If you’re in a fantasy league where defenses are getting significant bonuses tied to how many points they’re allowing, it makes sense to pay some attention to scheduling. In today’s game, no defense can keep a good offense like the Patriots, Packers or Saints off the scoreboard. It’s worrying to take a defense from the NFC South, for example, with that division having four good quarterbacks – Brees, Ryan, Newton and Winston.
So let’s take a quick look at the scheduling. I took my projected numbers, then tied them to the actual NFL schedule.
I didn’t use scoring data from the 2016 season, because teams change. Buffalo’s offense, for example, scored 46 touchdowns last year, but I’m confident that will be a bottom-10 group this year. So I instead took my forecast for each of the 32 teams, then plug them into the actual schedule.
I think most fantasy leagues are done before Week 17, so I left those games out. That helps the Jets and Lions (saves them an extra game against the Patriots and Packers).
So it’s 15 games for each team, and then we can look at the average number of touchdowns passing and rushing each team should face (the numbers you see are averages per 16 games).
Teams in the AFC South (which I have tagged with black dots •) project to have the easiest schedules – 3 of the top 4 spots, with Houston also in the top 10.
The AFC North (which I have in bold) also have all of their teams in the top 10. Cleveland is doing some good things, but it’s still a lesser offense, with a rookie leading a bunch of other youngsters, and I think Baltimore’s offense might finish in the bottom 5. Bengals have skill guys but questions on their offensive line.
The NFC South (marked with double daggers) all show up in the bottom dozen. They have harder schedules. But the schedules aren’t as ugly as I expected. They don’t dominate the bottom the way those two AFC divisions dominate the top.
The Bills project to play the hardest schedule of all.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (for defenses) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| • Indianapolis | 22.7 | 12.8 | 35.4 |
| Cincinnati | 24.0 | 11.7 | 35.7 |
| • Tennessee | 24.0 | 11.8 | 35.7 |
| • Jacksonville | 24.3 | 11.6 | 35.8 |
| Cleveland | 24.7 | 11.2 | 35.9 |
| Arizona | 24.4 | 11.7 | 36.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 24.4 | 12.0 | 36.4 |
| LA Chargers | 23.5 | 13.2 | 36.7 |
| Seattle | 25.0 | 12.3 | 37.3 |
| Baltimore | 25.2 | 12.1 | 37.3 |
| • Houston | 24.5 | 12.9 | 37.3 |
| Oakland | 24.5 | 12.9 | 37.4 |
| San Francisco | 24.8 | 13.1 | 37.9 |
| Green Bay | 25.2 | 12.8 | 38.0 |
| Philadelphia | 25.6 | 12.5 | 38.1 |
| New England | 25.0 | 13.1 | 38.1 |
| Detroit | 25.9 | 12.5 | 38.4 |
| NY Giants | 25.3 | 13.3 | 38.6 |
| LA Rams | 25.7 | 13.0 | 38.7 |
| NY Jets | 25.2 | 13.5 | 38.7 |
| ‡‡ New Orleans | 26.0 | 12.8 | 38.8 |
| Washington | 25.3 | 13.6 | 38.9 |
| Denver | 26.4 | 12.8 | 39.2 |
| Kansas City | 26.5 | 12.8 | 39.3 |
| Dallas | 27.2 | 12.1 | 39.3 |
| ‡‡ Carolina | 26.7 | 12.7 | 39.4 |
| Minnesota | 27.4 | 12.1 | 39.6 |
| Chicago | 27.3 | 12.3 | 39.6 |
| Miami | 26.4 | 13.5 | 39.9 |
| ‡‡ Tampa Bay | 26.9 | 13.3 | 40.2 |
| ‡‡ Atlanta | 27.1 | 13.2 | 40.3 |
| Buffalo | 27.2 | 13.2 | 40.4 |
—Ian Allan