We’re two weeks in. Too early to be panicking or over-reacting, but we also now have a better sense of what teams are all about – they’ve played an eighth of their games. So adjustments of expectations are in order, both on the player and team levels.
The updated individual player projections are on their way. But also makes sense to look at the team expectations.
On these, teams receive no credit for what they’ve done so far. That is, with Kansas City having thrown 5 TDs so far, we’re not trying to guess what they’re closing total for touchdown passes will be (including those 5). Instead, we’re trying to predict how many touchdown passes Kansas City would score if it started a new 16-game season tomorrow.
For overall scoring potency, I’ve got the Patriots, Packers, Raiders and Saints as my top 4. Touchdowns on this chart include only rushing and passing (no bonuses for teams with good defenses or special teams).
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
New England | 36.5 | 18.9 | 55.4 |
Green Bay | 38.4 | 11.7 | 50.1 |
Oakland | 31.2 | 16.8 | 48.0 |
New Orleans | 32.6 | 15.2 | 47.8 |
Atlanta | 32.3 | 14.7 | 47.0 |
Pittsburgh | 33.0 | 13.6 | 46.6 |
Dallas | 25.9 | 18.1 | 44.0 |
Tennessee | 27.2 | 16.8 | 44.0 |
Philadelphia | 28.5 | 12.0 | 40.5 |
LA Chargers | 30.7 | 9.8 | 40.5 |
Seattle | 28.8 | 11.2 | 40.0 |
Washington | 27.2 | 12.0 | 39.2 |
Tampa Bay | 28.5 | 10.1 | 38.6 |
Detroit | 29.6 | 8.8 | 38.4 |
Carolina | 23.2 | 15.2 | 38.4 |
Denver | 24.8 | 13.6 | 38.4 |
Minnesota | 26.1 | 12.0 | 38.1 |
Kansas City | 22.2 | 15.7 | 37.9 |
Miami | 24.2 | 12.5 | 36.6 |
Indianapolis | 26.4 | 8.8 | 35.2 |
Baltimore | 20.8 | 14.2 | 35.0 |
Cincinnati | 21.4 | 13.4 | 34.9 |
Arizona | 25.4 | 8.5 | 33.9 |
NY Giants | 26.4 | 6.4 | 32.8 |
Buffalo | 16.8 | 15.2 | 32.0 |
LA Rams | 20.8 | 11.2 | 32.0 |
Jacksonville | 16.5 | 15.2 | 31.7 |
Chicago | 19.0 | 11.0 | 30.1 |
Houston | 17.6 | 12.0 | 29.6 |
San Francisco | 20.0 | 9.6 | 29.6 |
Cleveland | 17.3 | 10.6 | 27.8 |
NY Jets | 17.0 | 9.1 | 26.1 |
For passing production, I’ve got the Packers, Patriots, Saints and Steelers as my top 4. This is using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Green Bay | 300 | 2.40 | 44.4 |
New England | 305 | 2.28 | 44.2 |
New Orleans | 310 | 2.04 | 43.2 |
Pittsburgh | 295 | 2.06 | 41.9 |
Atlanta | 285 | 2.02 | 40.6 |
LA Chargers | 280 | 1.92 | 39.5 |
Detroit | 270 | 1.85 | 38.1 |
Oakland | 260 | 1.95 | 37.7 |
Washington | 275 | 1.70 | 37.7 |
Philadelphia | 270 | 1.78 | 37.7 |
Tampa Bay | 262 | 1.78 | 36.9 |
Arizona | 270 | 1.59 | 36.5 |
Indianapolis | 265 | 1.65 | 36.4 |
Seattle | 255 | 1.80 | 36.3 |
Minnesota | 265 | 1.63 | 36.3 |
NY Giants | 250 | 1.65 | 34.9 |
Dallas | 250 | 1.62 | 34.7 |
Tennessee | 245 | 1.70 | 34.7 |
Denver | 240 | 1.55 | 33.3 |
Miami | 242 | 1.51 | 33.3 |
Cincinnati | 250 | 1.34 | 33.0 |
Kansas City | 247 | 1.39 | 33.0 |
Carolina | 235 | 1.45 | 32.2 |
LA Rams | 235 | 1.30 | 31.3 |
Baltimore | 225 | 1.30 | 30.3 |
San Francisco | 225 | 1.25 | 30.0 |
Chicago | 225 | 1.19 | 29.6 |
Cleveland | 220 | 1.08 | 28.5 |
Houston | 210 | 1.10 | 27.6 |
NY Jets | 205 | 1.06 | 26.9 |
Buffalo | 205 | 1.05 | 26.8 |
Jacksonville | 205 | 1.03 | 26.7 |
For rushing, I’ve got Dallas, Tennessee, New England and Oakland at the top.
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Dallas | 140 | 1.13 | 20.8 |
Tennessee | 132 | 1.05 | 19.5 |
New England | 120 | 1.18 | 19.1 |
Oakland | 125 | 1.05 | 18.8 |
Buffalo | 125 | .95 | 18.2 |
Carolina | 122 | .95 | 17.9 |
Kansas City | 118 | .98 | 17.7 |
Denver | 125 | .85 | 17.6 |
Jacksonville | 115 | .95 | 17.2 |
Baltimore | 117 | .89 | 17.0 |
Houston | 125 | .75 | 17.0 |
Atlanta | 110 | .92 | 16.5 |
New Orleans | 104 | .95 | 16.1 |
Cincinnati | 110 | .84 | 16.0 |
Pittsburgh | 105 | .85 | 15.6 |
Miami | 108 | .78 | 15.5 |
Seattle | 110 | .70 | 15.2 |
Chicago | 110 | .69 | 15.1 |
Washington | 105 | .75 | 15.0 |
Cleveland | 110 | .66 | 15.0 |
Tampa Bay | 108 | .63 | 14.6 |
Minnesota | 100 | .75 | 14.5 |
Green Bay | 100 | .73 | 14.4 |
NY Jets | 107 | .57 | 14.1 |
San Francisco | 105 | .60 | 14.1 |
Philadelphia | 95 | .75 | 14.0 |
LA Rams | 95 | .70 | 13.7 |
LA Chargers | 93 | .61 | 13.0 |
Detroit | 95 | .55 | 12.8 |
Indianapolis | 90 | .55 | 12.3 |
Arizona | 86 | .53 | 11.8 |
NY Giants | 85 | .40 | 10.9 |
—Ian Allan