Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What do trades mean for the values of Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews? Antonio Brown's all-time receiving numbers. Where's the love for Rob Gronkowski? And players who'll also return kicks.
Question 1
In a standard scored fantasy football league, C.J. Anderson or Spencer Ware?
Anuj Agarwal ()
I’ve got Ware a little higher on my board. Watching Kansas City’s first preseason game, it seemed to me that Kareem Hunt isn’t particularly close to being ready to play a big role. Ware should be their guy, and he’s a more productive pass catcher than Anderson.
Question 2
How does the Sammy Watkins and Jordan Mathews trades impact the values of the teams they were dealt to?
Benjamin MacLeod (Concord, NH)
I’m not excited about either one of them. Watkins is an elite receiver – one of the top dozen in the league when he’s on his game – but I don’t know that Jared Goff can get him the ball effectively. Tyrod Taylor throws a really good deep ball, and if Goff can do that, he hasn’t shown it yet. I don’t think Watkins has much of a chance of being a top-35 receiver. With Matthews, I don’t think he’s that good. The Eagles, after all, have been quietly calling around for months, trying to get rid of him. I’m not sure if he would have even been their third receiver. Probably will be Buffalo’s lead receiver, I guess, which is worth something.
Question 3
In the magazine you posted the stats for Antonio Brown over the last 4 years. Pretty impressive numbers. That got me to wondering how that ranks all time with WRs for PPR over a 4-year period.
Bill Mason (Huntersville, NC)
What Brown has done over the last four years comes in just a hair behind the best four years of Jerry Rice’s career (1993-1996). The way I have the numbers set up in my files, it’s easy to look at three-year chunks. Below are the 40 best seasons of the last 30 years. Rice dominates, with 9 of the top 40 performances. Marvin Harrison has four, and four other wide receivers show up in the top 40 three times – Brown, Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Calvin Johnson. This is without making any effort to adjust the numbers to account for the reality that passing production keeps going up and up.
| THREE-YEAR WIDE RECEIVER CHUNKS OF THE LAST 30 YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Player | Rec | Yards | TD | Points |
| 1993-1995 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 332 | 4,850 | 48 | 1,113.0 |
| 2013-2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 375 | 5,031 | 34 | 1,092.1 |
| 2014-2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 371 | 4,816 | 37 | 1,084.6 |
| 2000-2002 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 354 | 4,659 | 40 | 1,061.9 |
| 1994-1996 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 342 | 4,601 | 41 | 1,056.1 |
| 1999-2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 326 | 4,600 | 41 | 1,034.0 |
| 2001-2003 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 346 | 4,518 | 36 | 1,015.8 |
| 2011-2013 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 302 | 5,137 | 33 | 1,013.7 |
| 2010-2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 295 | 4,765 | 33 | 971.5 |
| 1992-1994 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 294 | 4,203 | 42 | 968.3 |
| 2000-2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 290 | 4,163 | 43 | 966.3 |
| 2012-2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 297 | 4,483 | 35 | 957.3 |
| 2002-2004 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 323 | 4,107 | 36 | 951.7 |
| 1992-1994 | Sterling Sharpe, G.B. | 314 | 3,854 | 42 | 951.4 |
| 1995-1997 | Herman Moore, Det. | 333 | 4,275 | 31 | 950.5 |
| 1989-1991 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 262 | 4,191 | 44 | 945.1 |
| 2003-2005 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 313 | 4,399 | 31 | 938.9 |
| 2014-2016 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 323 | 4,873 | 21 | 936.3 |
| 2013-2015 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 308 | 4,353 | 31 | 931.3 |
| 2001-2003 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 299 | 4,212 | 34 | 928.2 |
| 1994-1996 | Cris Carter, Minn. | 340 | 3,790 | 34 | 927.0 |
| 1994-1996 | Herman Moore, Det. | 301 | 4,155 | 34 | 922.5 |
| 1998-2000 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 225 | 4,163 | 44 | 916.3 |
| 2012-2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 273 | 3,935 | 41 | 914.5 |
| 1995-1997 | Cris Carter, Minn. | 307 | 3,603 | 40 | 913.3 |
| 2007-2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 250 | 3,765 | 47 | 910.5 |
| 2014-2016 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 288 | 4,122 | 35 | 910.2 |
