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O.J. Howard

Winston sees big things for rookie

Jameis Winston is talking up rookie tight end O.J. Howard. He thinks the team's first-round pick will be "amazing." The history, though, makes it a lot more likely that will happen in a future season -- not 2017.

Winston raved about Howard in an NFL Network interview. "This is the fastest, most athletic 6-6, 255 guy I've ever seen in my life," he said. "It's unreal."

In the last 20 years, though, 20 tight ends have been chosen in the first round. Only one of those players (Jeremy Shockey) ranked in the top 10 in his first season. That’s standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).

Three others were viable fantasy options: Heath Miller (11th), Dustin Keller (14th) and Tony Gonzalez (17th). Gonzalez caught only 33 passes and 2 TDs, but value must be determined relative to other players of his era, and tight ends weren’t used as much in 1997.

But the remaining 16 of the tight ends – 80 percent of them – finished outside the top 20. If you chose in your fantasy draft to not select them at all, you would have been just fine.

Howard and the other first-rounders (Evan Engram and David Njoku) will likely all rank outside the top 20 this year.

TIGHT ENDS CHOSEN IN FIRST ROUND, 1997-2016
YearPkPlayerNoYardsTDPtsRk
20066Vernon Davis, S.F.20265344.523
20046Kellen Winslow, Clev.55005.083
201410Eric Ebron, Det.25248130.845
199713Tony Gonzalez, K.C.33368250.817
200214Jeremy Shockey, NYG748942101.43
200014Bubba Franks, G.B.34363142.322
201719O.J. Howard, T.B.?????
200920Brandon Pettigrew, Det.30346246.625
201021Jermaine Gresham, Cin.52471473.121
201321Tyler Eifert, Cin.39445256.529
200221Daniel Graham, N.E.15150121.044
199722David LaFleur, Dall.18122224.236
201723Evan Engram, NYG?????
200324Dallas Clark, Ind.29340140.025
200027Anthony Becht, NYJ16144226.437
200228Jerramy Stevens, Sea.26252343.223
200628Marcedes Lewis, Jac.13126118.645
201729David Njoku, Clev.?????
200530Heath Miller, Pitt.39459681.911
200830Dustin Keller, NYJ48535371.514
200731Greg Olsen, Chi.39391253.121
200131Todd Heap, Balt.16206126.635
200432Benjamin Watson, N.E.21601.695

—Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index