In researching for the magazine, part of the process is watching games and reading and listening to as much as you can. But I also like to prepare dozens and dozens of different charts. I like to parse the statistics different ways and see where it leads. Looking today, for example, at how running backs performed early in the season versus late.
On this one, I’ve put together a list of the 32 running backs who carried the ball at least 50 times in the first half of the season (their first eight games) and also carried it at least 50 times in the second half of the year. Then I can compare the yards per carry average and see who the best (and worst) guys were.
Near the bottom I see a couple of big backs who used to play at Louisiana State – Spencer Ware and Jeremy Hill. Those guys were really plodding along at the end of the season, and I’m pretty confident each of those teams will use a good draft pick on running back who’ll be expected to start ahead of them (I expect both of those teams would love to pick up the bigger, faster, better back who’s coming out of that same school – Leonard Fournette).
I also see Jay Ajayi down near the bottom. He had a couple of 200-yard games early but really tailed off, averaging almost 2 fewer yards per attempt. I don’t think the Dolphins are looking to pull the plug on Ajayi, though.
There’s one other back whose average declined by over a yard: Devontae Booker. At the end of the year, they signed Justin Forsett, who played more in some of their final games. Booker is more talented than C.J. Anderson, but if I had to guess right now, I would expect Anderson will be the opener for the Broncos, with Booker coming off the bench (with the opportunity to play his way into a larger role).
At the other end of the scale, I see Hyde, Gordon, Jennings, Forte and Mathews as the biggest improvers. I wish I could hold this up as some kind of evidence that those guys are on the rise or whatever, but I don’t see it. Hyde and Gordon are good enough backs, I think, but not really because of how they played in the final eight weeks relative to the first. The Giants released Jennings, and I don’t think he’ll play in another game. I’m guessing Forte and Mathews don’t start in Week 1 either.
But that’s how it kind of works with these stat charts. You put them together, then you skim over the numbers and see what you get.
Final thought: I see that in Tennessee Derrick Henry got a lot better late in the year, while DeMarco Murray got a lot worse. I see that being more of time-share this year, with Henry’s role increasing.
| RUNNERS (SECOND HALF OF SEASON) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | 1st | 2nd | Diff |
| Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 3.94 | 5.18 | 1.24 |
| Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 3.55 | 4.57 | 1.02 |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG | 2.63 | 3.63 | 1.01 |
| Matt Forte, NYJ | 3.45 | 4.44 | .99 |
| Ryan Mathews, Phil. | 3.78 | 4.73 | .96 |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 3.97 | 4.85 | .88 |
| Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 3.00 | 3.74 | .74 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 4.78 | 5.41 | .63 |
| Derrick Henry, Tenn. | 4.17 | 4.72 | .55 |
| LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 4.53 | 5.01 | .48 |
| Matt Asiata, Minn. | 3.20 | 3.50 | .30 |
| LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 3.78 | 4.00 | .22 |
| Todd Gurley, L.A. | 3.09 | 3.29 | .20 |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 5.10 | 5.28 | .18 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 4.68 | 4.83 | .15 |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 5.34 | 5.48 | .14 |
| Tim Hightower, N.O. | 4.06 | 4.18 | .13 |
| Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 3.73 | 3.81 | .07 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 5.03 | 5.10 | .07 |
| Terrance West, Balt. | 4.01 | 4.01 | .00 |
| Latavius Murray, Oak. | 4.04 | 4.04 | .00 |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 3.61 | 3.53 | -.08 |
| Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 4.94 | 4.65 | -.29 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 4.16 | 3.79 | -.37 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 4.52 | 3.90 | -.62 |
| Frank Gore, Ind. | 4.22 | 3.60 | -.62 |
| Chris Ivory, Jac. | 4.07 | 3.44 | -.63 |
| DeMarco Murray, Tenn. | 4.73 | 3.99 | -.73 |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 4.26 | 3.02 | -1.24 |
| Spencer Ware, K.C. | 5.01 | 3.66 | -1.35 |
| Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 5.98 | 4.09 | -1.89 |
| Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 4.95 | 2.75 | -2.21 |
—Ian Allan