Yesterday I ran an item on the top rookie seasons in terms of sacks over the last 20 years, trying to guess what the likelihood of coveted defensive prospects like Miles Garrett and Solomon Thomas might do this season. But it was pointed out to me, better to compare them to previous defensive ends selected near the top of the NFL Draft.
So I pulled out the rookie sack numbers for all defensive ends selected in the top 10 picks over the past 20 years. There were 28 such players. Approximately half of them had credible pass rush seasons; at least 5 sacks. Five (including Joey Bosa last year) reached double digits.
Seems like an even chance that Garrett and Thomas sneak up into the 5-sack range; one of them anyway. Less likely that either posts difference-making numbers right off the bat.
SACKS, DES IN TOP-10, 1997-PRESENT | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Sacks |
2002 | 2 | Julius Peppers, Car. | 12.0 |
2003 | 10 | Terrell Suggs, Balt. | 12.0 |
1997 | 4 | Peter Boulware, Balt. | 11.5 |
2016 | 3 | Joey Bosa, S.D. | 10.5 |
2003 | 9 | Kevin Williams, Minn. | 10.5 |
2001 | 4 | Justin Smith, Cin. | 8.5 |
2013 | 5 | Ezekiel Ansah, Det. | 8.0 |
2001 | 7 | Andre Carter, S.F. | 6.5 |
2007 | 4 | Gaines Adams, T.B. | 6.0 |
2016 | 7 | DeForest Buckner, S.F. | 6.0 |
1998 | 3 | Andre Wadsworth, Ariz. | 5.0 |
2013 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo, Clev. | 5.0 |
2006 | 1 | Mario Williams, Hou. | 4.5 |
2000 | 1 | Courtney Brown, Clev. | 4.5 |
2008 | 2 | Chris Long, St.L. | 4.0 |
2014 | 5 | Khalil Mack, Oak. | 4.0 |
2008 | 8 | Derrick Harvey, Jac. | 3.5 |
2010 | 10 | Tyson Alualu, Jac. | 3.5 |
2015 | 6 | Leonard Williams, NYJ | 3.0 |
1998 | 6 | Grant Wistrom, St.L. | 3.0 |
1998 | 8 | Greg Ellis, Dall. | 3.0 |
2013 | 3 | Dion Jordan, Mia. | 2.0 |
2001 | 10 | Jamal Reynolds, G.B. | 2.0 |
2014 | 1 | Jadeveon Clowney, Hou. | 0.0 |
2009 | 3 | Tyson Jackson, K.C. | 0.0 |
2008 | 6 | Vernon Gholston, NYJ | 0.0 |
2007 | 8 | Jamaal Anderson, Atl. | 0.0 |
2015 | 3 | Dante Fowler Jr., Jac. | 0.0 |
2017 | 1 | Myles Garrett, Clev. | ?? |
2017 | 3 | Solomon Thomas, S.F. | ?? |
--Andy Richardson