I think it’s time for the Seahawks to move on from Jermaine Kearse. He’s had some notable postseason catches for them (including game-winning touchdowns in two NFC Championship games and that weird juggling catch against New England in the Super Bowl) but overall he’s just not good enough.
Kearse caught only 46 percent of the passes thrown his way last year. Among the 92 players with at least 50 targets last year, only five were less effective. I’m not sure how to explain that (Kearse was up at 9th on the same list last year, catching 72 percent).
But Kearse doesn’t have great speed and isn’t winning on enough of the contested balls. I don’t think he’s as good as Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson, so I’m expecting those will be the receivers who join Doug Baldwin on the field on most downs. That will need to play out at training camp, but Richardson was a lot better than Kearse in the final month of last season.
Kearse has been particularly bad around the goal line, and that’s been a problem all along. Over the last three years, he’s been the intended target on 20 passes when the team has been inside the 10-yard line. Remarkably, he’s caught only 2 of those passes – the kind of number you might expect if they were pulling volunteers out of the stands.
According to our records, here are the receiving stats for all players with at least 15 attempts in the last three years. I am including 2-point conversions in these (even though those aren’t official NFL catches and stats). If a player caught a 2-point conversion, they’re worked into the touchdowns (“7+1”, for example, means a player caught 7 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion).
The final column shows not the completion percentage but the percentage of pass attempts resulting in a successful 2-point conversion or touchdown. So that stat is slightly biased against dink-and-dunk receivers who might catch a 5-yard ball to get their team closer to the end zone – such a play gets no more credit than an incompletion in that column.
But however you slice it, Kearse has really struggled in that area. It’s time to phase him out of the lineup and go with Richardson (who had a really impressive contested catch on a short-yardage touchdown in the playoff win against the Lions).
| RECEIVING INSIDE 10 (last 3 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Com | TD | Pct |
| Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 15 | 11 | 8+1 | 60% |
| Julius Thomas, Den.-Jac. | 22 | 14 | 13 | 59% |
| Mike Wallace, Min.-Balt. | 17 | 11 | 9+1 | 59% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 24 | 14 | 12+2 | 58% |
| Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 22 | 14 | 12 | 55% |
| Allen Robinson, Jac. | 30 | 17 | 14+2 | 53% |
| Calvin Johnson, Det. | 15 | 9 | 8 | 53% |
| Coby Fleener, Ind.-N.O. | 19 | 13 | 9+1 | 53% |
| Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 27 | 14 | 14 | 52% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 36 | 24 | 17+1 | 50% |
| Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 18 | 10 | 8+1 | 50% |
| Jimmy Graham, N.O.-Sea. | 18 | 10 | 9 | 50% |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 16 | 11 | 8 | 50% |
| Antonio Gates, S.D. | 29 | 14 | 14 | 48% |
| Martellus Bennett, Chi.-N.E. | 21 | 12 | 8+2 | 48% |
| James Jones, Oak.-G.B. | 19 | 10 | 7+2 | 47% |
| Seth Roberts, Oak. | 15 | 9 | 4+3 | 47% |
| Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 26 | 16 | 11+1 | 46% |
| Jordan Reed, Wash. | 26 | 16 | 12 | 46% |
| Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 16 | 10 | 7 | 44% |
| Jason Witten, Dall. | 16 | 9 | 7 | 44% |
| Roddy White, Atl. | 16 | 9 | 7 | 44% |
| Golden Tate, Det. | 24 | 18 | 9+1 | 42% |
| Michael Crabtree, S.F.-Oak. | 22 | 11 | 8+1 | 41% |
| Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 32 | 18 | 13 | 41% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 20 | 10 | 5+3 | 40% |
| Eric Decker, NYJ | 28 | 15 | 11 | 39% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 28 | 14 | 11 | 39% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 46 | 25 | 15+3 | 39% |
| Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 23 | 11 | 9 | 39% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 18 | 8 | 6+1 | 39% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Cin.-Atl. | 16 | 8 | 4+2 | 38% |
| Matt Forte, Chi.-NYJ | 16 | 8 | 4+2 | 38% |
| Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 27 | 17 | 8+2 | 37% |
| Gary Barnidge, Clev. | 19 | 7 | 6+1 | 37% |
| Brandon LaFell, N.E.-Cin. | 19 | 9 | 7 | 37% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 25 | 15 | 7+2 | 36% |
| Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 17 | 6 | 6 | 35% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 20 | 11 | 7 | 35% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 29 | 19 | 9+1 | 34% |
| Heath Miller, Pitt. | 18 | 12 | 4+2 | 33% |
| Andre Johnson, Ind.-Ten. | 21 | 10 | 7 | 33% |
| Larry Donnell, NYG | 18 | 9 | 6 | 33% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 18 | 8 | 6 | 33% |
| Jermaine Gresham, Cin.-Ari. | 15 | 7 | 5 | 33% |
