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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston talks up O.J. Howard

Jameis Winston says O.J. Howard is going to be a superstar who’ll knock everyone’s socks off. “Just sit back and watch,” the quarterback says. Should we all be looking to add the first tight end drafted to our fantasy rosters?

Winston’s comments are part of article posted by Joe Kania at the team’s web site. The praise is piled on pretty thick.

“What he’s going to do to this team is going to be amazing,” Winston said. “This is the fastest, most athletic 6-foot-6 (and) 255-pound guy I’ve ever seen in my life. It’s unreal. He looks like he’s 230 but he’s about 260 or 255. It’s amazing.”

Sounds good in theory. Maybe Howard truly is an outlier player. But the general rule of thumb is to avoid rookie tight ends like the plague. It’s simply very unusual for them to make much of an impact in their first year.

Of the top 100 tight ends of the last 10 years, in fact, only one was a rookie (2010 Rob Gronkowski, who put up the 66th best tight end numbers of the last 10 seasons). That’s using standard fantasy scoring.

TOP 100 TIGHT ENDS OF THE LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerNoYardsTDPoints
2011Rob Gronkowski, N.E.90132718240.7
2013Jimmy Graham, N.O.86121516217.5
2011Jimmy Graham, N.O.99131011197.0
2014Rob Gronkowski, N.E.82112412184.4
2015Rob Gronkowski, N.E.72117611183.6
2009Vernon Davis, S.F.7896513174.5
2009Dallas Clark, Ind.100110610170.6
2008Tony Gonzalez, K.C.96105810165.8
2009Antonio Gates, S.D.7911578163.7
2013Vernon Davis, S.F.5285013163.0
2015Jordan Reed, Wash.8795211161.2
2015Gary Barnidge, Clev.7910439158.3
2007Jason Witten, Dall.9611457156.5
2010Jason Witten, Dall.9410029156.2
2014Antonio Gates, S.D.6982112154.1
2015Greg Olsen, Car.7711047152.4
2007Antonio Gates, S.D.759849152.4
2012Jimmy Graham, N.O.859829152.2
2013Julius Thomas, Den.6578812150.8
2014Jimmy Graham, N.O.8588910148.9
2007Tony Gonzalez, K.C.9911725147.2
2015Delanie Walker, Tenn.9410886146.8
2009Brent Celek, Phil.769718145.1
2012Rob Gronkowski, N.E.5579011145.0
2007Kellen Winslow, Clev.8211065142.6
2012Tony Gonzalez, Atl.939308141.0
2015Tyler Eifert, Cin.5261513139.5
2016Travis Kelce, K.C.8511254138.5
2010Antonio Gates, S.D.5078210138.2
2014Greg Olsen, Car.8410086136.8
2013Tony Gonzalez, Atl.838598135.9
2010Vernon Davis, S.F.569147135.4
2013Jordan Cameron, Clev.809177133.7
2013Jason Witten, Dall.738518133.1
2011Aaron Hernandez, N.E.799107133.0
2014Martellus Bennett, Chi.909166131.6
2012Heath Miller, Pitt.718168131.6
2010Marcedes Lewis, Jac.5870010130.0
2011Tony Gonzalez, Atl.808757129.5
2007Chris Cooley, Wash.667868128.6
2016Jimmy Graham, Sea.659236128.3
2007Dallas Clark, Ind.5861611127.6
2016Greg Olsen, Car.8010733127.3
2016Kyle Rudolph, Minn.838407126.0
2014Coby Fleener, Ind.517748125.4
2011Jermichael Finley, G.B.557678124.7
2011Jason Witten, Dall.799425124.2
2009Tony Gonzalez, Atl.838676122.7
2009Visanthe Shiancoe, Minn.5656611122.6
2014Travis Kelce, K.C.678626122.2
2016Delanie Walker, Tenn.658007122.0
2012Jason Witten, Dall.11010393121.9
2015Travis Kelce, K.C.728755121.5
2014Julius Thomas, Den.4348912120.9
2008Dallas Clark, Ind.778486120.8
2011Antonio Gates, S.D.647787119.8
2008Jason Witten, Dall.819524119.2
2015Benjamin Watson, N.O.748256118.5
2009Kellen Winslow, T.B.778845118.4
2008Antonio Gates, S.D.607048118.4
2013Charles Clay, Mia.697597117.9
2013Greg Olsen, Car.738166117.6
2011Vernon Davis, S.F.677926115.2
2009Jason Witten, Dall.9410302115.0
2009Heath Miller, Pitt.767896114.9
2010Rob Gronkowski, N.E.4254610114.6
2012Greg Olsen, Car.698435114.3
2016Cameron Brate, T.B.576608114.0
2014Delanie Walker, Tenn.638904113.0
2016Martellus Bennett, N.E.557017112.1
2011Dustin Keller, NYJ658155111.5
2013Antonio Gates, S.D.778724111.2
2011Brent Celek, Phil.628115111.1
2009Greg Olsen, Chi.606128109.2
2012Dennis Pitta, Balt.616697108.9
2011Brandon Pettigrew, Det.837775107.7
2012Owen Daniels, Hou.627166107.6
2013Martellus Bennett, Chi.657595105.9
2016Zach Ertz, Phil.788164105.6
2012Kyle Rudolph, Minn.534939105.3
2010Chris Cooley, Wash.778493104.9
2016Jordan Reed, Wash.666866104.6
2012Brandon Myers, Oak.798064104.6
2012Jermaine Gresham, Cin.647375103.7
2010Kellen Winslow, T.B.667305103.0
2010Tony Gonzalez, Atl.706566101.6
2008Visanthe Shiancoe, Minn.425967101.6
2015Richard Rodgers, G.B.585108101.0
2014Jason Witten, Dall.647035100.3
2009John Carlson, Sea.51574799.4
2010Dustin Keller, NYJ55687598.7
2007Heath Miller, Pitt.47566798.6
2010Zach Miller, Oak.60685598.5
2009Zach Miller, Oak.66805398.5
2014Larry Donnell, NYG63623698.3
2008Owen Daniels, Hou.70862298.2
2011Fred Davis, Wash.59796397.6
2009Jermichael Finley, G.B.55676597.6
2015Zach Ertz, Phil.75853297.3
2013Jared Cook, St.L.51671597.1

In a typical year, you tend to see no tight ends in the top 10 statistically, and about one in the top 20. Here are the nine rookies who didn’t rank in the top 100 (since 2007) but at least ranked in the top 200.

ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS IN THE SECOND HUNDRED (101-200)
RankYearPlayerNoYardsTDPoints
1042016Hunter Henry, S.D.36478895.8
1152008John Carlson, Sea.55627592.7
1182010Aaron Hernandez, N.E.45563692.3
1292013Tim Wright, T.B.54571587.1
1842010Tony Moeaki, K.C.47556373.6
1852010Jermaine Gresham, Cin.52471473.1
1912008Dustin Keller, NYJ48535371.5
1942013Zach Ertz, Phil.36469470.9
1992012Dwayne Allen, Ind.45521370.1

So while Howard, David Njoku and Evan Engram will be kicked around as sleeper prospects, chances are none of them will put up particularly good numbers this season. They’ll need time to develop.

For fantasy purposes, I am more interested in the rookies from last year who might now be ready to do more – Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and even Tyler Higbee.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index