Not enough that the Patriots are Super Bowl champs, again. They seem poised to win the offseason, too. Tom Brady thinks he's going to play another 5 years, and Jimmy Garoppolo is apparently going to fetch the Patriots a premium draft pick in the next month or so. At least.
Some of the talk -- like a report that it will take a "first-round pick, plus" to acquire Garoppolo -- sounds a little crazy. He's started all of two games the last three seasons. Matt Cassel, some will recall, was also supposed to bring back a first-round pick at a minimum in 2009. Instead he was sent to Kansas City for a second-round pick (and even that seemed like too much in fairly short order).
But enough smart people believe it's possible, reasonable even, that Garoppolo brings that kind of return from some quarterback-needy team that it has to be taken seriously. NFL Network's Charley Casserly believes Garoppolo is better than any of the college quarterbacks coming out this year. That might say as much about the questions surrounding the top college prospects as Garoppolo, but regardless. He started only two games last year, but did well enough in those contests -- both Patriots wins over credible Arizona and Miami teams -- to think he could be a solid NFL starter.
Unlike Cassel, who was a seventh-rounder, Garoppolo is a former second-round pick; not just some end of the draft guy. In his two starts he averaged over 70 percent completions and threw 4 TDs with no interceptions. He's an accurate guy who's now been learning and developing behind one of the all-time greats for three years.
So, he's going to be traded. Do not believe any idea that New England will keep him around for another year as a backup and franchise him after next season. Too cost-prohibitive, and a 2017 luxury they don't really need. A premium pick and perhaps another is the way this is going to go. Possible destinations (and I'm just guessing here):
Cleveland: Obviously, they don't have a quarterback, and they showed a reluctance a year ago to invest heavily in any of the top college prospects. Perhaps they should have selected Carson Wentz, but the fact that he seems to have panned out doesn't automatically make any of this year's incoming rookies any better. If the Browns aren't enamored of any of them, trading a pick -- they have the No. 1 overall and the No. 12, plus a ton of other early, mid and late picks -- or two for Garoppolo make sense. If they're interested in him.
San Francisco: This idea that new head coach Kyle Shanahan is interested in somehow stealing away Kirk Cousins is floating around, but it seems like nothing more than a San Francisco pipe dream. He's going to be franchised, possibly with the exclusive tag (which prevents any other team from even talking to him), and will stay in Washington. Since viable quarterbacks don't grow on trees, it's not hard to see Garoppolo surfacing on San Francisco's radar. He's not so dissimilar from that Ryan guy who just won the MVP for Shanahan.
Houston: This has been generally dismissed because Houston has so much invested financially in Brock Osweiler. He's scheduled to count $19 million against the cap in 2017. Fair enough. But hey, stuff happens. If Bill O'Brien is fond enough of Garropolo, perhaps he can find a way to trade for him, sign him to a deal that spreads out the signing bonus and cap hit over future years when Osweiler isn't a clunky albatross weighing the franchise down, and...well, it seems unlikely. He'd probably need to make financial cuts elsewhere and oh yeah find another team that sees some potential in Osweiler. A longshot.
Chicago: The Bears are looking to move on from Jay Cutler, of course, and probably don't see Matt Barkley as a long-term option. The Bears have to be viewed as a possibility. They have a couple of nice offensive pieces in place in Jordan Howard and (perhaps) Cameron Meredith and Kevin White.
Buffalo, NY Jets: Unlikely New England trades him within the AFC East.
Should be fun to see how this plays out over the next several weeks. Unfortunately, if you're the type who roots for the underdog, the big takeaway is that probably the Patriots will come out of this looking stronger.
While another team hopes they've landed the next Aaron Rodgers, rather than the next Matt Cassel.