| 1988-1990 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 246 | 4,291 | 39 | 909.1 |
| 1993-1995 | Cris Carter, Minn. | 330 | 3,698 | 33 | 901.8 |
| 1991-1993 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 262 | 3,910 | 41 | 899.0 |
| 1986-1988 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 215 | 3,954 | 48 | 898.4 |
| 2007-2009 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 293 | 3,932 | 35 | 896.2 |
| 2002-2004 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 302 | 4,370 | 26 | 895.0 |
| 1987-1989 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 211 | 3,867 | 49 | 891.7 |
| 2008-2010 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 302 | 4,360 | 25 | 890.0 |
| 2001-2003 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 273 | 3,814 | 39 | 888.4 |
| 1990-1992 | • Jerry Rice, S.F. | 264 | 3,909 | 38 | 882.9 |
| 2012-2014 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 277 | 4,533 | 25 | 880.3 |
| 2011-2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 299 | 4,017 | 29 | 878.7 |
| 2012-2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 305 | 3,984 | 28 | 877.4 |
Question 4
Just received your 8/11 cheat sheet and was stunned that both Gronk and Kelce were left off your top 35 in favor of Graham, Olsen and Ertz. What’s your thinking here?
MICHAEL BERMAN (North Potomac, MD)
There are three really good tight ends where I’m concerned about their ability to stay on the field: Gronkowski, Eifert and Reed. Tough to count on those guys playing more than 14 games, and that must be factored in. Kelce has sitting out with a knee injury, hasn’t been a great scorer, and they might get better play out of their starting wide receivers (Hill and Conley). That was a consideration. And will there be quarterback issues there, with Alex Smith looking over his shoulder and the team probably working in Pat Mahomes at some point. Olsen hasn’t missed a game in about 10 years, and Graham seems to be in much better shape this year – a contract-year guy. Among the top-level tight ends, I mind myself liking Ertz. I think he’ll come a little cheaper, and he was the most productive tight end in the league in the second half of last season (catching 55 passes in his final eight games).
Question 5
Do you have any projections for return yards for players? I am in a league that rewards players 1 point for every 20 return yards. Please let me know if you have any projections made out.
Chris Clay (Long Beach, CA)
All we can do at this point is look at who teams used last year, who they have listed as their starting returners on their websites, who they are using in the preseason games, and written training camp reports. I have a few ideas to offer. Tyreek Hill is going to be a starting, featured receiver this year, so I think Kansas City will use him sparingly as a returner – probably no kickoffs and just a few punt returns. Tyler Lockett will be a starter-type wide receiver for the Seahawks, and I believe they intend to still use him as both a kickoff and punt returner. Golden Tate will catch a bunch of passes for the Lions, and I think he’ll be their punt returner. Tavon Austin will return punts for the Rams, but I don’t think he’s going to play as much as a wide receiver as in the past. The Steelers continue to list Antonio Brown as their first-team punt returner, but he’s getting a little old (29) to be a double-duty guy; he returned 15 punts last year. Rashard Greene has been a good punt returner in the past (busting a few long ones); I believe he’ll return punts for the Jaguars while also serving as their slot receiver. Darren Sproles will be a third-down type back for the Eagles, and I think he’ll also return punts (an older guy, but he came close to scoring on a couple last year). Similarly, I think Wendell Smallwood will see some time at tailback for Philly, and they’ve got him as their first-team kickoff returner. Chester Rogers looks like he’ll be both a punt returner and a slot receiver for the Colts (but not great at either). I think Jeremy Kerley will be a slot receiver for the 49ers and also return punts (he looked solid in their first preseason game). Andre Roberts will return both kickoffs and punts for the Falcons, but I don’t think he’ll play much as a wide receiver. A couple of rookie defensive backs, I think, will return both kickoffs and punts, and I think they’ll both be good: Jabrill Peppers (Browns) and Adoree Jackson (Titans). I think DeAnthony Thomas will return both for Kansas City.
Question 6
Can you help explain how you determine the auction values? We use a snake draft but I'm trying to use your auction values to help me figure out whether to take a tier 2 WR over a tier 3 RB, for example, in the 3rd round.
