The Vikings are prepared to let Adrian Peterson become a free agent. They might have him back, but they’re not at $18 million. That’s a lot of coin for a running back who averaged under 2 yards per carry last year.
Peterson might still be an above-average running back. His problems last year (besides being hurt for most of the year) were tied to a lesser offensive line. He was effective two years ago, running for 1,485 yards and 11 touchdowns.
But trouble is, Father Time runs down every back, and Peterson will be 32 years old in three weeks. Not many running backs remain effective at that age.
I am of the school of thought that the expiration date for running backs tends to be about 30. You see plenty of 30-year-olds putting up good numbers, but at 31 and older, things tend to drive up.
Check out this chart. It shows all running backs who ran for 1,500 yards at least once in their career. (That qualifies them to get on the list.) Then I’m listing how all of those backs have done in their seasons when they were 31 or older.
Only two of these backs (and there are 42 of them) had really big seasons. Both Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber ran for over 1,600 yards. A few others had good seasons, most notably Ricky Williams, Mike Anderson and DeAngelo Williams (all finished with over 1,200 total yards and double-digit touchdowns).
But there are many more misses than hits. I believe Peterson has probably completed his last 1,000-yard season.
We’ll see where he lands, but I’m guessing Peterson will be about 15th- or 20th-rated running back on my board in 2017.
| GREAT RUNNING BACKS IN THEIR LATER YEARS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | Rec | Run | YPC | Total | TD |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 31 | 245 | 1,697 | 4.6 | 1,942 | 14 |
| 2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 31 | 465 | 1,662 | 5.1 | 2,127 | 5 |
| 2009 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 32 | 264 | 1,121 | 4.7 | 1,385 | 13 |
| 2005 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 31 | 212 | 1,014 | 4.2 | 1,226 | 13 |
| 2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 32 | 367 | 907 | 4.5 | 1,274 | 11 |
| 2002 | Garrison Hearst, S.F. | 31 | 317 | 972 | 4.5 | 1,289 | 9 |
| 2000 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 31 | 79 | 1,203 | 4.1 | 1,282 | 9 |
| 2004 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 32 | 46 | 941 | 3.8 | 987 | 13 |
| 2016 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 33 | 277 | 1,025 | 3.9 | 1,302 | 8 |
| 2006 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 31 | 147 | 812 | 4.1 | 959 | 13 |
| 2015 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 32 | 267 | 967 | 3.7 | 1,234 | 7 |
| 2010 | LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ | 31 | 368 | 914 | 4.2 | 1,282 | 6 |
| 2004 | Emmitt Smith, Ariz. | 35 | 105 | 937 | 3.5 | 1,042 | 9 |
| 2007 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 31 | 58 | 1,202 | 5.4 | 1,260 | 5 |
| 2014 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 31 | 111 | 1,106 | 4.3 | 1,217 | 5 |
| 2002 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 33 | 89 | 975 | 3.8 | 1,064 | 5 |
| 2003 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 31 | 86 | 811 | 3.3 | 897 | 7 |
| 2001 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 32 | 116 | 1,021 | 3.9 | 1,137 | 3 |
| 2003 | Garrison Hearst, S.F. | 32 | 211 | 768 | 4.3 | 979 | 4 |
| 2014 | Steven Jackson, Atl. | 31 | 148 | 707 | 3.7 | 855 | 6 |
| 2008 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 31 | 219 | 659 | 4.1 | 878 | 5 |
| 2005 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 32 | 118 | 735 | 3.3 | 853 | 5 |
| 2005 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 31 | 197 | 451 | 3.8 | 648 | 7 |
| 2010 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 33 | 141 | 673 | 4.2 | 814 | 3 |
| 2005 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 33 | 40 | 368 | 3.3 | 408 | 9 |
| 2011 | LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ | 32 | 449 | 280 | 3.7 | 729 | 3 |
| 2016 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 33 | 118 | 343 | 3.5 | 461 | 6 |
| 2008 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 32 | 98 | 556 | 3.9 | 654 | 1 |
| 2011 | Ricky Williams, Balt. | 34 | 83 | 444 | 4.1 | 527 | 2 |
| 2009 | Fred Taylor, N.E. | 33 | 17 | 269 | 4.3 | 286 | 4 |
| 2008 | Ahman Green, Hou. | 31 | 32 | 294 | 4.0 | 326 | 3 |
| 2003 | Emmitt Smith, Ariz. | 34 | 107 | 256 | 2.8 | 363 | 2 |
| 2006 | Mike Anderson, Balt. | 32 | 54 | 183 | 4.7 | 237 | 1 |
| 2014 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 31 | 44 | 219 | 3.5 | 263 | 0 |
| 2009 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 32 | 18 | 160 | 3.9 | 178 | 1 |
| 2007 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 33 | 17 | 137 | 3.0 | 154 | 0 |
| 2010 | Fred Taylor, N.E. | 34 | 6 | 155 | 3.6 | 161 | 0 |
| 2004 | Garrison Hearst, Den. | 33 | 20 | 81 | 4.1 | 101 | 1 |
| 2009 | Edgerrin James, Sea. | 31 | 19 | 125 | 2.7 | 144 | 0 |
| 2015 | Steven Jackson, N.E. | 32 | 20 | 50 | 2.4 | 70 | 1 |
| 2016 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 31 | 8 | 72 | 1.9 | 80 | 0 |
| 2006 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 32 | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 |
(On the chart above, by the way, they’re in order of fantasy points, using the scoring system of 6 for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards.)
—Ian Allan