Ian Allan

May 09, 2017

Workhorse running backs

Are Bell, Johnson and Elliott injury risks?

There are three big workhorse backs in drafts this year – David Johnson, LeVeon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. They have nice upside, but any time you have a back handling a huge workload, there’s increased potential of an injury. What exactly is the risk with these guys.

I have spent a few minutes playing around with some numbers. In this century, there have been 85 running backs who’ve handled the ball at least 360 times in a season. So let’s take that group (who are all Johnson-Bell-Elliott type guys) and then look at the next season for each of them. For this project, by the way, I’m tossing out players who didn’t play at all the next year, either retiring, getting suspended or being injured in the offseason.

Of the group of 85, 29 finished with under 300 touches. About a third. So you might say about a third of these backs broke down. I’ve got these guys tagged with black dots.

Almost half (38 of 85) finished with 350-plus touches again the next season. They pretty much held serve. I’ve got them in bold.

And the remaining backs are kind of in the middle, finishing with between 300 and 350 touches. Their workload went down, but they still played a significant amoung. There are 18 of those backs.

But let’s also consider age. I’ve got these guys sorted youngest to oldest. If you look down near the bottom, you’ll see a lot more of the older backs failing to answer the bell. There are 16 backs who were at least 29 years old, and only four came back and rocked out another high-workload year. Half of the running backs in the older group finished in the breakdown category (with fewer than 300 touches).

On the other hand, if you go back and look at the backs who are 25 and 26 years old, only 1 of those 21 running backs came back and didn’t have 300 touches. If you were thinking about drafting Johnson or Bell (who are both 25), this might make you feel better about it. (Every player is different, though, and Bell has been hurt in each of his seasons in the pros.)

Elliott turns 22 years old in July.

RUNNING BACKS WITH 360 TOUCHES (THE NEXT YEAR)
Year	Running back	Age	Rec	Run	Total	TD
2002	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	23	489	1,683	2,172	15
2005	Clinton Portis, Wash.	23	216	1,516	1,732	11
2003	Travis Henry, Buff.	23	158	1,356	1,514	11
2009	Matt Forte, Chi.	23	471	929	1,400	4
2001	• Edgerrin James, Ind.	23	193	662	855	3
2015	• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	23	136	556	692	3
2003	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	24	516	1,641	2,157	8
2003	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	24	725	1,645	2,370	17
2003	Jamal Lewis, Balt.	24	205	2,066	2,271	14
2011	Ray Rice, Balt.	24	704	1,364	2,068	15
2010	Chris Johnson, Tenn.	24	245	1,364	1,609	12
2009	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	24	436	1,383	1,819	18
2007	Frank Gore, S.F.	24	436	1,102	1,538	6
2006	• Willis McGahee, Buff.	24	156	990	1,146	6
2007	• Steven Jackson, St.L.	24	271	1,002	1,273	6
2005	• Domanick Davis, Hou.	24	337	976	1,313	6
2006	• Clinton Portis, Wash.	24	170	523	693	7
2013	• Doug Martin, T.B.	24	66	456	522	1
2004	• Travis Henry, Buff.	24	45	326	371	0
2002	Ricky Williams, Mia.	25	363	1,853	2,216	17
2004	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	25	441	1,335	1,776	18
2005	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	25	90	1,458	1,548	12
2002	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	25	460	1,175	1,635	18
2002	Ahman Green, G.B.	25	393	1,240	1,633	9
2010	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	25	317	1,324	1,641	7
2011	Arian Foster, Hou.	25	617	1,224	1,841	12
2010	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	25	341	1,298	1,639	13
2011	Chris Johnson, Tenn.	25	418	1,047	1,465	4
2012	Ray Rice, Balt.	25	478	1,143	1,621	10
2004	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	25	228	1,074	1,302	9
2004	• Jamal Lewis, Balt.	25	116	1,006	1,122	7
2006	Larry Johnson, K.C.	26	410	1,789	2,199	19
2003	Ricky Williams, Mia.	26	351	1,372	1,723	10
2005	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	26	370	1,462	1,832	20
2004	Edgerrin James, Ind.	26	483	1,548	2,031	9
2008	Clinton Portis, Wash.	26	218	1,487	1,705	9
2003	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	26	295	1,435	1,730	16
2006	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	26	124	1,309	1,433	12
2007	Willie Parker, Pitt.	26	164	1,316	1,480	2
2014	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	26	155	1,319	1,474	5
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	27	508	1,815	2,323	31
2005	Edgerrin James, Ind.	27	337	1,506	1,843	14
2001	Stephen Davis, Wash.	27	205	1,432	1,637	5
2004	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	27	170	1,696	1,866	20
2010	Steven Jackson, St.L.	27	383	1,241	1,624	6
2002	Corey Dillon, Cin.	27	298	1,311	1,609	7
2001	Eddie George, Tenn.	27	279	939	1,218	5
2004	• Ahman Green, G.B.	27	275	1,163	1,438	8
2015	• DeMarco Murray, Phil.	27	322	702	1,024	7
2007	• Larry Johnson, K.C.	27	186	559	745	4
2009	• Michael Turner, Atl.	27	35	871	906	10
2007	• Rudi Johnson, Cin.	27	110	497	607	4
2013	• Arian Foster, Hou.	27	183	542	725	2
2009	• Clinton Portis, Wash.	27	57	494	551	2
2012	• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	27	86	414	500	2
2001	Curtis Martin, NYJ	28	320	1,513	1,833	10
2005	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	28	78	1,880	1,958	28
2002	Priest Holmes, K.C.	28	672	1,615	2,287	24
2002	Eddie George, Tenn.	28	255	1,165	1,420	14
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	28	475	1,474	1,949	18
2006	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	28	217	1,159	1,376	6
2014	Matt Forte, Chi.	28	808	1,038	1,846	10
2003	Tiki Barber, NYG	28	461	1,216	1,677	3
2013	Adrian Peterson, Minn.	28	171	1,266	1,437	11
2011	Steven Jackson, St.L.	28	333	1,145	1,478	6
2004	• Fred Taylor, Jac.	28	345	1,224	1,569	3
2008	• Brian Westbrook, Phil.	28	402	936	1,338	14
2002	• Stephen Davis, Wash.	28	142	820	962	8
2003	• Corey Dillon, Cin.	28	71	541	612	2
2003	Priest Holmes, K.C.	29	690	1,420	2,110	27
2007	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	29	204	1,222	1,426	7
2008	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	29	426	1,110	1,536	12
2003	Eddie George, Tenn.	29	163	1,031	1,194	5
2002	Curtis Martin, NYJ	29	362	1,094	1,456	7
2006	• Shaun Alexander, Sea.	29	48	896	944	7
2015	• Matt Forte, Chi.	29	389	898	1,287	7
2001	• Jerome Bettis, Pitt.	29	48	1,072	1,120	4
2001	• James Stewart, Det.	29	242	685	927	2
2005	Tiki Barber, NYG	30	530	1,860	2,390	11
2005	• Corey Dillon, N.E.	30	181	733	914	13
2004	• Priest Holmes, K.C.	30	187	892	1,079	15
2004	Curtis Martin, NYJ	31	245	1,697	1,942	14
2006	Tiki Barber, NYG	31	465	1,662	2,127	5
2016	• Adrian Peterson, Minn.	31	8	72	80	0
2005	• Curtis Martin, NYJ	32	118	735	853	5

—Ian Allan

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Ian Allan

Workhorse running backs

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service