The Browns and Titans both have multiple first-round picks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will be a whole bunch better. Many times in the past, other teams have had more than one first-round pick, and those teams haven’t tended to be unusually improved.
It’s happened 55 times in this century, headlined by the 2000 Jets, who had four choices in the first round in 2000. That was the year New York got a first-round pick from New England, after Bill Belichick resigned as their head coach and instead signed with the Patriots. The Jets also picked up a pair of first-round picks by trading Keyshawn Johnson to Tampa Bay.
But with those teams, there hasn’t been an unusual amount of instant improvement. Of those 55 teams, eight were 5 games better (I’ve got those teams in bold). Another four teams were four-game better (tagged with the black dot -- •).
Overall, these teams were 368-510-2. They moved up to 434-446-1 the next year, so that seemingly looks like improvement. But that’s driven by the vast majority of those teams having really bad records (setting them up to get better). Those extra wins aren’t necessarily being created by the first-rounders coming in.
For more of an apples-to-apples comparison, look at the 17 teams that went between 7-9 and 9-7. These are teams with the potential to get either better or worse. And those teams (collectively) won the exact same number of games after picking two players in the first round.
There are also 10 teams that won double-digit games, then had multiple first-round picks. These are teams that are better situated to decline, and that’s how it tended to play out, with those teams combining to win 14 fewer games.
| TEAMS WITH MULTIPLE FIRST-ROUND PICKS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | Record | Improve? | Players |
| Seahawks (9-7) | 2000 | (6-10) | -3 | 19 Shaun Alexander, 22 Chris McIntosh |
| Ravens (8-8) | 2000 | (12-4) | 4 | • 5 Jamal Lewis, 10 Travis Taylor |
| Jets (8-8) | 2000 | (9-7) | 1 | 12 Ellis, 13 Abraham, 18 Pennington, 27 Becht |
| 49ers (4-12) | 2000 | (6-10) | 2 | 16 Julian Peterson, 24 Ahmed Plummer |
| Washington (10-6) | 2000 | (8-8) | -2 | 2 LaVar Arrington, 3 Chris Samuels |
| Seahawks (6-10) | 2001 | (9-7) | 3 | 9 Koren Robinson, 17 Steve Hutchinson |
| Rams (10-6) | 2001 | (14-2) | 4 | • 12 Damione Lewis, 29 Ryan Pickett |
| Saints (7-9) | 2002 | (9-7) | 2 | 13 Donte Stallworth, 25 Charles Grant |
| Raiders (10-6) | 2002 | (11-5) | 1 | 17 Phillip Buchanon, 23 Napoleon Harris |
| Ravens (7-9) | 2003 | (10-6) | 3 | 10 Terrell Suggs, 19 Kyle Boller |
| Cardinals (5-11) | 2003 | (4-12) | -1 | 17 Bryant Johnson, 18 Calvin Pace |
| Bears (4-12) | 2003 | (7-9) | 3 | 14 Michael Haynes, 22 Rex Grossman |
| Raiders (11-5) | 2003 | (4-12) | -7 | 31 Nnamdi Asomugha, 32 Tyler Brayton |
| Bills (6-10) | 2004 | (9-7) | 3 | 13 Lee Evans, 22 J.P. Losman |
| Falcons (5-11) | 2004 | (11-5) | 6 | • 8 DeAngelo Hall, 29 Michael Jenkins |
| Texans (5-11) | 2004 | (7-9) | 2 | 10 Dunta Robinson, 27 Jason Babin |
| Lions (5-11) | 2004 | (6-10) | 1 | 7 Roy Williams, 30 Kevin Jones |
| Patriots (14-2) | 2004 | (14-2) | 0 | 21 Vince Wilfork, 32 Benjamin Watson |
