Ian Allan

April 06, 2017

David Johnson

Gauging injury rates of heavily used running backs

David Johnson had 373 touches last year, and with a heavily used back like that, injuries are always a concern. Johnson ended up hurting his knee, recall, in their final game last year. But how big of an injury risk are these kind of players?

We can poke around with some of the numbers – running backs who’ve been in similar situations.

Ends up 373 actually isn’t quite as many touches as you might think. Barely gets him into the top 50 for touches by a running back in this century. And a lot of Johnson’s handles where in the passing game, rather than slamming between the tackles. But let’s take a look.

Since 2000, 85 running backs have handled the ball at least 360 times in a season. (Actually, 87, but Ricky Williams and Tiki Barber chose not to play the next year, so I’m leaving them out).

Of those 85, 29 (about a third) didn’t have 300 touches the next year. That’s a pretty big dropoff. Painting with a broad brush, these guys didn’t tend to justify where they were selected in fantasy leagues. I’ve got them tagged with black dots.

On the other hand, 38 of the players (just short of half) came back the next year and again had 350-plus touches. There were able to hold up pretty well physically. I’ve got them in bold.

The remaining 18 backs finished with 300-349 touches. Call them the purgatory backs – not as heavily used but not necessarily disappointments either.

Most recently, the trend has been for running backs to miss. Of the last 10 who’ve had 360-plus touches, 70 percent have had a big dropoff the next year. Only one came back the next year and again had a big workload (Matt Forte in 2014).

But looking back at the previous years, the track record for these kind of backs has been pretty solid.

If you don’t want David Johnson on your team, I’ll be happy to stick him on mine.

On the chart below, you’re looking not at the player’s big year, but how he did the following season. The age is as of September 1 in said season.

RUNNING BACKS WITH 360 TOUCHES (THE NEXT YEAR)
Year	Running back	Age	Rec	Run	Total	TD
2001	Curtis Martin, NYJ	28	320	1,513	1,833	10
2001	Stephen Davis, Wash.	27	205	1,432	1,637	5
2001	Eddie George, Tenn.	27	279	939	1,218	5
2001	• Jerome Bettis, Pitt.	29	48	1,072	1,120	4
2001	• Edgerrin James, Ind.	23	193	662	855	3
2001	• James Stewart, Det.	29	242	685	927	2
2002	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	23	489	1,683	2,172	15
2002	Ricky Williams, Mia.	25	363	1,853	2,216	17
2002	Priest Holmes, K.C.	28	672	1,615	2,287	24
2002	Eddie George, Tenn.	28	255	1,165	1,420	14
2002	Corey Dillon, Cin.	27	298	1,311	1,609	7
2002	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	25	460	1,175	1,635	18
2002	Ahman Green, G.B.	25	393	1,240	1,633	9
2002	Curtis Martin, NYJ	29	362	1,094	1,456	7
2002	• Stephen Davis, Wash.	28	142	820	962	8
2003	Ricky Williams, Mia.	26	351	1,372	1,723	10
2003	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	24	516	1,641	2,157	8
2003	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	24	725	1,645	2,370	17
2003	Jamal Lewis, Balt.	24	205	2,066	2,271	14
2003	Priest Holmes, K.C.	29	690	1,420	2,110	27
2003	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	26	295	1,435	1,730	16
2003	Travis Henry, Buff.	23	158	1,356	1,514	11
2003	Tiki Barber, NYG	28	461	1,216	1,677	3
2003	Eddie George, Tenn.	29	163	1,031	1,194	5
2003	• Corey Dillon, Cin.	28	71	541	612	2
2004	Curtis Martin, NYJ	31	245	1,697	1,942	14
2004	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	25	441	1,335	1,776	18
2004	Edgerrin James, Ind.	26	483	1,548	2,031	9
2004	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	27	170	1,696	1,866	20
2004	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	25	228	1,074	1,302	9
2004	• Ahman Green, G.B.	27	275	1,163	1,438	8
2004	• Fred Taylor, Jac.	28	345	1,224	1,569	3
2004	• Jamal Lewis, Balt.	25	116	1,006	1,122	7
2004	• Priest Holmes, K.C.	30	187	892	1,079	15
2004	• Travis Henry, Buff.	24	45	326	371	0
2005	Tiki Barber, NYG	30	530	1,860	2,390	11
2005	Edgerrin James, Ind.	27	337	1,506	1,843	14
2005	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	26	370	1,462	1,832	20
2005	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	28	78	1,880	1,958	28
2005	Clinton Portis, Wash.	23	216	1,516	1,732	11
2005	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	25	90	1,458	1,548	12
2005	• Domanick Davis, Hou.	24	337	976	1,313	6
2005	• Curtis Martin, NYJ	32	118	735	853	5
2005	• Corey Dillon, N.E.	30	181	733	914	13
2006	Larry Johnson, K.C.	26	410	1,789	2,199	19
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	27	508	1,815	2,323	31
2006	Tiki Barber, NYG	31	465	1,662	2,127	5
2006	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	28	217	1,159	1,376	6
2006	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	26	124	1,309	1,433	12
2006	• Willis McGahee, Buff.	24	156	990	1,146	6
2006	• Shaun Alexander, Sea.	29	48	896	944	7
2006	• Clinton Portis, Wash.	24	170	523	693	7
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	28	475	1,474	1,949	18
2007	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	29	204	1,222	1,426	7
2007	Willie Parker, Pitt.	26	164	1,316	1,480	2
2007	Frank Gore, S.F.	24	436	1,102	1,538	6
2007	• Steven Jackson, St.L.	24	271	1,002	1,273	6
2007	• Larry Johnson, K.C.	27	186	559	745	4
2007	• Rudi Johnson, Cin.	27	110	497	607	4
2008	Clinton Portis, Wash.	26	218	1,487	1,705	9
2008	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	29	426	1,110	1,536	12
2008	• Brian Westbrook, Phil.	28	402	936	1,338	14
2009	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	24	436	1,383	1,819	18
2009	Matt Forte, Chi.	23	471	929	1,400	4
2009	• Michael Turner, Atl.	27	35	871	906	10
2009	• Clinton Portis, Wash.	27	57	494	551	2
2010	Steven Jackson, St.L.	27	383	1,241	1,624	6
2010	Chris Johnson, Tenn.	24	245	1,364	1,609	12
2010	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	25	317	1,324	1,641	7
2010	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	25	341	1,298	1,639	13
2011	Ray Rice, Balt.	24	704	1,364	2,068	15
2011	Arian Foster, Hou.	25	617	1,224	1,841	12
2011	Chris Johnson, Tenn.	25	418	1,047	1,465	4
2011	Steven Jackson, St.L.	28	333	1,145	1,478	6
2012	Ray Rice, Balt.	25	478	1,143	1,621	10
2012	• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	27	86	414	500	2
2013	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	28	171	1,266	1,437	11
2013	• Arian Foster, Hou.	27	183	542	725	2
2013	• Doug Martin, T.B.	24	66	456	522	1
2014	Matt Forte, Chi.	28	808	1,038	1,846	10
2014	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	26	155	1,319	1,474	5
2015	• Matt Forte, Chi.	29	389	898	1,287	7
2015	• DeMarco Murray, Phil.	27	322	702	1,024	7
2015	• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	23	136	556	692	3
2016	• Adrian Peterson, Minn.	31	8	72	80	0

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