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Factoid

First-round quarterbacks

Developing on the bench seldom happens anymore

The Bears say Mike Glennon is their starting quarterback, and Andy Reid says the same about Alex Smith. Less plausibly, Houston says Tom Savage will start ahead of rookie Deshaun Watson (left). Recent history suggests that all three of the first-round quarterbacks play plenty in their rookie season -- and it's a bad sign for their NFL futures if they don't.

Over the last 10 years, there been 29 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Two-thirds (19) of them have ended up throwing at least 300 passes in their first season, and three more were over 200. Only two of the seven exceptions are still in the league. Jay Cutler (oh wait, he's retired), Paxton Lynch and five busts.

Not to say that attempting 200 or 300 passes means they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But all but one of the successes have played plenty as rookies. Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.

Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes aren't locks to play a lot as rookies; certainly Chicago and Kansas City have clear starters ahead of them, either because they're being guaranteed a small fortune this year, or because they've earned it. But it seems like these rookies' futures will look better if they get some starts in during the season.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2007-2016)
YearPkPlayerCompAttYardsTD
20121Andrew Luck, Ind.339627437423
20162Carson Wentz, Phil.379607378216
20101Sam Bradford, St.L.354590351218
20151Jameis Winston, T.B.312535404222
201222Brandon Weeden, Clev.297517338514
20111Cam Newton, Car.310517405121
20128Ryan Tannehill, Mia.282484329412
20143Blake Bortles, Jac.280475290811
20083Matt Ryan, Atl.265434344016
200818Joe Flacco, Balt.257428297114
201110Blaine Gabbert, Jac.210413221412
201432Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.259402291914
20122Robert Griffin III, Wash.258393320020
20091Matthew Stafford, Det.201377226713
200610Matt Leinart, Ariz.214377254711
20152Marcus Mariota, Tenn.230370281819
20095Mark Sanchez, NYJ196364244412
20063Vince Young, Tenn.184357219912
201316EJ Manuel, Buff.180306197211
201112Christian Ponder, Minn.158291185313
200917Josh Freeman, T.B.158290185510
20161Jared Goff, L.A.11220510895
200611Jay Cutler, Den.8113710019
201626Paxton Lynch, Den.49834972
201025Tim Tebow, Den.41826545
20118Jake Locker, Tenn.34665424
20071JaMarcus Russell, Oak.36663732
201422Johnny Manziel, Clev.18351750
200722Brady Quinn, Clev.38450

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index