Jameis Winston says O.J. Howard is going to be a superstar who’ll knock everyone’s socks off. “Just sit back and watch,” the quarterback says. Should we all be looking to add the first tight end drafted to our fantasy rosters?
Winston’s comments are part of article posted by Joe Kania at the team’s web site. The praise is piled on pretty thick.
“What he’s going to do to this team is going to be amazing,” Winston said. “This is the fastest, most athletic 6-foot-6 (and) 255-pound guy I’ve ever seen in my life. It’s unreal. He looks like he’s 230 but he’s about 260 or 255. It’s amazing.”
Sounds good in theory. Maybe Howard truly is an outlier player. But the general rule of thumb is to avoid rookie tight ends like the plague. It’s simply very unusual for them to make much of an impact in their first year.
Of the top 100 tight ends of the last 10 years, in fact, only one was a rookie (2010 Rob Gronkowski, who put up the 66th best tight end numbers of the last 10 seasons). That’s using standard fantasy scoring.
TOP 100 TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points |
2011 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 90 | 1327 | 18 | 240.7 |
2013 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 86 | 1215 | 16 | 217.5 |
2011 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 99 | 1310 | 11 | 197.0 |
2014 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 82 | 1124 | 12 | 184.4 |
2015 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 72 | 1176 | 11 | 183.6 |
2009 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 78 | 965 | 13 | 174.5 |
2009 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 100 | 1106 | 10 | 170.6 |
2008 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 96 | 1058 | 10 | 165.8 |
2009 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 79 | 1157 | 8 | 163.7 |
2013 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 52 | 850 | 13 | 163.0 |
2015 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 87 | 952 | 11 | 161.2 |
2015 | Gary Barnidge, Clev. | 79 | 1043 | 9 | 158.3 |
2007 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 96 | 1145 | 7 | 156.5 |
2010 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 94 | 1002 | 9 | 156.2 |
2014 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 69 | 821 | 12 | 154.1 |
2015 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 77 | 1104 | 7 | 152.4 |
2007 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 75 | 984 | 9 | 152.4 |
2012 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 85 | 982 | 9 | 152.2 |
2013 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 65 | 788 | 12 | 150.8 |
2014 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 85 | 889 | 10 | 148.9 |
2007 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 99 | 1172 | 5 | 147.2 |
2015 | Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 94 | 1088 | 6 | 146.8 |
2009 | Brent Celek, Phil. | 76 | 971 | 8 | 145.1 |
2012 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 55 | 790 | 11 | 145.0 |
2007 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 82 | 1106 | 5 | 142.6 |
2012 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 93 | 930 | 8 | 141.0 |
2015 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 52 | 615 | 13 | 139.5 |
2016 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 85 | 1125 | 4 | 138.5 |
2010 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 50 | 782 | 10 | 138.2 |
2014 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 84 | 1008 | 6 | 136.8 |
2013 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 83 | 859 | 8 | 135.9 |
2010 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 56 | 914 | 7 | 135.4 |
2013 | Jordan Cameron, Clev. | 80 | 917 | 7 | 133.7 |
2013 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 73 | 851 | 8 | 133.1 |
2011 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 79 | 910 | 7 | 133.0 |
2014 | Martellus Bennett, Chi. | 90 | 916 | 6 | 131.6 |
2012 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 71 | 816 | 8 | 131.6 |
2010 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 58 | 700 | 10 | 130.0 |
2011 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 80 | 875 | 7 | 129.5 |
2007 | Chris Cooley, Wash. | 66 | 786 | 8 | 128.6 |
2016 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 65 | 923 | 6 | 128.3 |
2007 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 58 | 616 | 11 | 127.6 |
2016 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 80 | 1073 | 3 | 127.3 |
2016 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 83 | 840 | 7 | 126.0 |
2014 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 51 | 774 | 8 | 125.4 |
2011 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 55 | 767 | 8 | 124.7 |
2011 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 79 | 942 | 5 | 124.2 |
2009 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 83 | 867 | 6 | 122.7 |
2009 | Visanthe Shiancoe, Minn. | 56 | 566 | 11 | 122.6 |
2014 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 67 | 862 | 6 | 122.2 |
2016 | Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 65 | 800 | 7 | 122.0 |
