Jameis Winston is talking up rookie tight end O.J. Howard. He thinks the team's first-round pick will be "amazing." The history, though, makes it a lot more likely that will happen in a future season -- not 2017.
Winston raved about Howard in an NFL Network interview. "This is the fastest, most athletic 6-6, 255 guy I've ever seen in my life," he said. "It's unreal."
In the last 20 years, though, 20 tight ends have been chosen in the first round. Only one of those players (Jeremy Shockey) ranked in the top 10 in his first season. That’s standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).
Three others were viable fantasy options: Heath Miller (11th), Dustin Keller (14th) and Tony Gonzalez (17th). Gonzalez caught only 33 passes and 2 TDs, but value must be determined relative to other players of his era, and tight ends weren’t used as much in 1997.
But the remaining 16 of the tight ends – 80 percent of them – finished outside the top 20. If you chose in your fantasy draft to not select them at all, you would have been just fine.
Howard and the other first-rounders (Evan Engram and David Njoku) will likely all rank outside the top 20 this year.
TIGHT ENDS CHOSEN IN FIRST ROUND, 1997-2016 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | No | Yards | TD | Pts | Rk |
2006 | 6 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 20 | 265 | 3 | 44.5 | 23 |
2004 | 6 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 5 | 50 | 0 | 5.0 | 83 |
2014 | 10 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 25 | 248 | 1 | 30.8 | 45 |
1997 | 13 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 33 | 368 | 2 | 50.8 | 17 |
2002 | 14 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 74 | 894 | 2 | 101.4 | 3 |
2000 | 14 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 34 | 363 | 1 | 42.3 | 22 |
2017 | 19 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2009 | 20 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 30 | 346 | 2 | 46.6 | 25 |
2010 | 21 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 52 | 471 | 4 | 73.1 | 21 |
2013 | 21 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39 | 445 | 2 | 56.5 | 29 |
2002 | 21 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 15 | 150 | 1 | 21.0 | 44 |
1997 | 22 | David LaFleur, Dall. | 18 | 122 | 2 | 24.2 | 36 |
2017 | 23 | Evan Engram, NYG | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2003 | 24 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 29 | 340 | 1 | 40.0 | 25 |
2000 | 27 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 16 | 144 | 2 | 26.4 | 37 |
2002 | 28 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 26 | 252 | 3 | 43.2 | 23 |
2006 | 28 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 13 | 126 | 1 | 18.6 | 45 |
2017 | 29 | David Njoku, Clev. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2005 | 30 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 39 | 459 | 6 | 81.9 | 11 |
2008 | 30 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 71.5 | 14 |
2007 | 31 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 39 | 391 | 2 | 53.1 | 21 |
2001 | 31 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 16 | 206 | 1 | 26.6 | 35 |
2004 | 32 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1.6 | 95 |
—Andy Richardson