Todd Gurley looks like a key running back selection in the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts. If he performs near his rookie level, he can help win fantasy leagues. If he performs as he did in his second season, he'll be a blown pick. Which Gurley will we get in 2017?
For Gurley's part, he's feeling good about the coaching switch to Sean McVay. He says he's been loving the new offense, which he expects to be a better fit for him. He's saying nice things about quarterback Jared Goff, as well, whose development is key to Gurley's outlook.
For some perspective on how Gurley might fare, I took a look at other running backs drafted in the first two rounds who were successful as rookies. This century, there have been 15 backs selected that early who rushed for over 1,000 yards in their first seasons. Eight of those backs, like Gurley, then went out and disappointed in their second seasons, failing to rush for 1,000 yards (those eight include Jamal Lewis, who blew out his knee in the preseason).
In year 3, nearly half (seven) of those 15 backs went out and rushed for over 1,000 yards. Three were ones who, like Gurley, had disappointed in their second season.
Of the ones who disappointed in that third campaign, only Marshawn Lynch went on to have a great career. Of the ones who had big seasons, nearly all are among the league's very best running backs over the last decade. So it's a big season for Gurley. If he struggles this year, odds seem to be against him living up to that rookie promise.
Not sure how I feel about Gurley, but I'll definitely be watching him closely in the preseason.
| 1ST- AND 2ND-ROUND RBS, YEAR 3 (1000+ IN YEAR 1) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | RuYds(1) | RuYds(2) | RuYds(3) |
| Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 885 | ? |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 1683 | 1645 |
| Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1341 | 1760 | 1383 |
| Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1228 | 2006 | 1364 |
| Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 0 | 1327 |
| Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 1591 | 1315 |
| Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 929 | 1069 |
| Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1183 | 721 | 1024 |
| Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 794 | 839 |
| Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 1139 | 758 |
| Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 664 | 689 |
| Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 1072 | 544 |
| Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 456 | 494 |
| Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 1036 | 450 |
| Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 798 | 208 |
--Andy Richardson