2012 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 110 | 1039 | 3 | 121.9 |
2015 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 72 | 875 | 5 | 121.5 |
2014 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 43 | 489 | 12 | 120.9 |
2008 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 77 | 848 | 6 | 120.8 |
2011 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 64 | 778 | 7 | 119.8 |
2008 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 81 | 952 | 4 | 119.2 |
2015 | Benjamin Watson, N.O. | 74 | 825 | 6 | 118.5 |
2009 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 77 | 884 | 5 | 118.4 |
2008 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 60 | 704 | 8 | 118.4 |
2013 | Charles Clay, Mia. | 69 | 759 | 7 | 117.9 |
2013 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 73 | 816 | 6 | 117.6 |
2011 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 67 | 792 | 6 | 115.2 |
2009 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 94 | 1030 | 2 | 115.0 |
2009 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 76 | 789 | 6 | 114.9 |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 546 | 10 | 114.6 |
2012 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 69 | 843 | 5 | 114.3 |
2016 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 57 | 660 | 8 | 114.0 |
2014 | Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 63 | 890 | 4 | 113.0 |
2016 | Martellus Bennett, N.E. | 55 | 701 | 7 | 112.1 |
2011 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 65 | 815 | 5 | 111.5 |
2013 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 77 | 872 | 4 | 111.2 |
2011 | Brent Celek, Phil. | 62 | 811 | 5 | 111.1 |
2009 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 60 | 612 | 8 | 109.2 |
2012 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 61 | 669 | 7 | 108.9 |
2011 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 83 | 777 | 5 | 107.7 |
2012 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 62 | 716 | 6 | 107.6 |
2013 | Martellus Bennett, Chi. | 65 | 759 | 5 | 105.9 |
2016 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 78 | 816 | 4 | 105.6 |
2012 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 53 | 493 | 9 | 105.3 |
2010 | Chris Cooley, Wash. | 77 | 849 | 3 | 104.9 |
2016 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 66 | 686 | 6 | 104.6 |
2012 | Brandon Myers, Oak. | 79 | 806 | 4 | 104.6 |
2012 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 64 | 737 | 5 | 103.7 |
2010 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 66 | 730 | 5 | 103.0 |
2010 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 70 | 656 | 6 | 101.6 |
2008 | Visanthe Shiancoe, Minn. | 42 | 596 | 7 | 101.6 |
2015 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 58 | 510 | 8 | 101.0 |
2014 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 64 | 703 | 5 | 100.3 |
2009 | John Carlson, Sea. | 51 | 574 | 7 | 99.4 |
2010 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 55 | 687 | 5 | 98.7 |
2007 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 47 | 566 | 7 | 98.6 |
2010 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 60 | 685 | 5 | 98.5 |
2009 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 66 | 805 | 3 | 98.5 |
2014 | Larry Donnell, NYG | 63 | 623 | 6 | 98.3 |
2008 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 70 | 862 | 2 | 98.2 |
2011 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 59 | 796 | 3 | 97.6 |
2009 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 55 | 676 | 5 | 97.6 |
2015 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 75 | 853 | 2 | 97.3 |
2013 | Jared Cook, St.L. | 51 | 671 | 5 | 97.1 |
In a typical year, you tend to see no tight ends in the top 10 statistically, and about one in the top 20. Here are the nine rookies who didn’t rank in the top 100 (since 2007) but at least ranked in the top 200.
ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS IN THE SECOND HUNDRED (101-200) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points |
104 | 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 36 | 478 | 8 | 95.8 |
115 | 2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 55 | 627 | 5 | 92.7 |
118 | 2010 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 45 | 563 | 6 | 92.3 |
129 | 2013 | Tim Wright, T.B. | 54 | 571 | 5 | 87.1 |
184 | 2010 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 47 | 556 | 3 | 73.6 |
185 | 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 52 | 471 | 4 | 73.1 |
191 | 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 71.5 |
194 | 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36 | 469 | 4 | 70.9 |
199 | 2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 45 | 521 | 3 | 70.1 |
So while Howard, David Njoku and Evan Engram will be kicked around as sleeper prospects, chances are none of them will put up particularly good numbers this season. They’ll need time to develop.
For fantasy purposes, I am more interested in the rookies from last year who might now be ready to do more – Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and even Tyler Higbee.
—Ian Allan