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Detroit Lions

Is this the year Eric Ebron finds the end zone?

Eric Ebron caught a bunch of balls last year, but precious few touchdowns. Specifically, 61 catches and only one score (though he did also run for a touchdown). That was weird, and it makes him harder to grade for 2017.

When a tight end is catching a healthy number of balls, should we treat the one touchdown as an outlier number? It seems like it would be easy for such a player to move up to 5-6 touchdowns with nothing much changing.

In this case, Ebron plays for the Lions. They haven’t re-signed Anquan Boldin (at least not yet). Boldin caught 8 TDs last year, and if he’s not back, somebody else will have to assume a good chunk of that workload. Ebron has the same body type as Boldin. The Lions like Ebron enough that they’re picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract.

But Detroit also drafted a tight end in the fourth round, Michael Roberts, and he’ll play. Roberts was a big red-zone threat at Toledo, with 16 of his 45 catches last year going for touchdowns.

For historical perspective, I have looked at tight ends from the last 25 years. On 13 occasions a tight end caught 50-plus passes in a season without catching more than one touchdown. The following season, only three of those tight ends caught more than 4 TDs. Jordan Reed and Jason Witten were monsters, with a combined 183 catches and 18 touchdowns. Brent Celek caught 32 passes and 6 TDs for the Eagles in 2013.

Ebron has been plagued by drops during his career, but I kind of like him for the 2017 season. I think he’ll wind up on some of my teams.

LOW-SCORING TIGHT ENDS (the next year)
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
1994Steve Jordan, Min.3237.70
1996Jackie Harris, T.B.3034911.61
1997Pete Mitchell, Jac.3538010.94
1997Brian Kinchen, Balt.11958.61
2006Jermaine Wiggins, Min.463868.41
2007• Jason Witten, Dall.96114511.97
2009Zach Miller, Oak.6680512.23
2009Jeremy Shockey, N.O.4856911.93
2009Chris Cooley, Wash.2933211.42
2013• Brent Celek, Phil.3250215.76
2014Heath Miller, Pitt.6676111.53
2015• Jordan Reed, Wash.8795210.911
2016Jacob Tamme, Atl.222109.53
2017Eric Ebron, Det.????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index