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Fanex Analysis Draft

Wild quarterback run finally comes in experts draft

For rounds and rounds in this ongoing Fanex Analysis Draft, nobody wanted to take quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers lasted until late in the third. Tom Brady went in the fifth. Drew Brees lasted until the next-to-last pick in the sixth. Then everything flipped.

Mike Nease of Big Guy Fantasy Sports threw the first curve ball when he selected Brees 71st overall. That’s a great value for Brees, but Nease had already taken Brady in the previous round. Then Nease confirmed that he’s absolutely nuts by also selecting Matt Ryan three picks later.

I’ve been in hundreds of drafts over the years. I’ve never been in one where one owner has selected the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarterbacks of the draft. And this is a league with devalued quarterbacks. You start two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end and a flex (PPR scoring). And with it being a no-moves and best-ball league, you really need good backups at those spots.

It was in the second half of the seventh round that the quarterback feeding frenzy really kicked off. Andrew Luck went at pick 7.08 (another great value), then two more quarterbacks went off the board (Derek Carr and Jameis Winston). Dish Adams, who selected Winston, tossed another curveball into the mix by selecting his second quarterback with the 2nd pick of the eighth round.

The Adams pick at the time seemed odd, but it looks prescient now. Of the final 11 picks in the eighth round, eight were quarterbacks. Then four more quarterbacks went in the first seven picks of the ninth round.

Many in this draft (apparently) were coming in with the same idea as myself. I didn’t want to use an early pick on a franchise-type quarterback. Hence the uncomfortable decisions to pass on Brady and Brees multiple times. But I was very interested in getting two capable arms. I wanted two of the top 19 quarterbacks (didn’t care too much who they were).

I thought I would be able to select quarterbacks in the eighth and 10th rounds, but I had to turn up the tempo. I went with Philip Rivers at 8.06 and Eli Manning at 9.07.

Quarterbacks are almost tapped out now, and Matt Schauf has to be squirming. He’s sitting at the end of the round and is the only owner without a quarterback. He’ll likely be selecting two of the following four with his next two picks: Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco. Of that group, Palmer is the only one that interests me much, and he might be gone before Schauf picks. Mike Nazarek picks before Schauf, needs a second quarterback, and I think Palmer will be his pick (in the Experts Poll in the magazine, Palmer was the 16th quarterback on Nazarek’s board, with Bortles 20th).

FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT
PkPosPlayerOwner
1.01RBDavid JohnsonDolfi/Walls
1.02WRAntonio BrownNease
1.03RBLeVeon BellPianowski
1.04RBEzekiel ElliottSatterlee
1.05WROdell Beckham Jr.Holm
1.06WRJulio JonesAllan
1.07RBLeSean McCoyPanizo
1.08WRMike EvansHarmon
1.09WRA.J. GreenCahill
1.10WRJordy NelsonNazarek
1.11RBMelvin GordonAdams
1.12WRDez BryantSchauf
2.01RBDeMarco MurraySchauf
2.02RBDalvin CookAdams
2.03RBDevonta FreemanNazarek
2.04RBJordan HowardCahill
2.05RBJay AjayiHarmon
2.06WRMichael ThomasPanizo
2.07WRT.Y. HiltonAllan
2.08RBLeonard FournetteHolm
2.09WRBrandin CooksSatterlee
2.10WRAmari CooperPianowski
2.11RBChristian McCaffreyNease
2.12WRDoug BaldwinDolfi/Walls
3.01WRDeAndre HopkinsDolfi/Walls
3.02RBJoe MixonNease
3.03RBTodd GurleyPianowski
3.04WRTyreek HillSatterlee
3.05WRAllen RobinsonHolm
3.06TERob GronkowskiSchauf
3.07RBLamar MillerPanizo
3.08WRSammy WatkinsHarmon
3.09RBCarlos HydeCahill
3.10QB• Aaron RodgersNazarek
3.11RBTy MontgomeryAdams
3.12RBIsaiah CrowellAllan
4.01WRLarry FitzgeraldAllan
4.02RBSpencer WareAdams
4.03RBMarshawn LynchNazarek
4.04WRKeenan AllenCahill
4.05WRJarvis LandryHarmon
4.06WRDemaryius ThomasPanizo
4.07WRGolden TateSchauf
4.08WRDavante AdamsHolm
4.09TETravis KelceSatterlee
4.10WRTerrelle PryorPianowski
4.11WRAlshon JefferyNease
4.12WRMichael CrabtreeDolfi/Walls
5.01TEJordan ReedDolfi/Walls
5.02QB• Tom BradyNease
5.03WRWillie SneadPianowski
5.04RBTevin ColemanSatterlee
5.05WRJulian EdelmanHolm
5.06WREmmanuel SandersAllan
5.07RBAmeer AbdullahPanizo
5.08RBBilal PowellHarmon
5.09WRCorey DavisCahill
5.10WRStefon DiggsNazarek
5.11WRBrandon MarshallAdams
5.12RBMark IngramSchauf
6.01WRMartavis BryantSchauf
6.02WREric DeckerAdams
6.03TEGreg OlsenNazarek
6.04RBC.J. AndersonCahill
6.05WRDonte MoncriefHarmon
6.06WRJamison CrowderPanizo
6.07RBPaul PerkinsAllan
6.08RBEddie LacyHolm
6.09WRDeVante ParkerSatterlee
6.10RBMike GillisleePianowski
6.11QB• Drew BreesNease
6.12RBTheo RiddickDolfi/Walls
7.01RBLeGarrette BlountDolfi/Walls
7.02QB• Matt RyanNease
7.03WRPierre GarconPianowski
7.04RBDerrick HenrySatterlee
7.05WRKelvin BenjaminHolm
7.06WRRishard MatthewsAllan
7.07RBFrank GorePanizo
7.08QB• Andrew LuckHarmon
7.09QB• Derek CarrCahill
7.10WRDeSean JacksonNazarek
7.11QB• Jameis WinstonAdams
7.12RBDoug MartinSchauf
8.01RBAdrian PetersonSchauf
8.02QB• Kirk CousinsAdams
8.03WRRandall CobbNazarek
8.04QB• Russell WilsonCahill
8.05QB• Ben RoethlisbergerHarmon
8.06QB• Matthew StaffordPanizo
8.07QBPhilip RiversAllan
8.08QB• Cam NewtonHolm
8.09QB• Dak PrescottSatterlee
8.10WRCameron MeredithPianowski
8.11TEDelanie WalkerNease
8.12QB• Marcus MariotaDolfi/Walls
9.01QB• Carson WentzDolfi/Walls
9.02TEZach ErtzNease
9.03QB• Andy DaltonPianowski
9.04TEJimmy GrahamSatterlee
9.05TEKyle RudolphHolm
9.06QBEli ManningAllan
9.07QB• Tyrod TaylorPanizo
9.08TEMartellus BennettHarmon
9.09TETyler EifertCahill

Also in this draft, the Titans just signed Eric Decker. That decreases the value of my 5th WR (Rishard Matthews), who was my pick at 7.06. I still believe Matthews will be the best pass catcher on that team, but I’m not as confident about it.

I will be interested to see the value of Decker’s contract. I don’t expect it will be a big deal. The Jets didn’t think he was worth $7 million (they cut him). I will guess it’s worth something along the lines of $3-4 million. Matthews signed a contract averaging $5 million in value last year, and he outperformed that contract.

Decker has had some good seasons, with double-digit touchdowns for both the Broncos and Jets. But he’s 30 now and coming off surgeries on his shoulder and hip. He may have signed with Tennessee primarily because he’s married to country singer Jessie James.

If you want to track this draft, seeing the comments posted after each pick, the league can be tracked at MyFantasyLeague.com.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index