Three rounds are complete in the Fanex Analysis Draft, and I’ve finally picked a player I expected to choose – albeit with the final choice in the third round.
I like Isaiah Crowell, and having taken wide receivers in the first and second rounds, I figured I’d better select a running back. I did, however, consider other options.
At pick 3.06, I figured it was time to take a running back. Ty Montgomery and Isaiah Crowell were the two I was looking at. But it seemed a little early for them. They ADP data indicates they’ll go a lot later, and they were chosen in the fourth and fifth rounds in the Experts Draft in the magazine.
So I offered trades to all of the teams in the second half of the third round. The owner at the end of the round, Matt Schauf from Draft Sharks, accepted the deal; he had his eye on Rob Gronkowski. The trade: I give up 3.06 and 4.07 for 3.12 and 4.01, and for the trouble of trading down, I also received his 12.01 for my 13.06. How things are looking at that point in the draft, I have no idea. Hopefully there will be a player sitting there that I really want who will have no chance of lasting another round.
Montgomery went at pick 3.11, making the decision to add Crowell easy. I like the way he runs, I like Hue Jackson’s offensive philosophy, and I like that the Browns bolstered their offensive line.
With the first pick of the fourth round, I was torn between Tom Brady and Larry Fitzgerald. I can’t believe Brady is still there, and I think he’s going to have a big year. I gave him serious consideration (especially with ADP data indicating Fitzgerald might make it to pick 5.06).
But you have to remember the league format. Teams start three wide receivers plus a flex. With it also being PPR scoring, that means essentially that teams start four wide receivers. With there being injuries and byes, you really need five good wide receivers.
My stat projections indicate it was pretty much interchangeable going with Fitzgerald or Brady. With Fitzgerald, assume I will select a quarterback in the eighth round – somebody like Marcus Mariota or Eli Manning. Going that route, I can expect 578 fantasy points from those two positions over the season. Had I gone with Brady, I probably would have needed to select a wide receiver like Corey Coleman or Josh Doctson in the eighth round. That combo grades out at 577 points – almost the exact same total.
I went with Fitzgerald because of that need to get up to five good wide receivers. Plus, as I look down the board at the guys coming up, I’m more confident I’ll be able to find quarterbacks that I can count on.
Strategically, the best move would have been to trade down 5-10 spots, maybe picking up another round of value in the later rounds. Or at least improve my draft position in the fifth round. But I was on the clock and didn’t want to hold up the draft waiting to hear back from a half dozen owners on trade offers.
This has been a weird draft in that some players I figured I would select have gone much earlier than I expected. I was sure I would select Tyreek Hill, but he was chosen early in the third round. Joe Mixon might have been one of my guys, but he went at 3.02 (a lot earlier than I expected). And Ty Montgomery.
Strangest picks thus far, I think have been Dalvin Cook at 2.02 (chosen before Devonta Freeman) and Mixon at 3.02 (chosen before Todd Gurley).
If you want to follow along with this crawling draft, it’s being hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com, with owner analysis of each pick.
| FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick | Pos | Player | Owner |
| 1.01 | RB | David Johnson | Dolfi/Walls |
| 1.02 | WR | Antonio Brown | Nease |
| 1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell | Pianowski |
| 1.04 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | Satterlee |
| 1.05 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | Holm |
| 1.06 | WR | Julio Jones | Allan |
| 1.07 | RB | LeSean McCoy | Panizo |
| 1.08 | WR | Mike Evans | Harmon |
| 1.09 | WR | A.J. Green | Cahill |
| 1.10 | WR | Jordy Nelson | Nazarek |
| 1.11 | RB | Melvin Gordon | Adams |
| 1.12 | WR | Dez Bryant | Schauf |
| 2.01 | RB | DeMarco Murray | Schauf |
| 2.02 | RB | Dalvin Cook | Adams |
| 2.03 | RB | Devonta Freeman | Nazarek |
| 2.04 | RB | Jordan Howard | Cahill |
| 2.05 | RB | Jay Ajayi | Harmon |
| 2.06 | WR | Michael Thomas | Panizo |
| 2.07 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | Allan |
| 2.08 | RB | Leonard Fournette | Holm |
| 2.09 | WR | Brandin Cooks | Satterlee |
| 2.10 | WR | Amari Cooper | Pianowski |
| 2.11 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | Nease |
| 2.12 | WR | Doug Baldwin | Dolfi/Walls |
| 3.01 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | Dolfi/Walls |
| 3.02 | RB | Joe Mixon | Nease |
| 3.03 | RB | Todd Gurley | Pianowski |
| 3.04 | WR | Tyreek Hill | Satterlee |
| 3.05 | WR | Allen Robinson | Holm |
| 3.06 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Schauf |
| 3.07 | RB | Lamar Miller | Panizo |
| 3.08 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Harmon |
| 3.09 | RB | Carlos Hyde | Cahill |
| 3.10 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | Nazarek |
| 3.11 | RB | Ty Montgomery | Adams |
| 3.12 | RB | Isaiah Crowell | Allan |
| 4.01 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | Allan |
| 4.02 | RB | Spencer Ware | Adams |
| 4.03 | RB | Marshawn Lynch | Nazarek |
| 4.04 | WR | Keenan Allen | Cahill |
—Ian Allan