Deshaun Watson comes off a national championship, and he put up huge numbers his final two seasons at Clemson. But he also threw 30 interceptions in those years, including 17 in 2016. The kind of thing that might give Houston pause before hurrying him into the lineup.
It's not an automatic deal breaker. Plenty of recent first-round quarterbacks have thrown double-digit interceptions their final year of college, and that propensity for miscues hasn't carried over to their NFL careers. Reigning MVP Matt Ryan, for example, threw even more (19) in his final year at Boston College. So did Jameis Winston (18), and his pro career is working out fine so far.
But a lot of others whose interceptions climbed into the teens struck out in the NFL. The Browns have drafted three such quarterbacks this century, and none turned out to be the answer for them (and coincidentally traded down with Houston rather than select Watson). A lot of busts with those higher interception totals. (A lot of busts at quarterback in general, of course.)
Houston has talked about starting Tom Savage this season, bringing Watson along slowly. Most likely, both will start a bunch of games, but it might take a while before they're comfortable putting Watson into the lineup.
The table below shows final-year of college passing numbers from the past 20 years of first-round quarterbacks who threw 10-plus interceptions in that season. Some busts in there with high totals (e.g., Rex Grossman) but plenty of successes, too. Watson and Patrick Mahomes make the table; Mitchell Trubisky (6 interceptions last year) does not.
| FIRST-ROUND QBS (1997-2017), FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 388 | 654 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 305 | 467 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 388 | 579 | 4593 | 41 | 17 |
| Rex Grossman, Chi. | 287 | 503 | 3402 | 22 | 17 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 327 | 531 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| Tim Couch, Clev. | 400 | 553 | 4275 | 36 | 15 |
| J.P. Losman, Buff. | 251 | 422 | 3077 | 33 | 14 |
| Jared Goff, L.A. | 341 | 529 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
| Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 300 | 429 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
| Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 408 | 564 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
| Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 256 | 449 | 2935 | 22 | 13 |
| Chad Pennington, NYJ | 292 | 433 | 4006 | 38 | 12 |
| Peyton Manning, Ind. | 287 | 477 | 3819 | 36 | 11 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 388 | 591 | 5052 | 41 | 10 |
| EJ Manuel, Buff. | 263 | 387 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 288 | 404 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
| Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 241 | 366 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 235 | 383 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| Vince Young, Tenn. | 212 | 325 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
| Eli Manning, S.D. | 275 | 441 | 3600 | 29 | 10 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 342 | 495 | 4486 | 37 | 10 |
| Carson Palmer, Cin. | 309 | 489 | 3942 | 33 | 10 |
| Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 331 | 491 | 4268 | 30 | 10 |
| Kyle Boller, Balt. | 225 | 421 | 2815 | 28 | 10 |
| Cade McNown, Chi. | 188 | 323 | 3130 | 23 | 10 |
| Ryan Leaf, S.D. | 210 | 375 | 3637 | 33 | 10 |
--Andy Richardson