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Factoid

Houston Texans

Texans offense piles up field goals but not touchdowns

Houston had the unusual offense last year, consistently stalling for field goals. The offense attempted 41 field goals while scoring only 23 touchdowns. No other team finished with more than 9 more field goal attempts than touchdowns. So that’s seemingly a nice selling point for Nick Novak, who knocked in 127 points last year.

But does this kind of stat translate? That is, should we all be trying to select kickers from offenses that last year produced 10 or 15 more field goals than touchdowns? Let’s take a moment and look at the numbers.

In this century, 36 other offenses have generated at least 10 more field goal tries than touchdowns. Looking at what those teams did the next year, only 12 the next season ranked in the top 10 in kicker scoring. That’s a third – about what you would expect from any random sample. On the chart below, I have those teams in bold.

Nine of those 36 teams (a quarter) finished ranked somewhere between 11th and 20th. Call those teams middle-of-the-pack finishers. And the remaining 15 of the clubs (designated with black dots) ranked in the bottom-10 in scoring at the position – they were fantasy liabilities.

I don’t, therefore, see FG-TD ratio as a particularly meaningful stat. Especially in this case, with the Texans having a new quarterback this season. Not sure who that guy will be, but it could give the offense a much different personality.

More important, I think, is the overall quality of the Houston team. It looks like a pretty solid team that will be in the thick of the race for the AFC South. Better teams tend to score more kicking points, so I will have Nick Novak among my top-15 kickers, most likely.

On the chart below, “Points” refers to points scored by the kickers. Rank shows the NFL team rank (some number between 1 and 32).

FIELD GOAL HEAVY TEAMS -- THE NEXT YEAR
YearTeamFGAOTDDiffPointsRank
2001Atlanta372891157T
2001Baltimore352961157T
2002Pittsburgh4041-11228
2002• San Diego2636-108926
2002• Washington2534-98127
2002• Dallas1921-26132
2003• Tampa Bay2632-68128T
2004Carolina2539-149918T
2004• Chicago241956732
2006Baltimore3032-21215
2006San Francisco352871168T
2006Arizona372981168T
2006Buffalo2528-310220T
2006• Cleveland292278829
2007• Oakland322849726T
2007• Miami2326-38929
2008Tennessee3337-41277T
2008Chicago2936-711915T
2008NY Jets2942-1311320
2009• Washington2529-49227
2009• Cleveland252149128
2009• St. Louis241687331
2010Oakland413741422
2010• Buffalo2130-97932
2011Miami393181318
2011Carolina2847-1911018T
2011• St. Louis2816128132
2012San Francisco4241113110
2012Washington3048-1812213
2012• Kansas City34171710126
2012• St. Louis312749529
2013Kansas City2841-1311817
2014Baltimore3443-912910
2014NY Jets39271211915
2015NY Jets3344-1112312
2016Baltimore393091412
2017HOUSTON?????

Fantasy Index