We’ve got older backs with new teams. Adrian Peterson in New Orleans, Marshawn Lynch in Oakland, and Jamaal Charles in Denver. Is it worthwhile gambling on any of these players?
I don’t think any of them will be full-time runners. Jamaal Charles, 31 in December, has hardly played the last two years because of knee issues. I’m not sure he’ll even be on a roster on opening day. I don’t think there’s much of a chance of him being one of the top two rushers on that team.
With Peterson, he’s 32 and at a team with other running backs. Mark Ingram is better than him, I think, and their draft pick, Alvin Kamara, could be their third-down type back. He catches better than the veterans. That’s a three-back committee, I believe.
Lynch is 31 and didn’t play last year. I expect them to use him the same way they used Latavius Murray last year, with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard getting plenty of change-of-pace carries. Those guys combined for almost a 1,000 rushing yards last year, both averaging over 5 yards per carry.
I see Peterson and Lynch as later-round guys. I expect that they will be gone in drafts long before I would be thinking about them.
I did, however, pull some historical numbers. In this century (the 17 seasons from 2000 to 2016) there have been some successful seasons by older backs.
Of the last 170 running backs who put up top-10 numbers (standard scoring), seven of those backs were at least 31 years old (when the season started) – 4 percent of top-10 running backs at 31-plus years old.
Of the 170 running backs who ranked in the top 20 (but not the top 10), 10 were at least 31 years old.
And of the 170 running backs ranking 21st to 30th in those seasons, 17 of them were 31 – 10 percent in that last group.
| BEST RUNNING BACKS OLDER THAN 30 (since 2000) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (age) | Rec | Run | Total | TD | Points | Rnk |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ (31) | 245 | 1,697 | 1,942 | 14 | 278.2 | 4 |
| 2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG (31) | 465 | 1,662 | 2,127 | 5 | 242.7 | 7 |
| 2000 | Ricky Watters, Sea. (31) | 613 | 1,242 | 1,855 | 9 | 239.5 | 9 |
| 2009 | Thomas Jones, Chi. (31) | 58 | 1,402 | 1,460 | 14 | 230.0 | 6 |
| 2009 | Ricky Williams, Mia. (32) | 264 | 1,121 | 1,385 | 13 | 218.5 | 7 |
| 2005 | Mike Anderson, Den. (31) | 212 | 1,014 | 1,226 | 13 | 200.6 | 10 |
| 2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. (32) | 367 | 907 | 1,274 | 11 | 195.4 | 4 |
| 2013 | Fred Jackson, Buff. (32) | 387 | 890 | 1,277 | 10 | 187.7 | 11 |
| 2002 | Garrison Hearst, S.F. (31) | 317 | 972 | 1,289 | 9 | 184.9 | 19 |
| 2000 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. (31) | 79 | 1,203 | 1,282 | 9 | 182.2 | 20 |
| 2004 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. (32) | 46 | 941 | 987 | 13 | 180.7 | 18 |
| 2016 | Frank Gore, Ind. (33) | 277 | 1,025 | 1,302 | 8 | 178.2 | 12 |
| 2006 | Corey Dillon, N.E. (31) | 147 | 812 | 959 | 13 | 173.9 | 19 |
| 2015 | Frank Gore, Ind. (32) | 267 | 967 | 1,234 | 7 | 165.4 | 11 |
| 2010 | LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ (31) | 368 | 914 | 1,282 | 6 | 164.2 | 17 |
| 2004 | Emmitt Smith, Ariz. (35) | 105 | 937 | 1,042 | 9 | 162.2 | 23 |
| 2006 | Warrick Dunn, Atl. (31) | 170 | 1,140 | 1,310 | 5 | 161.0 | 24 |
| 2007 | Fred Taylor, Jac. (31) | 58 | 1,202 | 1,260 | 5 | 156.0 | 18 |
| 2014 | Frank Gore, S.F. (31) | 111 | 1,106 | 1,217 | 5 | 151.7 | 17 |
| 2010 | Thomas Jones, K.C. (32) | 122 | 896 | 1,018 | 6 | 137.8 | 25 |
| 2002 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. (33) | 89 | 975 | 1,064 | 5 | 136.4 | 26 |
| 2004 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. (31) | 310 | 774 | 1,084 | 4 | 136.4 | 28 |
| 2008 | Kevin Faulk, N.E. (32) | 486 | 507 | 993 | 6 | 135.3 | 29 |
| 2003 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. (31) | 86 | 811 | 897 | 7 | 133.7 | 26 |
| 2002 | Lamar Smith, Car. (31) | 167 | 737 | 904 | 7 | 132.4 | 30 |
| 2001 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. (32) | 116 | 1,021 | 1,137 | 3 | 131.7 | 25 |
| 2005 | Stephen Davis, Car. (31) | 45 | 549 | 594 | 12 | 131.4 | 26 |
| 2008 | Sammy Morris, N.E. (31) | 161 | 727 | 888 | 7 | 130.8 | 30 |
| 2014 | Fred Jackson, Buff. (33) | 501 | 525 | 1,026 | 3 | 122.6 | 23 |
| 2003 | Garrison Hearst, S.F. (32) | 211 | 768 | 979 | 4 | 121.9 | 29 |
| 2014 | Steven Jackson, Atl. (31) | 148 | 707 | 855 | 6 | 121.5 | 24 |
| 2007 | Warrick Dunn, Atl. (32) | 238 | 720 | 958 | 4 | 119.8 | 30 |
| 2014 | Darren Sproles, Phil. (31) | 387 | 329 | 716 | 8 | 119.6 | 27 |
| 2005 | Curtis Martin, NYJ (32) | 118 | 735 | 853 | 5 | 115.3 | 29 |
| 2016 | Darren Sproles, Phil. (33) | 427 | 438 | 865 | 4 | 110.5 | 30 |
—Ian Allan