The Rams are turning to Sean McVay, and he’s supposed to be one of the league’s emerging offensive gurus – another Jon Gruden or Mike Shanahan. But it’s definitely a fixer-upper he’s taking over. The Rams ranked last in 2016 in both scoring and yards. How much improvement can realistically be hoped for?
A coach can only do so much with scheme and play-calling. Personnel is improvement, and the Rams are definitely in rebuilding mode. They’ve got to figure out the all-important quarterback position (where Jared Goff may or may not be the answer).
At the same time, the NFL waters are constantly swirling, with teams getting better and worse.
So let’s look at some historical numbers. For this one, I’m looking at the last 20 years, and I’m looking at previous teams that ranked no higher than 30th in both scoring and in offensive yards. Then we can look at how those teams fared the next season and see how many improved and how many remained down near the bottom.
The Browns also get caught in this net, so the study also applies to them. As Andy was pointing out last week, they have an unusually good offensive line – maybe a top-5 group – which could help fuel a turnaround.
Anyway, 27 other teams in the last 20 years have had the same kind of feeble offenses.
Thirteen of said teams (almost half) were able to move out of the bottom 10 in scoring. Eight finished above-average in scoring (and four moved all the way up into the top 10).
Looking instead at yards (total yards – rushing and passing) eight of the 27 teams were able to get out of the bottom 10, with all but one of those teams moving up to above average.
Of these 27 teams, which were all pretty horrible, six were able to finish above average in both yards and scoring.
Only five of the teams, meanwhile, went on to again rank in the bottom 5 in both yards and scoring.
So while common sense and logic indicates these teams will be terrible, the historical trends indicate it’s more likely there will be at least some upward movement.
On the chart, a black dot indicates the team move up to above-average in scoring or yards. If there are two black dots, that means they moved up in both categories.
| AWFUL OFFENSES -- THE NEXT YEAR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Rnk | Yards | Rnk |
| 1998 | New Orleans | 19.1 | 21 | 279 | 28 |
| 1999 | Philadelphia | 17.0 | 25T | 239 | 30 |
| 2000 | Cleveland | 10.1 | 31 | 221 | 31 |
| 2001 | Cleveland | 17.8 | 25 | 260 | 31 |
| 2003 | Houston | 15.9 | 28 | 269 | 31 |
| 2003 | • Dallas | 18.1 | 21 | 323 | 15 |
| 2003 | •• Carolina | 20.3 | 15 | 321 | 16 |
| 2004 | • Buffalo | 24.7 | 7 | 293 | 25 |
| 2005 | Chicago | 16.3 | 26T | 256 | 29 |
| 2005 | •• Washington | 22.4 | 13 | 331 | 11 |
| 2006 | San Francisco | 18.6 | 24 | 304 | 26 |
| 2007 | Oakland | 17.7 | 23 | 295 | 25 |
| 2007 | •• Cleveland | 25.1 | 8 | 351 | 8 |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 18.2 | 26 | 309 | 24 |
| 2008 | Buffalo | 21.0 | 23 | 305 | 25 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | 21.2 | 22 | 311 | 23 |
| 2009 | Cleveland | 15.3 | 29 | 260 | 32 |
| 2009 | Cincinnati | 19.1 | 22 | 309 | 24 |
| 2010 | •• Oakland | 25.6 | 6 | 355 | 10 |
| 2011 | •• Carolina | 25.4 | 5T | 390 | 7 |
| 2012 | St. Louis | 18.7 | 25 | 329 | 23 |
| 2013 | •• Arizona | 23.7 | 16T | 346 | 12 |
| 2014 | Jacksonville | 15.6 | 32 | 262 | 32 |
| 2014 | Tampa Bay | 17.3 | 29 | 272 | 30 |
| 2015 | Oakland | 22.4 | 17 | 334 | 24 |
| 2015 | • Jacksonville | 23.5 | 14 | 349 | 18 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 19.3 | 27 | 308 | 31 |
| 2017 | L.A. Rams | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | Cleveland | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan