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Dallas Cowboys

Is Dak Prescott on the road to greatness?

I understand that Dak Prescott may be considered somewhat unproven. He’s a former fourth-round pick, and he’s only done it for one year – and with a really good cast around him. But he sure got off to a nice start.

He completed 68 percent last year, with a 23-4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. Those are the best ever for rookies.

But focus for right now on his 104.9 passer rating (also the best ever for a rookie). Generally when a quarterback has a good passer rating as a rookie, that means he’s probably going to be good. When a rookie has a poor passer rating (like Jared Goff last year) that’s troubling.

Below see all 39 quarterbacks since 2000 who’ve attempted at least 200 passes in their first year. Of the quarterbacks with passer ratings above 80, only one can be called a bust (Robert Griffin III). He was kind of a special case, with Washington using him in an offense the NFL wasn’t ready for. He also has been set back by knee injuries.

But of the other 12 quarterbacks with passer ratings over 80, there are no busts. Mike Glennon and Nick Foles are on there, of course. Those guys aren’t All-Pros. But both were selected in the third round.

On the chart below, some of the names are in bold. For those quarterbacks, I am of the opinion that if we could turn the clock back, there is no way any team would consider taking them anywhere near as high as where they were chosen. Glennon and Foles, I am confident, wouldn’t make it through the first three rounds of those drafts, so they’re not in bold.

I didn’t put Bridgewater in bold. He had the big knee injury last year, of course, but he was really playing well in the preseason – I thought he was headed for a nice year.

Turning our attention to the bottom of the table, 19 quarterbacks had passer ratings under 75. Of that group, only one of those quarterbacks was able to really flip things around and become a big star – Matthew Stafford.

I’ve got three other quarterbacks down there that aren’t bolded yet. Goff has only played one year, so it’s too early to give up on him. Bortles may end up getting bolded, but it’s also early in his career – he’s at least put up some numbers. With Orton, he goes down as a good fourth-round pick – not a superstar, but a functional quarterback who had a solid career (would never last until the fourth round if teams could re-pick that draft).

Bottom line: I think Prescott is for real. I am in the process of scouting teams and players, but I am pretty confident Prescott at a minimum will be one of the top 14 quarterbacks on my board.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2000
YearPlayerPctYardsTDIntRate
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.68%3,667234104.9
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.66%3,200205102.4
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.64%3,1182610100.0
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.66%2,621171198.1
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.62%2,818191091.5
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.61%3,440161187.7
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.64%2,919141285.2
2011Cam Newton, Car.60%4,051211784.5
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.58%4,042221584.2
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.59%2,60819983.9
2012Nick Foles, Phil.63%1,6996582.1
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.58%3,398201380.4
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.60%2,971141280.3
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.62%3,782161479.3
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.59%1,97211977.7
2014Derek Carr, Oak.58%3,270211276.6
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.54%4,374231876.5
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.60%3,512181576.5
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.58%3,294121376.1
2010Colt McCoy, Clev.61%1,5766974.5
2006Matt Leinart, Ariz.57%2,547111274.0
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.57%2,819141673.0
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.57%3,385141772.6
2002Patrick Ramsey, Wash.52%1,5399871.8
2007Trent Edwards, Buff.56%1,6307870.4
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.54%1,853131370.1
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.59%2,908111769.5
2006Vince Young, Tenn.52%2,199121366.7
2013Geno Smith, NYJ56%3,046122166.5
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.51%2,214121165.4
2016Jared Goff, L.A.55%1,0895763.6
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ54%2,444122063.0
2002David Carr, Hou.52%2,59291562.8
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.52%1,2607962.4
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.53%2,267132061.0
2002Joey Harrington, Det.50%2,294121659.9
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.54%1,855101859.8
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.52%1,86991359.7
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.53%1,5583958.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index