At the kicker position, is it a good enough strategy to go after somebody who scored a bunch of points in the previous year? Is the repeat rate high enough to merit going after a kicker before the others in your league? Or is it smarter to simply take whatever’s left in the final round or two?
Every year and player is different, of course. On many occasions, each strategy will pay off. But for a larger, odds-driven model, we can look at how things have tended to play out over the years.
In our most recently completed season, four kickers scored 135-plus points: Matt Bryant (158), Justin Tucker (131), Dustin Hopkins (138) and Caleb Sturgis (135). With that in mind, let’s look at how other kickers scoring 135-plus points have fared in their next season.
I looked at the last 10 years, and 38 kickers met those specs.
Based on how they performed the next year, I’m breaking them into three categories. If a kicker didn’t rank in the top 10 at his position, I am calling him a failure. Of the 38 kickers, 19 didn’t make the top 10. That’s half of them (including three who didn’t kick at all). Of those 19, none ranked higher than 14th. On the chart below, I have them tagged with black dots.
If a player ranked in the top 5, I’m calling him a success. That occurred with 11 of these 38. That includes Stephen Gostkowski five times on his own; he’s been the steadiest scorer at this position. So if you leave out Gostkowski, the success rate drops from 11 of 38 (29 percent) to just 6 of 31 (19 percent).
The remaining eight kickers finished in the bottom half of the top 10. I will call those guys neutral – neither successes or failures.
| KICKERS SCORING 135-PLUS POINTS: The next year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Points | Rank | Next | Rank |
| 2011 | David Akers, S.F. | 170 | 1 | 131 | 9 |
| 2013 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 158 | 1 | 156 | 1 |
| 2014 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 156 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| 2012 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 153 | 1 | 158 | 1 |
| 2015 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 151 | 1 | 127 | 8T |
| 2014 | • Cody Parkey, Phil. | 150 | 2 | 16 | 37 |
| 2013 | • Matt Prater, Den. | 150 | 2 | 84 | 28T |
| 2008 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 148 | 1 | 125 | 6 |
| 2011 | • John Kasay, N.O. | 147 | 2 | 0 | --- |
| 2009 | • Nate Kaeding, S.D. | 146 | 1 | 109 | 14 |
| 2015 | • Graham Gano, Car. | 146 | 2 | 121 | 15 |
| 2012 | • Lawrence Tynes, NYG | 145 | 2 | 0 | --- |
| 2008 | David Akers, Phil. | 144 | 2 | 139 | 2 |
| 2013 | • Nick Novak, S.D. | 144 | 3 | 106 | 21T |
| 2011 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 143 | 3 | 153 | 1 |
| 2010 | David Akers, Phil. | 143 | 1 | 170 | 1 |
| 2013 | Steven Hauschka, Sea. | 143 | 4 | 134 | 4T |
| 2006 | Robbie Gould, Chi. | 143 | 1 | 126 | 7 |
| 2008 | • John Carney, N.O. | 143 | 3 | 89 | 21 |
| 2012 | • Matt Bryant, Atl. | 143 | 3 | 111 | 21T |
| 2010 | Sebastian Janikowski, Oak. | 142 | 2 | 129 | 8 |
| 2013 | Mason Crosby, G.B. | 141 | 5 | 134 | 4T |
| 2007 | Mason Crosby, G.B. | 141 | 1 | 127 | 7T |
| 2012 | • Blair Walsh, Minn. | 141 | 4 | 121 | 15 |
| 2013 | Justin Tucker, Balt. | 140 | 6T | 129 | 10 |
| 2014 | • Adam Vinatieri, Ind. | 140 | 3 | 107 | 17 |
| 2011 | • Mason Crosby, G.B. | 140 | 4 | 113 | 17 |
| 2013 | • Phil Dawson, S.F. | 140 | 6T | 108 | 19 |
| 2009 | David Akers, Phil. | 139 | 2 | 143 | 1 |
| 2013 | Adam Vinatieri, Ind. | 139 | 8 | 140 | 3 |
| 2012 | • Shayne Graham, Hou. | 138 | 5 | 13 | 34 |
| 2007 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 137 | 2 | 148 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Chandler Catanzaro, Ariz. | 137 | 3 | 106 | 19 |
| 2011 | Dan Bailey, Dall. | 135 | 5T | 124 | 10 |
| 2015 | • Blair Walsh, Minn. | 135 | 4 | 51 | 32 |
| 2011 | • Neil Rackers, Hou. | 135 | 5T | 0 | --- |
Every year is different, of course, and each kicker must be graded on his own merits. For the 2017 season, I don’t find Bryant (ancient), Sturgis or Hopkins to be particularly compelling. Gostkowski and Tucker, I’m figuring, will definitely be top-3 kickers on my board – I would be more interested in potentially using an earlier pick on them.
—Ian Allan