Stephen Gostkowski is listed at No. 26 overall in our latest TD-only cheat sheet. Should you take him with a third round pick? No, not if you can get him later in your draft.
The TD-only scoring system is a different animal. The point totals are much lower than the other formats. We believe Gostkowski will score 20-30 points more than almost every kicker on the board (in our estimation, only Justin Tucker is in the same area code). And in the TD-only format, that 20-point difference is so large, it (mathematically) justifies using a early pick on Gostkowski.
Gostkowski had an off year last season, granted, but in each of the previous four seasons he scored over 150 points. We are projecting (conservatively, we think) that he will score 145 points this season. Fantasy coaches who punt the position until the last rounds of their drafts are more likely to end up with somebody like Chris Boswell, Caleb Sturgis or Cairo Santos, scoring maybe 125 points.
Now, 20 points might not seem like much. But look at the other positions. You would be excited to use your third-round pick on a quarterback throwing 32 TDs or a wide receiver catching 9 touchdowns. But the reality is there will be plenty of quarterbacks throwing about 25 TDs or wide receivers catching 6 TDs who go in the late rounds or who aren’t even chosen at all. The math is the same. With 4 points for TD passes, the difference between 32 and 25 TD passes is 28 points. The difference between 9 and 6 TD catches is 18 points.
We don't want anyone picking Gostkowski earlier than necessary. If nobody in your league ever drafts a kicker before the 7th round, then don't pick Gostkowski before the 6th. But wait! Are there two Fantasy Index subscribers in your league? In that case, your decision is more complicated. And you also must decide how likely Gostkowski is to not melt down and disappoint. We think he's very solid, but your risk tolerance may be lower.
We can't know how you and your league-mates will process all of this. So we've placed Gostkowski where the math says he belongs (and we agree with the math).