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Strength of schedule

Difficulty of schedule for rushing, passing

There was a request last week for Strength of Schedule info. A couple of readers said they wanted to see position-specific scheduling data. (They may have just wanted to get another peek at the flexing biceps graphic.)

Anywho, I’ve run the numbers, and they are as follows …

For rushing, the Jets, Patriots and Titans project to play the easiest schedules, while the Browns, 49ers and Bucs project to play the hardest. That’s using standard fantasy scoring (6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Rushing)
TeamYardsTDPoints
NY Jets116.9217.1
New England114.9317.0
Tennessee113.9316.9
Carolina113.8916.7
LA Chargers115.8616.7
Indianapolis110.9416.6
LA Rams108.9516.5
Baltimore113.8516.5
Dallas109.9216.4
NY Giants110.9016.4
Kansas City109.9116.4
Arizona110.8916.4
Philadelphia108.9316.3
Seattle109.9116.3
Cincinnati111.8616.2
Denver110.8516.1
Houston109.8516.0
Jacksonville107.8816.0
Minnesota108.8616.0
Buffalo111.8015.9
New Orleans109.8215.8
Miami106.8615.8
Chicago109.8015.7
Oakland108.8115.7
Detroit106.8515.7
Washington105.8515.6
Green Bay107.8215.6
Atlanta105.8215.5
Pittsburgh109.7615.5
Tampa Bay104.8315.4
San Francisco100.8515.1
Cleveland103.7915.0

For passing, the Vikings, Bears and Saints project to play the easiest schedules, while the Colts, Raiders and Kansas City project to play the hardest.

Note that four of the six easiest schedules (for passing) belong to the four teams in the NFC South. This is probably influenced by all of those teams having good quarterbacks and playing each other twice per year. Any team that played four games last year against the Saints and Falcons would appear to have a somewhat soft pass defense.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Passing)
TeamYardsTDPoints
Minnesota2641.7336.8
Chicago2621.7336.6
New Orleans2621.6736.2
Carolina2621.6736.2
Tampa Bay2641.6236.1
Atlanta2631.5935.8
Buffalo2601.5835.5
Detroit2591.5735.3
Green Bay2561.6035.2
Baltimore2551.6235.2
Seattle2561.5935.2
Pittsburgh2521.6335.0
Denver2611.4834.9
Miami2581.5134.9
Jacksonville2541.5634.7
Houston2551.5434.7
NY Jets2561.5234.7
New England2551.5334.7
Arizona2541.5334.6
NY Giants2551.5034.5
Cleveland2531.5334.5
Dallas2571.4534.4
Cincinnati2491.5734.3
Philadelphia2571.3934.0
Tennessee2461.5533.9
Washington2541.4133.9
San Francisco2521.4333.8
LA Rams2521.4133.7
LA Chargers2501.4433.7
Oakland2531.3833.6
Kansas City2501.3633.2
Indianapolis2431.4332.9

And as a free bonus, I’m throwing in touchdowns. Four teams will play schedules against defenses that (on average) allowed more than 40 touchdowns last year: Vikings, Panthers, Bears and Seahawks. Things change from year to year, of course, but those offenses might be helped along by playing lesser defenses.

Five teams play schedules against defense that (on average) allowed fewer than 37 touchdowns last year: Oakland, Washington, Kansas City, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Chargers.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Touchdowns)
TeamPassRunTotal
Minnesota27.713.841.4
Carolina26.814.341.1
Chicago27.812.940.6
Seattle25.514.540.0
New Orleans26.713.139.8
Tennessee24.814.939.6
Baltimore25.913.639.5
New England24.414.939.4
Tampa Bay25.913.339.2
Jacksonville25.014.139.1
NY Jets24.314.839.1
Arizona24.514.338.8
Cincinnati25.113.838.8
Detroit25.213.638.8
Green Bay25.613.138.8
Atlanta25.413.238.6
NY Giants24.014.438.4
Houston24.613.638.2
Pittsburgh26.112.138.2
Buffalo25.312.838.1
Indianapolis22.915.037.9
Dallas23.114.837.9
Miami24.113.737.8
LA Rams22.615.137.8
Denver23.613.637.3
Cleveland24.512.737.2
Philadelphia22.314.837.1
LA Chargers23.113.736.8
San Francisco22.913.636.4
Kansas City21.814.536.3
Washington22.613.636.3
Oakland22.113.035.1

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index