Sometimes it seems that the worst defense is a good offense. With teams that are putting up plenty of yards and points – think Saints, Patriots, Packers in some recent years – there’s maybe a tendency for opponents to be forced to open up offensively to keep pace. Opponents can (in theory) pick up more garbage-time stats against prevent defenses.
Or is better to target a lesser opponent (Browns, Jets, 49ers, Rams) figuring those teams will generally struggle, in part because they have offenses that can’t stay on the field (giving opponents more opportunities and time of possession).
So I poked around some with the concept of picking a defense not on its own merits, but on the quality of the team’s offense. Is there any merit there? Or are we better (when picking defenses) to focus simply on the defense itself?
The league has had 32 teams for the last 15 years. That’s 480 teams, making for a sizable chunk we can look at.
For this study, I’m looking just at yards gained, rushing and passing (leaving out yards lost on sacks). I took the yards gained for each of those 480 offenses, and then looked at how many yards they allowed going the other way.
The results are modestly interesting. Of the 15 teams ranking No. 1 in offense, those teams had defenses allowing an average of 5,817 yards – the 2nd-most. And the No. 2 offenses allowed an average of 5,913 yards – the most.
The 15 No. 3 offenses also ranked in the bottom-5 defensively, and it seems we’re sort of onto something – maybe there’s something to the idea that teams with good offenses tend to allow more yards (with their games more often becoming shootouts or whatever).
But the results get more random when you look at the other 29 team positions.
Coming in at No. 4, we have teams allowing an average of 5,292 yards (2nd fewest). And the two other slots with the leakiest defenses come not from good offense, but from teams ranking 26th and 31st offensively.
I don’t think there’s anything useful going on here that we can latch onto.
Here are the results of the 480 teams (15 in each of the 32 slots). Teams in bold ranked in the bottom-5 defensive (most total yards). Teams with black dots allowed the fewest total yards.
On average, teams allowed 1,828 rushing yards and 3,770 passing yards per season.
| OFFENSE/DEFENSE COMPARISON SINCE 2002 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off | Run | Pass | Total | Rank |
| 1 | 1,782 | 4,035 | 5,817 | 31 |
| 2 | 1,824 | 4,088 | 5,913 | 32 |
| 3 | 1,850 | 3,912 | 5,762 | 29 |
| 4 | •1,609 | •3,683 | •5,292 | 2 |
| 5 | 1,672 | 3,981 | 5,654 | 20 |
| 6 | 1,877 | 3,752 | 5,630 | 17 |
| 7 | 1,721 | 3,752 | 5,473 | 7 |
| 8 | 1,879 | 3,854 | 5,733 | 27 |
| 9 | 1,729 | 3,801 | 5,530 | 11 |
| 10 | 1,843 | 3,755 | 5,599 | 15 |
| 11 | 1,807 | 3,733 | 5,540 | 12 |
| 12 | •1,651 | •3,734 | •5,385 | 5 |
| 13 | 1,657 | 3,858 | 5,516 | 9 |
| 14 | 1,782 | 3,698 | 5,480 | 8 |
| 15 | 1,799 | 3,748 | 5,547 | 13 |
| 16 | 1,763 | 3,960 | 5,723 | 25 |
| 17 | 1,771 | 3,754 | 5,525 | 10 |
| 18 | 1,847 | 3,798 | 5,646 | 19 |
| 19 | 1,818 | 3,633 | 5,451 | 6 |
| 20 | •1,735 | •3,642 | •5,378 | 3 |
| 21 | 1,756 | 3,815 | 5,571 | 14 |
| 22 | •1,653 | •3,599 | •5,253 | 1 |
| 23 | 1,971 | 3,695 | 5,666 | 21 |
| 24 | •1,768 | •3,615 | •5,384 | 4 |
| 25 | 1,938 | 3,671 | 5,609 | 16 |
| 26 | 1,922 | 3,822 | 5,745 | 28 |
| 27 | 1,894 | 3,750 | 5,645 | 18 |
| 28 | 2,048 | 3,652 | 5,700 | 23 |
| 29 | 2,105 | 3,623 | 5,729 | 26 |
| 30 | 1,985 | 3,693 | 5,679 | 22 |
| 31 | 2,042 | 3,766 | 5,809 | 30 |
| 32 | 1,968 | 3,740 | 5,709 | 24 |
In the last 15 years, eight teams with bottom-5 offenses have ranked in the top-5 defensively (yards only). This includes Houston, Denver and Minnesota last year.
