I think we will see a different mindset with Jacksonville’s offense this year. I think they want to run the ball more, taking a lot off Blake Bortles’ plate in a last-gasp attempt (a futile attempt, perhaps) to get his career off the ground. It’s a switch that started to occur last year.
Greg Olson, recall, began the year as the offensive coordinator. They kicked him to the curb after a midseason blowout loss at Tennessee. (The biggest issue in that game, as I recall, was the Jaguars consistently letting the Titans’ running backs get outside for huge runs – that didn’t have anything to do with Olson, but they wanted to fire somebody.)
Under Olson, the Jaguars were passing the heck out of it. Bortles, recall, threw 35 TDs the previous year. In those first seven games under Olson, they averaged 272 passing yards while ranking near the bottom in rushing – down at 73 yards per game.
Under Nathaniel Hackett, they started running a lot more. In Hackett’s nine games, they were a bottom-10 passing team (225 yards per game), while only five team ran for more yards (125 per game).
So once they switched from Olson to Hackett, the Jaguars were the league’s most improved running team, picking up an additional 52 yards per game, while they had one of the biggest dropoffs in passing.
I expect this will carry over into 2017. I have seen many reports over the past few weeks suggesting the Jaguars will select Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick of the draft. If they don’t pick him, they potentially could choose a good running back in the early second round (Joe Mixon might be there, if they’re comfortable with him). If Jacksonville picks either of those backs in the first two rounds, we can all be pretty certain where this offense is headed in 2017.
Here are the applicable charts. Note that this is not a first half of season versus second half of season comparision. The Jaguars dumped Olson after their seventh game, so I have prepared a chart showing the first seven games for each team versus the final nine games for each team. But you get the idea.
| RUSHING YARDS CHANGE, 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | G 1-7 | G 8-16 | Diff |
| Jacksonville | 72.6 | 124.8 | 52.2 |
| Chicago | 87.1 | 124.4 | 37.3 |
| New Orleans | 88.3 | 125.0 | 36.7 |
| Seattle | 81.4 | 113.4 | 32.0 |
| NY Giants | 70.3 | 102.2 | 31.9 |
| Buffalo | 152.1 | 173.8 | 21.6 |
| NY Jets | 101.4 | 121.3 | 19.9 |
| Atlanta | 114.6 | 125.1 | 10.5 |
| Baltimore | 85.6 | 95.4 | 9.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 104.6 | 113.8 | 9.2 |
| Oakland | 115.0 | 124.1 | 9.1 |
| San Diego | 89.9 | 97.9 | 8.0 |
| Philadelphia | 109.4 | 116.3 | 6.9 |
| Minnesota | 71.9 | 78.0 | 6.1 |
| Kansas City | 106.3 | 111.7 | 5.4 |
| Indianapolis | 98.9 | 104.1 | 5.3 |
| Green Bay | 105.3 | 107.1 | 1.8 |
| Houston | 115.3 | 116.9 | 1.6 |
| Los Angeles | 79.9 | 77.0 | -2.9 |
| San Francisco | 128.6 | 124.3 | -4.2 |
| Cincinnati | 115.7 | 106.6 | -9.2 |
| New England | 122.7 | 112.6 | -10.2 |
| Miami | 120.0 | 109.3 | -10.7 |
| Tennessee | 143.4 | 132.3 | -11.1 |
| Washington | 113.7 | 100.4 | -13.3 |
| Detroit | 89.4 | 76.0 | -13.4 |
| Carolina | 123.9 | 105.2 | -18.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 113.4 | 91.7 | -21.8 |
| Cleveland | 120.6 | 96.4 | -24.1 |
| Dallas | 164.9 | 138.0 | -26.9 |
| Arizona | 124.9 | 94.9 | -30.0 |
| Denver | 111.6 | 78.1 | -33.5 |
| PASSING YARDS CHANGE, 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | G 1-7 | G 8-16 | Diff |
| Green Bay | 248.9 | 300.3 | 51.5 |
| San Francisco | 174.3 | 216.2 | 41.9 |
| Washington | 289.6 | 324.6 | 35.0 |
| Philadelphia | 218.0 | 252.4 | 34.4 |
| Minnesota | 239.7 | 271.2 | 31.5 |
| Buffalo | 186.7 | 215.9 | 29.2 |
| Denver | 229.1 | 256.7 | 27.5 |
| Baltimore | 262.4 | 278.4 | 16.0 |
| New England | 271.7 | 284.0 | 12.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 253.7 | 265.4 | 11.7 |
| Arizona | 270.4 | 281.8 | 11.3 |
| Tennessee | 229.1 | 235.1 | 6.0 |
| Seattle | 274.3 | 278.0 | 3.7 |
| Oakland | 258.3 | 258.3 | .0 |
| Detroit | 273.4 | 268.1 | -5.3 |
| Houston | 219.0 | 209.4 | -9.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 280.9 | 267.9 | -13.0 |
| New Orleans | 337.9 | 321.3 | -16.5 |
| Chicago | 271.3 | 248.9 | -22.4 |
| NY Jets | 241.0 | 217.4 | -23.6 |
| San Diego | 288.9 | 263.1 | -25.7 |
| Miami | 247.1 | 220.9 | -26.3 |
| Cleveland | 245.7 | 219.2 | -26.5 |
| Indianapolis | 296.3 | 268.6 | -27.7 |
| Dallas | 253.3 | 225.1 | -28.2 |
| Kansas City | 265.9 | 228.1 | -37.7 |
| Atlanta | 335.4 | 290.2 | -45.2 |
| Jacksonville | 272.0 | 224.6 | -47.4 |
| NY Giants | 283.4 | 227.0 | -56.4 |
| Cincinnati | 295.0 | 237.9 | -57.1 |
| Carolina | 280.1 | 222.3 | -57.8 |
| Los Angeles | 244.0 | 178.3 | -65.7 |
—Ian Allan