly out of whack. Lots (most) offenses in the top 5-8 are declining anyway.
Super Bowl hex/jinx isn’t something I’m putting a lot of weight in. At the same time, I’m very confident Atlanta’s offense will decline. It had an unusually good season, averaging almost 34 points per game. And I imagine there will be some growing pains as their transition from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian at offensive coordinator.
| HOW OFFENSES HAVE IMPROVED/DECLINED SINCE 2002 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rnk Bef | Yds Bef | TD Bef | Rk Aft | Yds Aft | TD Aft | Rk Diff |
| 1 | 6,659 | 57.1 | 7.1 | 6,184 | 45.4 | -6.1 |
| 2 | 6,463 | 50.1 | 11.1 | 5,958 | 41.5 | -9.1 |
| 3 | 6,305 | 49.1 | 7.6 | 6,195 | 45.9 | -4.6 |
| 4 | 6,212 | 46.1 | 9.1 | 6,042 | 43.0 | -5.1 |
| 5 | 6,190 | 44.2 | 10.2 | 5,879 | 41.0 | -5.2 |
| 6 | 6,112 | 43.1 | 11.7 | 5,839 | 39.3 | -5.7 |
| SB | 6,211 | 48.5 | 12.8 | 5,800 | 39.3 | -6.3 |
| 7 | 6,030 | 42.4 | 13.3 | 5,795 | 38.2 | -6.3 |
| 8 | 5,919 | 42.3 | 12.9 | 5,823 | 41.4 | -4.9 |
| 9 | 5,944 | 39.8 | 12.9 | 5,717 | 38.6 | -3.9 |
| 10 | 5,828 | 39.7 | 12.1 | 5,838 | 39.5 | -2.1 |
| 11 | 5,838 | 38.1 | 11.5 | 5,920 | 38.3 | -.5 |
| 12 | 5,659 | 39.4 | 20.2 | 5,324 | 32.4 | -8.2 |
| 13 | 5,654 | 37.9 | 15.9 | 5,536 | 37.1 | -2.9 |
| 14 | 5,617 | 37.1 | 15.7 | 5,499 | 37.9 | -1.7 |
| 15 | 5,636 | 35.4 | 14.3 | 5,755 | 36.4 | .7 |
| 16 | 5,591 | 34.9 | 17.9 | 5,600 | 34.6 | -1.9 |
| 17 | 5,515 | 34.6 | 12.0 | 5,812 | 40.0 | 5.0 |
| 18 | 5,523 | 33.1 | 18.5 | 5,495 | 33.0 | -.5 |
| 19 | 5,393 | 34.0 | 18.2 | 5,523 | 33.8 | .8 |
| 20 | 5,429 | 32.5 | 18.2 | 5,498 | 32.8 | 1.8 |
| 21 | 5,322 | 32.3 | 21.2 | 5,289 | 31.8 | -.2 |
| 22 | 5,264 | 31.3 | 22.5 | 5,223 | 30.5 | -.5 |
| 23 | 5,199 | 30.5 | 18.2 | 5,497 | 33.7 | 4.8 |
| 24 | 5,248 | 28.8 | 20.1 | 5,335 | 33.3 | 3.9 |
| 25 | 5,198 | 28.1 | 22.3 | 5,315 | 30.1 | 2.7 |
| 26 | 5,066 | 28.1 | 18.8 | 5,374 | 33.5 | 7.2 |
| 27 | 5,035 | 26.5 | 23.0 | 5,231 | 30.5 | 4.0 |
| 28 | 4,881 | 26.4 | 18.9 | 5,437 | 33.3 | 9.1 |
| 29 | 4,884 | 24.5 | 25.5 | 5,117 | 28.4 | 3.5 |
| 30 | 4,773 | 23.6 | 20.0 | 5,357 | 31.6 | 10.0 |
| 31 | 4,664 | 21.3 | 23.7 | 5,135 | 30.1 | 7.3 |
| 32 | 4,119 | 18.4 | 23.7 | 5,059 | 28.9 | 8.3 |
Here’s another look at the same numbers. In this one, the emphasis is on how many are getting better and worse. You have to get down to the 13th-best offenses (from the previous year) before the majority of the 15 (in each mini group) got better the next season.
If you look at the teams in the top 10, the majority in each 15-team group got worse the next year. And if you look at offenses in the bottom 10 (23rd thru 32nd), the majority of all of those 15-team groups got better.
| OFFENSES GETTING BETTER/WORSE SINCE 2002 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rnk Bef | Rnk Aft | Rk Diff | Better | Worse | Same |
| 1 | 7.1 | -6.1 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
| 2 | 11.1 | -9.1 | 0 | 14 | 1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | 9.1 | -5.1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 5 | 10.2 | -5.2 | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| 6 | 11.7 | -5.7 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| SB | 12.8 | -6.3 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 7 | 13.3 | -6.3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| 8 | 12.9 | -4.9 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| 9 | 12.9 | -3.9 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 | 11.5 | -.5 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 | 20.2 | -8.2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| 13 | 15.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| 14 | 15.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 | 14.3 | .7 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 | 17.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | 18.5 | -.5 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| 19 | 18.2 | .8 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 | 18.2 | 1.8 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 | 21.2 | -.2 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| 22 | 22.5 | -.5 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | 18.2 | 4.8 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| 24 | 20.1 | 3.9 | 10 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | 22.3 | 2.7 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 26 | 18.8 | 7.2 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 27 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| 28 | 18.9 | 9.1 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 29 | 25.5 | 3.5 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| 30 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 31 | 23.7 | 7.3 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | 23.7 | 8.3 | 12 | 0 | 3 |