| Terrance Williams, Dall. | 15 | 6 | 5 | 33% |
| Brandon Marshall, Chi.-NYJ | 28 | 12 | 9 | 32% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 22 | 12 | 6+1 | 32% |
| Greg Olsen, Car. | 22 | 11 | 6+1 | 32% |
| Allen Hurns, Jac. | 16 | 8 | 5 | 31% |
| Dez Bryant, Dall. | 26 | 8 | 8 | 31% |
| Julian Edelman, N.E. | 27 | 12 | 7+1 | 30% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 24 | 11 | 7 | 29% |
| Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 28 | 9 | 8 | 29% |
| Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 39 | 16 | 9+2 | 28% |
| Eddie Royal, S.D.-Chi. | 18 | 9 | 5 | 28% |
| Rueben Randle, NYG | 19 | 8 | 5 | 26% |
| Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 24 | 8 | 6 | 25% |
| Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 17 | 7 | 2+2 | 24% |
| Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 18 | 4 | 3+1 | 22% |
| Anquan Boldin, S.F.-Det. | 23 | 9 | 5 | 22% |
| Zach Ertz, Phil. | 16 | 5 | 3 | 19% |
| Charles Clay, Mia.-Buf. | 19 | 5 | 3 | 16% |
| Jermaine Kearse, Sea. | 20 | 2 | 2 | 10% |
While we’re on the subject, the Seahawks haven’t used Graham much in that area. That’s a surprise, since that was the first talking point when they signed him – how he was going to be a big red zone weapon. In 27 games with the Seahawks, Graham has been the intended target on 7 passes inside the 10, resulting in 3 catches and 2 TDs. In comparison, Graham caught 7 of 11 passes in his final season in New Orleans, all for touchdowns.
And in part because of Kearse’s struggles, Russell Wilson hasn’t been very effective around the goal line. Inside the 10 over the last three years, Wilson has completed only 31 percent, with only 29 perent of his pass plays resulting in scores. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass plays, that’s the worst in the league – lower than Kaepernick, Cutler, Fitzpatrick, Bortles, Hoyer and all the other mediocre quarterbacks out there.
If you parse out Kearse’s stats, Wilson has been more of a middle-of-the-pack passer in that area of the field.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10 (last 3 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Comp | Int | sack | TD+2 | Pct |
| Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 53 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 26+3 | 54% |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 100 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 40+6 | 46% |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 116 | 70 | 3 | 6 | 49+1 | 41% |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 109 | 71 | 1 | 8 | 44+3 | 40% |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 127 | 84 | 2 | 5 | 52+0 | 39% |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 119 | 63 | 6 | 4 | 48+0 | 39% |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 130 | 77 | 2 | 4 | 49+3 | 39% |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 168 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 61+6 | 39% |
| Philip Rivers, S.D. | 114 | 60 | 5 | 4 | 43+2 | 38% |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 78 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 26+4 | 38% |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 118 | 69 | 1 | 6 | 45+2 | 38% |
| Brian Hoyer, 3 tms | 49 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20+0 | 38% |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 136 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 38+14 | 38% |
| Blake Bortles, Jac. | 101 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 36+3 | 38% |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 71 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 26+2 | 37% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, Hou.-NYJ | 75 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 28+0 | 37% |
| Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 98 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 36+1 | 37% |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 76 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 27+1 | 36% |
| Wilson (no Kearse) | 64 | 33 | 1 | 6 | 23+1 | 34% |
| Sam Bradford, Phi.-Min. | 54 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 19+0 | 34% |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 92 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 27+5 | 33% |
| Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 92 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 29+2 | 33% |
| Peyton Manning, Den. | 69 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 21+2 | 32% |
| Jay Cutler, Chi. | 95 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 26+5 | 32% |
| Josh McCown, T.B.-Cle. | 46 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 13+3 | 31% |
| Alex Smith, K.C. | 77 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 21+4 | 31% |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 113 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 34+2 | 31% |
| Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 55 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 16+1 | 30% |
| Wilson (with Kearse) | 84 | 35 | 1 | 6 | 25+1 | 29% |