The Bears say Mike Glennon is their starting quarterback, and Andy Reid says the same about Alex Smith. Less plausibly, Houston says Tom Savage will start ahead of rookie Deshaun Watson (left). Recent history suggests that all three of the first-round quarterbacks play plenty in their rookie season -- and it's a bad sign for their NFL futures if they don't.
Over the last 10 years, there been 29 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Two-thirds (19) of them have ended up throwing at least 300 passes in their first season, and three more were over 200. Only two of the seven exceptions are still in the league. Jay Cutler (oh wait, he's retired), Paxton Lynch and five busts.
Not to say that attempting 200 or 300 passes means they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But all but one of the successes have played plenty as rookies. Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.
Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes aren't locks to play a lot as rookies; certainly Chicago and Kansas City have clear starters ahead of them, either because they're being guaranteed a small fortune this year, or because they've earned it. But it seems like these rookies' futures will look better if they get some starts in during the season.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2007-2016) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 |
2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 |
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 |
2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 |
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 |
2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 214 | 377 | 2547 | 11 |
2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 |
2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 184 | 357 | 2199 | 12 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 |
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 |
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 |
2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 81 | 137 | 1001 | 9 |
2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 |
2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 36 | 66 | 373 | 2 |
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 |
2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson