For rounds and rounds in this ongoing Fanex Analysis Draft, nobody wanted to take quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers lasted until late in the third. Tom Brady went in the fifth. Drew Brees lasted until the next-to-last pick in the sixth. Then everything flipped.
Mike Nease of Big Guy Fantasy Sports threw the first curve ball when he selected Brees 71st overall. That’s a great value for Brees, but Nease had already taken Brady in the previous round. Then Nease confirmed that he’s absolutely nuts by also selecting Matt Ryan three picks later.
I’ve been in hundreds of drafts over the years. I’ve never been in one where one owner has selected the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarterbacks of the draft. And this is a league with devalued quarterbacks. You start two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end and a flex (PPR scoring). And with it being a no-moves and best-ball league, you really need good backups at those spots.
It was in the second half of the seventh round that the quarterback feeding frenzy really kicked off. Andrew Luck went at pick 7.08 (another great value), then two more quarterbacks went off the board (Derek Carr and Jameis Winston). Dish Adams, who selected Winston, tossed another curveball into the mix by selecting his second quarterback with the 2nd pick of the eighth round.
The Adams pick at the time seemed odd, but it looks prescient now. Of the final 11 picks in the eighth round, eight were quarterbacks. Then four more quarterbacks went in the first seven picks of the ninth round.
Many in this draft (apparently) were coming in with the same idea as myself. I didn’t want to use an early pick on a franchise-type quarterback. Hence the uncomfortable decisions to pass on Brady and Brees multiple times. But I was very interested in getting two capable arms. I wanted two of the top 19 quarterbacks (didn’t care too much who they were).
I thought I would be able to select quarterbacks in the eighth and 10th rounds, but I had to turn up the tempo. I went with Philip Rivers at 8.06 and Eli Manning at 9.07.
Quarterbacks are almost tapped out now, and Matt Schauf has to be squirming. He’s sitting at the end of the round and is the only owner without a quarterback. He’ll likely be selecting two of the following four with his next two picks: Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco. Of that group, Palmer is the only one that interests me much, and he might be gone before Schauf picks. Mike Nazarek picks before Schauf, needs a second quarterback, and I think Palmer will be his pick (in the Experts Poll in the magazine, Palmer was the 16th quarterback on Nazarek’s board, with Bortles 20th).
FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | |||
---|---|---|---|
Pk | Pos | Player | Owner |
1.01 | RB | David Johnson | Dolfi/Walls |
1.02 | WR | Antonio Brown | Nease |
1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell | Pianowski |
1.04 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | Satterlee |
1.05 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | Holm |
1.06 | WR | Julio Jones | Allan |
1.07 | RB | LeSean McCoy | Panizo |
1.08 | WR | Mike Evans | Harmon |
1.09 | WR | A.J. Green | Cahill |
1.10 | WR | Jordy Nelson | Nazarek |
1.11 | RB | Melvin Gordon | Adams |
1.12 | WR | Dez Bryant | Schauf |
2.01 | RB | DeMarco Murray | Schauf |
2.02 | RB | Dalvin Cook | Adams |
2.03 | RB | Devonta Freeman | Nazarek |
2.04 | RB | Jordan Howard | Cahill |
2.05 | RB | Jay Ajayi | Harmon |
2.06 | WR | Michael Thomas | Panizo |
2.07 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | Allan |
2.08 | RB | Leonard Fournette | Holm |
2.09 | WR | Brandin Cooks | Satterlee |
2.10 | WR | Amari Cooper | Pianowski |
2.11 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | Nease |
2.12 | WR | Doug Baldwin | Dolfi/Walls |
3.01 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | Dolfi/Walls |
3.02 | RB | Joe Mixon | Nease |
3.03 | RB | Todd Gurley | Pianowski |
3.04 | WR | Tyreek Hill | Satterlee |
3.05 | WR | Allen Robinson | Holm |
3.06 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Schauf |
3.07 | RB | Lamar Miller | Panizo |
3.08 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Harmon |
3.09 | RB | Carlos Hyde | Cahill |
3.10 | QB | • Aaron Rodgers | Nazarek |
3.11 | RB | Ty Montgomery | Adams |
3.12 | RB | Isaiah Crowell | Allan |
4.01 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | Allan |
4.02 | RB | Spencer Ware | Adams |
4.03 | RB | Marshawn Lynch | Nazarek |
4.04 | WR | Keenan Allen | Cahill |
4.05 | WR | Jarvis Landry | Harmon |
4.06 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | Panizo |
4.07 | WR | Golden Tate | Schauf |
4.08 | WR | Davante Adams | Holm |
4.09 | TE | Travis Kelce | Satterlee |
4.10 | WR | Terrelle Pryor | Pianowski |
4.11 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | Nease |
4.12 | WR | Michael Crabtree | Dolfi/Walls |
5.01 | TE | Jordan Reed | Dolfi/Walls |
5.02 | QB | • Tom Brady | Nease |
5.03 | WR | Willie Snead | Pianowski |
5.04 | RB | Tevin Coleman | Satterlee |
5.05 | WR | Julian Edelman | Holm |
5.06 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | Allan |
5.07 | RB | Ameer Abdullah | Panizo |
5.08 | RB | Bilal Powell | Harmon |
5.09 | WR | Corey Davis | Cahill |
5.10 | WR | Stefon Diggs | Nazarek |
5.11 | WR | Brandon Marshall | Adams |
5.12 | RB | Mark Ingram | Schauf |
6.01 | WR | Martavis Bryant | Schauf |
6.02 | WR | Eric Decker | Adams |
6.03 | TE | Greg Olsen | Nazarek |
6.04 | RB | C.J. Anderson | Cahill |
6.05 | WR | Donte Moncrief | Harmon |
6.06 | WR | Jamison Crowder | Panizo |
6.07 | RB | Paul Perkins | Allan |
6.08 | RB | Eddie Lacy | Holm |
6.09 | WR | DeVante Parker | Satterlee |
6.10 | RB | Mike Gillislee | Pianowski |
6.11 | QB | • Drew Brees | Nease |
6.12 | RB | Theo Riddick | Dolfi/Walls |
7.01 | RB | LeGarrette Blount | Dolfi/Walls |
7.02 | QB | • Matt Ryan | Nease |
7.03 | WR | Pierre Garcon | Pianowski |
7.04 | RB | Derrick Henry | Satterlee |
7.05 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Holm |
7.06 | WR | Rishard Matthews | Allan |
7.07 | RB | Frank Gore | Panizo |
7.08 | QB | • Andrew Luck | Harmon |
7.09 | QB | • Derek Carr | Cahill |
7.10 | WR | DeSean Jackson | Nazarek |
7.11 | QB | • Jameis Winston | Adams |
7.12 | RB | Doug Martin | Schauf |
8.01 | RB | Adrian Peterson | Schauf |
8.02 | QB | • Kirk Cousins | Adams |
8.03 | WR | Randall Cobb | Nazarek |
8.04 | QB | • Russell Wilson | Cahill |
8.05 | QB | • Ben Roethlisberger | Harmon |
8.06 | QB | • Matthew Stafford | Panizo |
8.07 | QB | • Philip Rivers | Allan |
8.08 | QB | • Cam Newton | Holm |
8.09 | QB | • Dak Prescott | Satterlee |
8.10 | WR | Cameron Meredith | Pianowski |
8.11 | TE | Delanie Walker | Nease |
8.12 | QB | • Marcus Mariota | Dolfi/Walls |
9.01 | QB | • Carson Wentz | Dolfi/Walls |
9.02 | TE | Zach Ertz | Nease |
9.03 | QB | • Andy Dalton | Pianowski |
9.04 | TE | Jimmy Graham | Satterlee |
9.05 | TE | Kyle Rudolph | Holm |
9.06 | QB | • Eli Manning | Allan |
9.07 | QB | • Tyrod Taylor | Panizo |
9.08 | TE | Martellus Bennett | Harmon |
9.09 | TE | Tyler Eifert | Cahill |
Also in this draft, the Titans just signed Eric Decker. That decreases the value of my 5th WR (Rishard Matthews), who was my pick at 7.06. I still believe Matthews will be the best pass catcher on that team, but I’m not as confident about it.
I will be interested to see the value of Decker’s contract. I don’t expect it will be a big deal. The Jets didn’t think he was worth $7 million (they cut him). I will guess it’s worth something along the lines of $3-4 million. Matthews signed a contract averaging $5 million in value last year, and he outperformed that contract.
Decker has had some good seasons, with double-digit touchdowns for both the Broncos and Jets. But he’s 30 now and coming off surgeries on his shoulder and hip. He may have signed with Tennessee primarily because he’s married to country singer Jessie James.
If you want to track this draft, seeing the comments posted after each pick, the league can be tracked at MyFantasyLeague.com.
—Ian Allan