| Vikings (8-8) | 2005 | (9-7) | 1 | 7 Troy Williamson, 18 Erasmus James |
| Washington (6-10) | 2005 | (10-6) | 4 | • 9 Carlos Rogers, 25 Jason Campbell |
| Cowboys (6-10) | 2005 | (9-7) | 3 | 11 Demarcus Ware, 20 Marcus Spears |
| Chargers (12-4) | 2005 | (9-7) | -3 | 12 Shawne Merriman, 28 Luis Castillo |
| Bills (5-11) | 2006 | (7-9) | 2 | 8 Donte Whitner, 26 John McCargo |
| Jets (4-12) | 2006 | (10-6) | 6 | • 4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson, 29 Nick Mangold |
| 49ers (4-12) | 2006 | (7-9) | 3 | 6 Vernon Davis, 22 Manny Lawson |
| 49ers (7-9) | 2007 | (5-11) | -2 | 11 Patrick Willis, 28 Joe Staley |
| Browns (4-12) | 2007 | (10-6) | 6 | • 3 Joe Thomas, 22 Brady Quinn |
| Panthers (7-9) | 2008 | (12-4) | 5 | • 13 Jonathan Stewart, 19 Jeff Otah |
| Falcons (4-12) | 2008 | (11-5) | 7 | • 3 Matt Ryan, 21 Sam Baker |
| Jets (4-12) | 2008 | (9-7) | 5 | • 6 Vernon Gholston, 30 Dustin Keller |
| Kansas City (4-12) | 2008 | (2-14) | -2 | 5 Glenn Dorsey, 15 Branden Albert |
| Cowboys (13-3) | 2008 | (9-7) | -4 | 22 Felix Jones, 25 Mike Jenkins |
| Broncos (8-8) | 2009 | (8-8) | 0 | 12 Knowshon Moreno, 18 Robert Ayers |
| Bills (7-9) | 2009 | (6-10) | -1 | 11 Aaron Maybin, 28 Eric Wood |
| Packers (6-10) | 2009 | (11-5) | 5 | • 9 B.J. Raji, 26 Clay Matthews |
| Lions (0-16) | 2009 | (2-14) | 2 | 1 Matthew Stafford, 20 Brandon Pettigrew |
| 49ers (8-8) | 2010 | (6-10) | -2 | 11 Anthony Davis, 17 Mike Iupati |
| Broncos (8-8) | 2010 | (4-12) | -4 | 22 Demaryius Thomas, 25 Tim Tebow |
| Seahawks (5-11) | 2010 | (7-9) | 2 | 6 Russell Okung, 14 Earl Thomas |
| Lions (2-14) | 2010 | (6-10) | 4 | • 2 Ndamukong Suh, 30 Jahvid Best |
| Saints (11-5) | 2011 | (13-3) | 2 | 24 Cameron Jordan, 28 Mark Ingram |
| Bengals (9-7) | 2012 | (10-6) | 1 | 17 Dre Kirkpatrick, 27 Kevin Zeitler |
| Buccaneers (4-12) | 2012 | (7-9) | 3 | 7 Mark Barron, 31 Doug Martin |
| Browns (4-12) | 2012 | (5-11) | 1 | 3 Trent Richardson, 22 Brandon Weeden |
| Vikings (3-13) | 2012 | (10-6) | 7 | • 4 Matt Kalil, 29 Harrison Smith |
| Patriots (13-3) | 2012 | (12-4) | -1 | 21 Chandler Jones, 25 Donta Hightower |
| Rams (7-8-1) | 2013 | (7-9) | -.5 | 8 Tavon Austin, 30 Alec Ogletree |
| Jets (6-10) | 2013 | (8-8) | 2 | 9 Dee Milliner, 13 Sheldon Richardson |
| Vikings (10-6) | 2013 | (5-10-1) | -4.5 | 23 S.Floyd, 25 X.Rhodes, 29 C.Patterson |
| Rams (7-9) | 2014 | (6-10) | -1 | 2 Greg Robinson, 13 Aaron Donald |
| Vikings (5-10-1) | 2014 | (7-9) | 1.5 | 9 Anthony Barr, 32 Teddy Bridgewater |
| Browns (4-12) | 2014 | (7-9) | 3 | 8 Justin Gilbert, 22 Johnny Manziel |
| Saints (7-9) | 2015 | (7-9) | 0 | 13 Andrus Peat, 31 Stephone Anthony |
| Browns (7-9) | 2015 | (3-13) | -4 | 12 Danny Shelton, 19 Cameron Erving |
| 49ers (5-11) | 2016 | (2-14) | -3 | 7 DeForest Buckner, 28 Joshua Garnett |
I’m not trying to throw cold water on these teams. With the Titans, they’ve got some nice pieces in place and could make the push into the playoffs. And with the Browns, they really have nowhere to go but up – after finishing just 1-15, they should be one of the league’s most improved teams.
But holding multiple first-round picks doesn’t appear to be a huge advantage. Instead, it’s just one of many variables.
—Ian Allan