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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The case against Mike Evans

We have kicked around Mike Evans some the past few days. I have let the cat out of the bag that I’m not super high on him for this year. As much as I would like to elevate him above Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones (receivers I also am leery of), I just don’t see it.

While Tampa Bay’s offense appears to be growing nicely, I fear it’s also becoming more diverse. We saw this with the chart I posted a couple of days ago, with Evans being the No. 1 receiver in the first half of last year (first eight games), but just 13th in the second half of the season.

Lots of new weapons in Tampa Bay. It’s a better, more well-rounded receiving group now, and I think the days of forcing everything to Evans are over.

I can also point out that he drops more balls than he should – concentration drops. He dropped 11 balls in 2015, and 7 last year. Not a deal killer, but of the 43 wide receiver who’ve seen at least 100 catchable balls over the last two years, he’s one of only three who’s dropped over 9 percent of them.

Not that Evans is a poison pick kind of guy. I’ve still got him as the 6th-best receiver on my board. But not a player I will be selecting. There are other receivers who’ll put up similar numbers that I think will come at far more favorable prices. Michael Thomas and T.Y. Hilton, for example.

WIDE RECEIVER DROPS (2015-16)
PlayerRecDropPct
Pierre Garcon, Wash.15121.3%
Antonio Brown, Pitt.24241.6%
Doug Baldwin, Sea.17231.7%
Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.21641.8%
Emmanuel Sanders, Den.15531.9%
Stefon Diggs, Minn.13632.2%
Jeremy Maclin, K.C.13132.2%
Jamison Crowder, Wash.12632.3%
Willie Snead, N.O.14142.8%
Brandin Cooks, N.O.16253.0%
Jarvis Landry, Mia.20473.3%
Steve Smith Sr., Balt.11643.3%
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.18973.6%
Kamar Aiken, Balt.10443.7%
Golden Tate, Det.18173.7%
Cole Beasley, Dall.12753.8%
A.J. Green, Cin.15263.8%
Robert Woods, Buff.9843.9%
Julio Jones, Atl.21993.9%
Terrance Williams, Dall.9644.0%
Randall Cobb, G.B.13964.1%
T.Y. Hilton, Ind.16074.2%
Anquan Boldin, S.F.-Det.13664.2%
Alshon Jeffery, Chi.10654.5%
Allen Robinson, Jac.15385.0%
Mike Wallace, Min.-Bal.11165.1%
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG197115.3%
Kenny Britt, Rams10465.5%
John Brown, Ariz.10465.5%
Travis Benjamin, Cle.-S.D.11575.7%
Rishard Matthews, Mia.-Ten.10876.1%
Brandon LaFell, N.E.-Cin.10176.5%
Jordan Matthews, Phil.158116.5%
Allen Hurns, Jac.9987.5%
Julian Edelman, N.E.159137.6%
Demaryius Thomas, Den.195167.6%
Amari Cooper, Oak.155137.7%
Davante Adams, G.B.125118.1%
Tavon Austin, Rams110108.3%
Michael Crabtree, Oak.174178.9%
Mike Evans, T.B.170189.6%
Brandon Marshall, NYJ168189.7%
Ted Ginn Jr., Car.981513.3%

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index