Buffalo and Dallas put up some remarkably good rushing numbers last year. That’s usually an good indication that both teams will drop a few notches. That’s how it tends to work with any great statistical production – it’s not easy outperforming everyone else.
Consider, for example, the 50 most productive rushing teams of the last 20 years. Of those teams, only five came back the next season and posted EVEN BETTER numbers. Only six other teams in that group didn’t decline by over 10 percent.
So of those 50 really good running teams, 78 percent of them declined the next year by over 10 percent. That’s using standard fantasy scoring (6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards).
Overall, those 50 teams (not including Buffalo and Dallas) averaged 2,403 rushing yards and 22.7 rushing touchdowns in their big seasons. They averaged 2,074 yards and 15.7 touchdowns the following year – declines of 329 yards and 7 TDs.
On this chart, teams are ordered by how they performed in their big season. (Note that Buffalo and Dallas weren’t only really good last year, they were great – coming in 2nd and 18th). But the vast majority of these kind of teams then tailed off as players got hurt, schedules got harder, and opponents did a better job of defending.
I’ve got the five improving teams in bold (and three come from teams in the bottom dozen – teams that weren’t as productive the previous year).
| TOP 50 RUSHING TEAMS OF LAST 20 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Run | TD | Points | Decline | Previous year |
| 2007 | San Diego | 2,039 | 19 | 241.4 | 68% | (2,578-32-353.1) |
| 2017 | • BUFFALO | ? | ? | ? | ? | (2,630-29-338.4) |
| 2009 | Carolina | 2,498 | 18 | 264.1 | 79% | (2,437-30-332.3) |
| 2005 | Kansas City | 2,382 | 26 | 304.8 | 93% | (2,289-31-329.0) |
| 2006 | Seattle | 1,923 | 8 | 168.1 | 51% | (2,457-29-327.5) |
| 2003 | Minnesota | 2,343 | 15 | 236.4 | 76% | (2,507-26-312.6) |
| 2004 | Kansas City | 2,289 | 31 | 329.0 | 105% | (1,929-32-312.5) |
| 1999 | Denver | 1,864 | 13 | 194.5 | 63% | (2,468-26-310.2) |
| 2006 | Denver | 2,152 | 12 | 206.5 | 67% | (2,539-25-308.6) |
| 2012 | Carolina | 2,088 | 21 | 256.5 | 84% | (2,408-26-306.5) |
| 2006 | Kansas City | 2,143 | 17 | 235.9 | 77% | (2,382-26-304.8) |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 1,929 | 32 | 312.5 | 103% | (2,378-26-304.6) |
| 2013 | Washington | 2,164 | 14 | 219.2 | 73% | (2,709-22-301.3) |
| 2003 | Miami | 1,817 | 14 | 197.5 | 66% | (2,502-24-300.3) |
| 2010 | NY Jets | 2,374 | 14 | 232.3 | 78% | (2,756-21-298.2) |
| 2007 | Jacksonville | 2,391 | 18 | 257.4 | 87% | (2,541-23-296.8) |
| 2008 | Minnesota | 2,332 | 15 | 235.7 | 79% | (2,634-22-296.6) |
| 2017 | • DALLAS | ? | ? | ? | ? | (2,396-24-293.8) |
| 2015 | Seattle | 2,268 | 10 | 201.7 | 69% | (2,762-20-292.6) |
| 2001 | Oakland | 1,654 | 14 | 187.3 | 64% | (2,470-23-292.3) |
| 2009 | Atlanta | 1,876 | 15 | 207.2 | 71% | (2,443-23-290.6) |
| 2005 | Atlanta | 2,546 | 17 | 261.1 | 91% | (2,672-20-287.0) |
| 2013 | New England | 2,065 | 19 | 243.0 | 85% | (2,184-25-286.5) |
| 2003 | Atlanta | 1,949 | 17 | 223.8 | 78% | (2,368-23-286.0) |
| 2004 | Denver | 2,333 | 13 | 223.8 | 79% | (2,629-20-284.3) |
| 2009 | Tennessee | 2,592 | 19 | 276.0 | 98% | (2,199-24-281.4) |
| 1997 | Washington | 1,615 | 12 | 172.9 | 61% | (1,910-27-281.3) |
| 2005 | San Diego | 2,072 | 22 | 261.5 | 93% | (2,185-24-280.5) |
| 2010 | Tennessee | 1,727 | 13 | 185.9 | 67% | (2,592-19-276.0) |
| 2002 | Pittsburgh | 2,120 | 15 | 222.5 | 81% | (2,774-17-275.3) |
| 2004 | Baltimore | 2,063 | 11 | 194.9 | 71% | (2,674-18-275.1) |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 1,992 | 16 | 220.5 | 80% | (2,566-19-274.3) |
| 1999 | San Francisco | 2,095 | 14 | 214.9 | 79% | (2,544-19-273.0) |
| 2010 | Miami | 1,643 | 8 | 150.6 | 56% | (2,231-22-271.4) |
| 2009 | NY Giants | 1,837 | 14 | 198.8 | 73% | (2,518-19-271.3) |
| 2001 | St. Louis | 2,027 | 20 | 246.6 | 91% | (1,843-26-271.1) |
| 2001 | Denver | 1,877 | 7 | 159.3 | 59% | (2,311-21-270.4) |
| 2011 | Oakland | 2,110 | 16 | 227.8 | 84% | (2,494-19-269.8) |
| 2010 | Baltimore | 1,831 | 11 | 180.4 | 67% | (2,200-22-269.5) |
| 1998 | Pittsburgh | 2,034 | 8 | 175.1 | 65% | (2,479-19-268.9) |
| 2009 | Baltimore | 2,200 | 22 | 269.5 | 100% | (2,376-20-268.5) |
| 2009 | New England | 1,921 | 19 | 234.0 | 87% | (2,278-21-268.3) |
| 1998 | Detroit | 1,955 | 12 | 194.1 | 72% | (2,464-19-268.0) |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 1,804 | 12 | 184.7 | 69% | (2,081-23-268.0) |
| 2004 | Green Bay | 1,908 | 9 | 173.2 | 65% | (2,558-18-267.8) |
| 2003 | Denver | 2,629 | 20 | 284.3 | 106% | (2,266-21-267.6) |
| 1997 | Denver | 2,378 | 18 | 256.6 | 96% | (2,362-20-267.6) |
| 2016 | Buffalo | 2,630 | 29 | 338.3 | 127% | (2,432-19-266.0) |
| 2000 | Washington | 1,748 | 14 | 193.2 | 73% | (2,039-23-265.4) |
| 2006 | Pittsburgh | 1,992 | 16 | 220.5 | 83% | (2,223-21-264.9) |
| 2010 | Carolina | 1,846 | 7 | 157.3 | 60% | (2,498-18-264.1) |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 1,639 | 10 | 162.4 | 62% | (2,015-23-263.9) |
—Ian Allan