There is an advantage to picking first. I’m in the middle of a 20-round PPR draft, and I noticed (holding the 10th pick) that there weren’t any players there I was excited about. Those guys look pretty similar to what’s being chosen in the middle of the second round.
So I ran the numbers, calculating expected return at each draft slot if I were selecting all 12 teams.
First I put together my over top 48 – showing the players I felt should be chosen in the first four rounds. This is a PPR league with three starting wide receivers and a flex, so wide receivers are more heavily represented. The numbers you see aren’t total fantasy points but adjusted totals (subtracting the baseline totals at each position to create an apples-to-apples comparison).
That is, I may figure I can get a lesser but serviceable wide receiver like Mohamed Sanu for relatively nothing. He’ll be there in the 14th round if you want him. So the totals for the wide receivers don’t show their overall totals, they show what’s left after you remove a Sanu-type chunk of production. You pick a Sanu-type at each position, and then we can more accurately compare those from different positions. With quarterbacks, for example, you can get a Flacco or Bradford for essentially nothing, so with the good quarterbacks, you look at how much better they will be than Flacco and Bradford.
| IAN'S TOP-48 FOR FANEX DRAFT | |
|---|---|
| Player | Pts |
| RB David Johnson | 209 |
| RB LeVeon Bell | 198 |
| WR Antonio Brown | 167 |
| RB Ezekiel Elliott | 140 |
| WR Odell Beckham Jr. | 121 |
| WR Julio Jones | 117 |
| WR Jordy Nelson | 115 |
| RB Melvin Gordon | 110 |
| • WR Michael Thomas | 108 |
| RB LeSean McCoy | 107 |
| WR Mike Evans | 106 |
| RB Devonta Freeman | 105 |
| • WR T.Y. Hilton | 99 |
| QB Aaron Rodgers | 94 |
| RB Jordan Howard | 92 |
| WR Amari Cooper | 88 |
| RB Todd Gurley | 87 |
| • WR Tyreek Hill | 87 |
| WR A.J. Green | 85 |
| QB Tom Brady | 84 |
| • WR Larry Fitzgerald | 84 |
| RB Ty Montgomery | 82 |
| RB Isaiah Crowell | 81 |
| • RB Mark Ingram | 81 |
| WR Michael Crabtree | 81 |
| WR Demaryius Thomas | 80 |
| WR Doug Baldwin | 79 |
| WR Dez Bryant | 76 |
| WR Golden Tate | 74 |
| WR DeAndre Hopkins | 74 |
| TE Travis Kelce | 74 |
| RB DeMarco Murray | 73 |
| RB Dalvin Cook | 72 |
| • TE Zach Ertz | 71 |
| WR Keenan Allen | 70 |
| RB Leonard Fournette | 69 |
| TE Greg Olsen | 68 |
| WR Emmanuel Sanders | 68 |
| QB Drew Brees | 66 |
| TE Rob Gronkowski | 66 |
| TE Jimmy Graham | 65 |
| WR Sammy Watkins | 64 |
| WR Pierre Garcon | 63 |
| WR Willie Snead | 63 |
| TE Jordan Reed | 61 |
| RB Lamar Miller | 60 |
| WR Davante Adams | 60 |
| WR Terrelle Pryor | 58 |
Once we’ve settle on a top 48 and their relative values, we can then go in and look at who we might pick, given each of the 12 different draft positions.
With David Johnson, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown being available, the first three draft positions project to be the most valuable. The first draft slot projects to be worth about 95 more points than the worst choice.
| VALUE OF DRAFT POSITIONS | |
|---|---|
| Position | Points |
| Slot 1 | 427 |
| Slot 2 | 418 |
| Slot 3 | 385 |
| Slot 4 | 362 |
| "Average" | 358 |
| Slot 12 | 343 |
| Slot 5 | 343 |
| Slot 6 | 340 |
| Slot 11 | 340 |
| Slot 7 | 339 |
| Slot 10 | 339 |
| Slot 8 | 334 |
| Slot 9 | 332 |
I’m not so much concerned with what happens after the first round, because at that point, the variances in people’s draft boards and strategies tends to become more telling than where they happen to be choosing.
In my own case, I didn’t care much for the first two choices I made (Michael Thomas and T.Y. Hilton). That could have just as easily been Jordy Nelson and Hilton, and I also thought about Jordan Howard with that early second-round pick. But after those ho-hum selections, my next three choices were all players I thought should have been chosen in the late second or early third rounds: Tyreek Hill, Larry Fitzgerald and Mark Ingram.
In the sixth round, I went off script. I felt I needed to square away the running back position (so I didn’t need to reach for one or two of them an upcoming round), so I went with Paul Perkins. I’m hoping he’ll come through and be a top-20 back.
Similarly in the seventh round, the quarterback run is underway, so I figure I’d better take one: Kirk Cousins. I’d like to have two capable arms, so I’ll probably add a second quarterback at 9.10 or 10.03. Other choice in that 9-10 area will be best available to add depth – either a WR or RB.
I really like Zach Ertz. In his final nine games of last year he was the most productive tight end in the league – 63 catches for 666 yards and 4 TDs in those games (crushing it in this PPR format, at 7 catches per game). So he’s the guy I just picked at 8.03.
In the chart above, I have the players I chose tagged with black dots. So despite the lesser draft position, I’m making up ground – I’ve got 6 of my top 36 players (when in theory I should have only three). So while I would have preferred to have one of those big pieces early – Johnson, Bell, Brown – this is the game we play, and I’m working to overcome and put together a playoff team.
If you want to follow along with this draft, it can be tracked at click here.
—Ian Allan