Who’s in for Dak Prescott? Who wants Carson Wentz? These guys have been around for a year, getting some all-valuable experience, so of course they’ll be a lot better in their second year. Or will they?
As I was mulling the quarterback board, considering whether to put Prescott in the bottom of the top 10 or just outside the top 10, I decided to look at some of the historical numbers. And this also applies to Wentz, a quarterback I’m figuring most will either have just inside their top 20 or just outside.
The Cowboys might not have as much success running this year. They may need to ask Prescott to do more.
With the Eagles, Wentz has a better idea what he’s doing now (right?), and they’ve added a little receiving talent – Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith.
But look at the numbers. In this century, 27 quarterbacks have started at least half of their rookie season, then come back and again started at least half of the games in their second year. Then look at their production.
Of the 27 quarterbacks, a third finished with worse numbers.
And where are the big movers? I see four quarterbacks who were below-average starters as rookies who then moved up into the top 15 in Year No. 2.
Eight quarterbacks put up top 20 numbers as rookies (per-game numbers, that is). Of those guys, only one put up better stats in his second season (Byron Leftwich, whose stats were 9 percent better). Of the other seven, the per-game ranks tended to be pretty similar. Winston and Mariota moved up 5 and 2 spots last year, despite their raw numbers actually being a little worse.
I don’t want to dump a bunch of numbers on you, with passing and rushing yards and touchdowns (below and after) and fantasy points per game, there would be too many columns. It gets too complicated. So instead, I’m showing just the rank of where the quarterback finished, using standard fantasy scoring. Cam Newton, for example, was the 4th-best per game quarterback as a rookie. He came back in his second year and was the 4th-best quarterback again in his second year.
In any given year, there are about 32 quarterbacks who started at least half the season, so top-15 is kind of fantasy worthy, and outside the top 20 tends to be guys who can’t hold a job in fantasy leagues.
If a player didn’t improve (his next year rank was the same or worse) I put a black dot next to his name.
Prescott officially ranked 17th last year, but he could be listed as 8th (he made the cameo appearance in the Week 17 game at Philly, when everyone knew he wouldn’t play much – set that game aside and he was No. 8).
Wentz ranked 27th statistically as a rookie, and it would be unusual if he were to step up and be a key player this year. The best second-year climbers who had rookie years kind of like Wentz would be Bortles (flying up from 27th to 2nd, with a bunch of garbage-time stats), Ben Roethlisberger (24th to 15th) and Josh Freeman (23rd to 16th). Thirteen other quarterbacks put up bottom-10 numbers as rookies, and none of them ranked higher than 20th in their second year.
These are just numbers, of course. Every player and situation is different. But for me, I’ve got 19 quarterbacks I would draft ahead of Wentz every time right now. There are a lot of good quarterbacks out there. It’s at spot No. 20 where you can start mulling whether you like Wentz’s maybe-he’s-a-breakout-guy dimension and put him ahead of the likes of Flacco, Tannehill and Bortles.
| 8+ STARTS IN FIRST TWO YEARS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rk | Next | Diff |
| 2011 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 2012 | • Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 5 | 11 | -6 |
| 2006 | • Vince Young, Tenn. | 9 | 22 | -13 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| 2012 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 12 | 14 | -2 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 17 | 12 | 5 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | ? | ? |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 20 | 19 | 1 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 21 | 14 | 7 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 21 | 18 | 3 |
| 2014 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 21 | 30 | -9 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 23 | 16 | 7 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 24 | 15 | 9 |
| 2011 | • Christian Ponder, Minn. | 24 | 26 | -2 |
| 2010 | • Sam Bradford, St.L. | 24 | 32 | -8 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 26 | 21 | 5 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 27 | 2 | 25 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 27 | 23 | 4 |
| 2013 | • Geno Smith, NYJ | 27 | 30 | -3 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 27 | ? | ? |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 28 | 20 | 8 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 28 | 20 | 8 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 28 | 23 | 5 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 28 | 26 | 2 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 29 | 24 | 5 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 29 | 27 | 2 |
| 2003 | • Kyle Boller, Balt. | 31 | 31 | 0 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 33 | 31 | 2 |
As a group, these 27 quarterbacks averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game in their rookie seasons. They moved up to 18.0 in their second year, an increase of 5 percent.
—Ian Allan