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
Decide what zero is at each position. That is, go down the list and settle at each position on the player you’re confident you can get in the later rounds. Maybe at QB, you’re pretty sure you can get Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer in the later rounds. That’s the backup plan if you don’t take a quarterback in the first 12 rounds. That becomes “zero”, and for the other quarterbacks, you look not at their production but at how much better they will be than Dalton and Palmer. You do this at each position, then you can compare everyone on more of an apples to apples basis. You see how much better David Johnson is than your baseline running back (perhaps Matt Forte), and you can look at how much better Antonio Brown should be relative to your late-round wide receivers (perhaps Kenny Stills or Marqise Lee). In the custom rankings area, we’ve already set those baselines at what we feel is the correct area for a typical league. If, when looking at the rankings, you feel a position is overvalued or undervalued, you can go in and tweak those numbers. If you think there are too many quarterbacks in the first three rounds, for example, you can move the baseline up (perhaps moving up from 18 being ‘worth more than the $1.00 minimum’, as it reads in there, to just 15 being more than $1.00 minimum – then you would see all of the quarterbacks in the early rounds moving down).
Question 7
I'm in a 14-team league and have the 13th pick. Would you even consider taking Ezekiel Elliott in the first or second round with either the 13th or the 16th overall pick, considering the amount of teams involved and the scarcity of running backs that will be involved in a league such as this one? Thanks for the advice!
Nick Marrongelle (Orwigsburg, PA)
How many teams are making the playoffs? If just four, then I would lean against Elliott. If six-plus teams are making the postseason, I would be more interested – the name of the game would be to peak in the postseason. We just had our player auction on Monday night. It’s a TD-only league, so not an apples-to-apples comparison, but only four running backs went for more than Elliott.
Question 8
I'm hoping to get Willie Snead with a later pick. Suppose at my second pick Michael Thomas was available, but also some similar WRs. Would it make sense to pass (and take someone comparable) since having him and Snead would put a lot of eggs in one basket?
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)
I wouldn’t think that would be too much of a problem. Thomas is an every week starter. Snead could be more of a part-time option (playing, perhaps, primarily when the Saints were at home in favorable situations). Snead would also be an insurance policy. If Thomas were to get hurt, Snead would then increase in value, being more of a No. 1 guy to fill that void.
Question 9
Would you swap out Watkins for Jamison Crowder? Crowder should be a target monster in the slot and scored 7 times last year with Cousins as his QB. On the other hand, Watkins could score garbage tds since the Rams are offensively challenged.
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I would roll with Crowder. He’s not as good, but he’s in a much better offensive system.
Question 10
I'm in a 8-man standard scored fantasy league. I'm talking a trade with another member of the league. He has offered: Dez Bryant and Spencer Ware for Alshon Jeffery and Demarco Murray.
Anuj Agarwal ()
I’m not a fan of Jeffery or Murray. With Murray, are you even getting Tennessee’s best running back? To me, Ware looks like Kansas City’s featured back right now. Bryant is the best of the four players. I want the Dez-Ware side, and it’s not close.
Question 11
Which defenses do you think will dominate the offenses in their divisions? New England and Seattle look like they could, but does anybody else stick out?
MIKE HERNANDEZ (Yakima, WA)
You need a good defense, and you also need poor offenses. So the Seahawks and Patriots lead the way. New England gets to play six games against the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. The Seahawks get to play four against the Rams and 49ers. Lots of good, shutdown efforts in there, I think. If I had to pick another division with multiple bottom-10 offenses, I would try the AFC South – maybe Andrew Luck can’t stay healthy, and the Jags are there. So perhaps the Texans. If either the Ravens or Bengals fall apart, then there would be a second to go along with the Browns. So perhaps Pittsburgh or Baltimore.
Question 12
I'm in a PPR league with 14 teams, 15 man rosters, 9 starters (1QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 DST, 1 K) using a snake draft. I am picking 10th. I have been offered the following trade on draft picks: I give picks 19, 38, 47 and I get picks 1, 57, and 197. I think this is a good trade for me. What do you think?
Alan Brodecki (Katy, TX)
I don’t have the time to set up the baselines in the exact spots for your league (the exact numbers would be slightly different, given that it’s 14 teams). But in a general sense, I have David Johnson as the clear No. 1 pick in PPR league, worth about 50 more value points than everyone else (and 80-plus points more than the vast majority of other first rounders). So the question becomes whether that gap can be exceeded by picks 19, 38 and 47, versus 57 and 197. It does not, in my opinion. In a rough sense, I think Johnson and the 57th player should be worth about 240 points of value to your team (probably a little more, since you’ll get not the 57th player, but more realistically a top-45 player). That should be about 70 points better than the trifecta of other picks. I’m leaving choice #197 out of the calculation. Maybe you hit on something there, or maybe not. In typical fantasy leagues, there are a bunch of good players who aren’t even selected. It’s possible you’ll end up waiving player #197 and signing somebody who ends up being a top-15 producer at his position. I would accept the trade.
Question 13
Thanks for the great magazine. 0.5 PPR league. I get to keep four players (one must be a rookie from the prior year). You pay the round the player was drafted the prior year to keep the player. D. Henry (Rnd 12), H. Henry (19), Crowell (11), Benjamin (18), Ware (19), Montgomery (19), Rawls (Rnd 19).
John Evans (Rochester, MN)
Maybe something happens in the preseason games to change my mind, but right now I would be looking to protect Hunter Henry, Crowell, Montgomery and Ware. Ware would be the fourth option. Right now I think he looks pretty firm as Kansas City’s starting, featured runner, but let’s have a look at Kareem Hunt in the upcoming practice games.
Question 14
I am in a 10-team keeper league where we can keep one player from the year prior but will lose the draft position said player was taken in in 2016. So here is my conundrum. I have the #1 overall selection in a snake style draft. Should I keep DeMarco Murray and lose a 4th round pick or keep Isaiah Crowell and lose a 6th round pick?
Pete Kelly (Evergreen Park, IL)
I think Crowell will be the better of those two backs. I think he’s good, and Cleveland upgraded its offensive line nicely. With Murray, you’re getting a player who’ll share time with Derrick Henry.
Question 15
I'm in an atypical league. First of all, we only have six teams. But what really makes it unique is the scoring system. Longer scores are worth more points, and if a running back throws or catches a Td, a QB runs or catches, or a WR throws, runs, or returns a kick for a score, points are doubled. Which players are the best double (or triple) threats this year. I've been using your magazine since the very beginning, and have won my share of championships.
Jim Howard ()
That’s all in the custom rankings database. Go in, put in your scoring system, and those adjustments will occur. We’ve got speed/distance grades on every player. Plug in your scoring parameters, and you’ll see receivers like DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Ted Ginn Jr. and Will Fuller appear higher in the rankings.
Question 16
How do we tackle this Zeke Elliott situation? Right now I would lean toward selecting him mid second round. I think you approach it as who can you get for a RB3 to replace him for the suspension. The timing of all this couldn't be worse and I see it having a profound effect on drafts this year. I don't understand why it takes a whole year to investigate and figure things out. Now who knows what scenario plays out. Either Zeke drafters get a great bargain or he is missing for almost half a year. Most analysts right now are saying Goodell won't budge on the six games due to the thorough investigation. I did a draft where I selected Elliot 3rd and have Mixon, Hunt, Kelley, and Bernard for RBs. It think Mixon will be just fine as my RB1 after watching him play in the preseason.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
I think you’re in a good spot. You’ve got Mixon, Hunt and Kelley, which is plenty of firepower at tailback. I think you can get by with those guys, and then Elliott will provide a difference-making dimension when he returns. There must be a discount for Elliott, with him missing about half of the season. But reality is a whole bunch of running backs will either be just mediocre or go down as blown picks. When you start looking at guys like Marshawn Lynch, LeGarrette Blount, Spencer Ware and Robert Kelley, I think the smarter play is to take the player that you know is going to be really good for half a season.
Question 17
I am in a keeper league. Standard scoring, I draft 7th. We can keep 3 players. Who would be your first 3 picks for the new season? Brees, Hyde, S. Ware, A Brown & D Adams.
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
Brown and Brees for sure (not sure why I’m being asked). For the third guy, I would go with Davante Adams today, but we’ll continue to monitor teams in the preseason, perhaps switching to Hyde or Ware.