You may think of the hodgepodge of players you draft as a team, but of course they do not really win or lose together. When one of your players drives home a run and another scores, it hardly matters if the two things happen on the same play (Bryce Harper plates Daniel Murphy) or in different games in different time zones. There are no high-fives in fantasy baseball.
But there is still value in considering players together, taking a broad view of what is out there to be drafted instead of reducing the sport to individual player writeups. Toward that end, what follows is a quick tour of the fantasy positions as we head into 2017. Read through and you will learn not only what I think of a few individuals, but also what I am trying to accomplish more generally in filling their positions on my teams. Ahem. My “teams.”
There are fewer useful hitters at CATCHER than at any other position, mostly because playing catcher is harder than playing the other positions. Catchers take a season-long beating; even the ones most integral to their real teams’ success need a day off every week. So you start out knowing your guy will probably not play on Sunday, or whichever day some other guy is scheduled to pitch. You would never own a hitter at a different position under the same restrictions. Six-sevenths of Mike Trout is not Mike Trout.
But when so many catchers will play so little, it pays to own the ones who will play the most. Maybe you lack the stomach to draft Gary Sanchez, veteran of 55 major-league games, where our projections say he should go. Fine. Get yourself a mule instead, Salvador Perez or Stephen Vogt, and at least own a guy who only misses one game per week, not two or three.
FIRST BASE is not the position you remember it being. The best guys here are now 34 (Edwin Encarnacion) or about to turn 34 (Miguel Cabrera), or their value is partly tied to speed that has always seemed less like speed! and more like “speed” (Paul Goldschmidt). You can pay big and still own a deeply flawed hitter (Chris Davis), or pay bigger and really need more than a hitter has done previously (Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo).
With the top of the position falling short of where it used to, there is less risk this year in going a little cheaper here and saving your bigger bucks — and there also happen to be plenty of appealing cheaper options. Carlos Santana may be baseball’s least appreciated star and is playing for a new contract. Eric Thames produced far better numbers over the last few seasons in Korean baseball than Jung-ho Kang ever did, and Kang’s numbers have translated instantly to .273/.355/.483 in the majors. And now Kang’s visa-related absence from the Pirates, which could drag on all year, ensures that Josh Bell — whose maturity at the plate was on full display in a 2016 debut that saw him rope line drives all over the field and walk more than he struck out — will never leave the field.
There are MIDDLE INFIELDERS for every taste at the moment, from batting champions (the three highest batting averages of 2016 all belonged to second basemen, with DJ LeMahieu edging Daniel Murphy in the NL and Jose Altuve cruising to the AL crown) to more traditional speed merchants (Dee Gordon, Jonathan Villar) to some of the best high-average power hitters in the game (Corey Seager certainly qualifies, and after 24 home runs a year ago I might nominate Altuve here as well).
With so many hitters offering such varied 5x5 contributions, it is important to remember that the real-life contributions of some players — including some very good players — do not really show in our categories. Try not to get caught up in the hype surrounding Dansby Swanson, for instance. Most projection systems see the less-hyped Tim Anderson as basically the same hitter, only with a dozen more stolen bases.
Unlike first base, THIRD BASE is the position you remember — but what I really mean is that third base is the position you remember first base being. Three of the very best high-average power hitters are here, and two of the three (sorry, Josh Donaldson) may not have peaked yet. As exciting as the prospect of a new peak for National League MVP Kris Bryant is, the one that gets me going is soon-to-be 26-year-old Nolan Arenado, whose career year (whenever it arrives) should resemble those pinball seasons from vintage Rockies like Larry Walker. A .325 AVG with 50 HR is in play for the peak Arenado. I am only half-joking when I write that Hack Wilson and his 191 RBI could be in play, too.
I do like several on-the-come plays at the position — Alex Bregman and Miguel Sano chief among them — but unlike at the other corner, saving money is not an explicit part of my strategy here.
There are more players in the OUTFIELD than at the other positions, and that makes this the best place to shop for bargains. There is never any shortage of waiver-wire outfielders available to cover for a failed speculation, and unlike the worst pitchers, the worst outfielders can only undo so much of the good work done by others.
When shopping for any bargain hitter, it pays to search the top halves of the highest-scoring lineups in real baseball. You want a guy who will come to the plate often enough to pile up numbers across categories — think George Springer ’16, who set new career marks in HR, RBI and R without being especially good — and you really want him if his teammates are good enough to juice his run production. You want Andrew Benintendi, the new No. 2 hitter for the Red Sox. Strip away every trace of hype and you want Mitch Haniger, too, who should play a ton for the Mariners and could worm his way toward the heart of the order. You want these guys because getting one at a discount (that part is crucial; Kyle Schwarber ticks other boxes but is unlikely to sell cheap) would free up cash you need to get a true stud to go with him. Because you also want Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. Call it a hunch.
Teams that win games have STARTING PITCHERS that win games. The best teams in the AL (alphabetically) are Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Seattle and Toronto. Maybe Texas, but any team that spins a mere plus-8 run differential into a 95-67 record has some regression coming. The best teams in the NL are still the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, San Francisco and Washington, and the Cardinals always win. A frontloaded rotation is pretty much the whole reason I like the Mets, so I am in fact recommending Mets starters because I like the Mets because of their starters. Spot the gap in that logic.
Almost all pitchers are better in their home parks than on the road — the entire major leagues produced a 4.02 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home in 2016, 4.37 and 1.36 on the road — but not all home parks are created equal. Coors Field in Denver is the reason why that last sentence began with the word “Almost.” The best places on earth to pitch are Houston, Los Angeles (Anaheim or Chavez Ravine), Miami, San Francisco, Seattle and Tampa Bay. Also Wrigley Field in Chicago when the wind is right, and Oakland except that after the game you still find yourself in Oakland.
Once a CLOSER has his manager’s full confidence, his season tends to go in one of only two directions: glory or flaming disaster. The pull of the mythical Closer Mentality — some guys just have it — can be so strong that managers will ride out lesser disasters as long as they never quite ignite. Phillies fans know this too well, having lived through Mitch Williams ’92 and Jose Mesa ’03 and Brad Lidge ’09, each of whom made Jeanmar Gomez ’16 look like Dennis Eckersley. So the trick to owning saves is to find almost any pitcher who will not completely burn out of the ninth inning. The one stat I consider most useful for separating those who will stand the heat from those who will go down in flames is BB/9.
Yes, obviously, Kenley Jansen with his 13.6 K/9 is the better pitcher — but Mark Melancon, now working in the forgiving confines of AT&T Park, is nearly as safe by my reckoning (1.5 BB/9 in 2016 to Jansen’s 1.4). Also safe, among those who tallied at least 10 saves a year ago: Brandon Kintzler (1.3 BB/9), Kelvin Herrera (1.5), Roberto Osuna (1.7), Seung-hwan Oh (2.0). Not safe: David Robertson (4.6), A.J. Ramos (4.9), Craig Kimbrel (5.1), Fernando Rodney (5.1). Rodney’s 5.1 was infinitesimally worse than Kimbrel’s, incidentally, and he now pitches for a new team and thus for a manager whose full confidence he may not have. All factors including Pete Mackanin’s inextinguishable faith in Gomez considered, Rodney has to be the likeliest closer to lose his job in 2017.
Enough. Be sure to pick up our March 30 update, available now for your downloading pleasure, and go get ’em this season.