| BOTTOM-5 OFFENSES WITH TOP-5 DEFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Off | Run | Pass | Total | Rank |
| 2002 | Carolina | 31 | 1,653 | 3,329 | 4,982 | 2 |
| 2003 | Buffalo | 28 | 1,606 | 2,938 | 4,544 | 2 |
| 2004 | Washington | 30 | 1,304 | 3,222 | 4,526 | 2 |
| 2005 | Chicago | 31 | 1,637 | 3,147 | 4,784 | 2 |
| 2006 | Oakland | 32 | 2,144 | 2,631 | 4,775 | 3 |
| 2016 | Houston | 30 | 1,595 | 3,424 | 5,019 | 1 |
| 2016 | Denver | 28 | 2,085 | 3,200 | 5,285 | 3 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 29 | 1,711 | 3,637 | 5,348 | 5 |
During the same time period, there have been 15 teams with bottom-5 offenses that also ranked in the bottom-5 defensively. Almost twice as many. This includes San Francisco in each of the last two seasons.
| BOTTOM-5 OFFENSES WITH BOTTOM-5 DEFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Off | Run | Pass | Total | Rank |
| 2002 | Detroit | 30 | 1,967 | 4,404 | 6,371 | 31 |
| 2003 | Houston | 31 | 2,370 | 3,835 | 6,205 | 31 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | 30 | 2,308 | 4,005 | 6,313 | 32 |
| 2005 | Buffalo | 29 | 2,205 | 3,560 | 5,765 | 29 |
| 2005 | Houston | 28 | 2,303 | 3,727 | 6,030 | 31 |
| 2005 | San Francisco | 32 | 1,832 | 4,620 | 6,452 | 32 |
| 2007 | Buffalo | 31 | 1,993 | 3,958 | 5,951 | 31 |
| 2008 | Seattle | 30 | 1,899 | 4,342 | 6,241 | 30 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 28 | 2,754 | 3,907 | 6,661 | 32 |
| 2009 | St. Louis | 29 | 2,201 | 3,913 | 6,114 | 29 |
| 2009 | Cleveland | 32 | 2,314 | 4,149 | 6,463 | 32 |
| 2010 | Tennessee | 28 | 1,851 | 4,304 | 6,155 | 28 |
| 2010 | Arizona | 31 | 2,323 | 3,881 | 6,204 | 29 |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 31 | 2,020 | 4,375 | 6,395 | 29 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 31 | 2,654 | 4,013 | 6,667 | 32 |
In the last 15 years, only 10 teams have finished seasons with both a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense.
| TOP-5 OFFENSES WITH TOP-5 DEFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Off | Run | Pass | Total | Rank |
| 2002 | Denver | 3 | 1,489 | 3,588 | 5,077 | 5 |
| 2004 | Denver | 5 | 1,512 | 3,213 | 4,725 | 4 |
| 2007 | New England | 1 | 1,572 | 3,381 | 4,953 | 5 |
| 2009 | Green Bay | 4 | 1,333 | 3,450 | 4,783 | 2 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 1 | 1,500 | 3,135 | 4,635 | 1 |
| 2012 | Denver | 4 | 1,458 | 3,558 | 5,016 | 3 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 4 | 1,786 | 3,441 | 5,227 | 3 |
| 2014 | Denver | 4 | 1,276 | 3,859 | 5,135 | 3 |
| 2015 | Seattle | 4 | 1,304 | 3,564 | 4,868 | 1 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 2 | 1,460 | 3,957 | 5,417 | 5 |
During the same time period, 16 teams have had top-5 offenses but bottom-5 defenses. This includes Washington last year.
| TOP-5 OFFENSES WITH BOTTOM-5 DEFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Off | Run | Pass | Total | Rank |
| 2002 | Kansas City | 5 | 2,067 | 4,396 | 6,463 | 32 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 2 | 2,344 | 3,614 | 5,958 | 29 |
| 2004 | Kansas City | 1 | 1,834 | 4,453 | 6,287 | 31 |
| 2004 | Indianapolis | 2 | 2,037 | 4,232 | 6,269 | 30 |
| 2004 | Minnesota | 3 | 2,006 | 4,130 | 6,136 | 29 |
| 2008 | Denver | 2 | 2,337 | 3,797 | 6,134 | 28 |
| 2010 | Houston | 3 | 1,751 | 4,499 | 6,250 | 30 |
| 2011 | New England | 2 | 1,874 | 4,977 | 6,851 | 32 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 3 | 1,789 | 4,988 | 6,777 | 31 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 2 | 2,361 | 4,875 | 7,236 | 32 |
| 2012 | Washington | 5 | 1,532 | 4,720 | 6,252 | 29 |
| 2013 | Philadelphia | 2 | 1,668 | 4,907 | 6,575 | 30 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 5 | 1,771 | 4,595 | 6,366 | 31 |
| 2014 | New Orleans | 1 | 2,125 | 4,207 | 6,332 | 30 |
| 2015 | New Orleans | 1 | 2,071 | 4,755 | 6,826 | 31 |
| 2016 | Washington | 3 | 1,916 | 4,383 | 6,299 | 28 |
—Ian Allan