Kareem Hunt had a monster game in his debut, putting him on track to be one of the better third-round running back rookies this century. The question that arises after watching D'Onta Foreman get a healthy share of the carries behind Lamar Miller in Houston's win last night is whether Foreman is a candidate to also be fantasy-relevant this year.
Lamar Miller is definitely the starter, but the Dolphins knew and the Texans might be figuring out that they need to be careful not to overwork him. He might be most successful with fewer touches, and that's where Foreman comes in. He looked pretty good last night; like he'll maybe be starting in Houston a year or two down the road -- if not sooner.
Unlike Hunt, most likely Foreman will remain a backup this season. Few third-rounders do put up difference-making numbers. The best of them since 2000, ironically enough, was another Texans third-rounder -- Steve Slaton.
This century, there have been 46 other running backs selected in the third round. Only four of them have ranked in the top 25 at their position in their rookie seasons, so about 9 percent. Only 17 (a little over 1 in 3) have made it into the top 50.
THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Rk |
2008 | 89 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1282 | 377 | 1659 | 10 | 6 |
2015 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 457 | 1038 | 13 | 7 |
2008 | 64 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 1262 | 8 | 18 |
2014 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 | 25 |
2000 | 63 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 512 | 191 | 703 | 8 | 28 |
2011 | 71 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 1080 | 2 | 30 |
2001 | 80 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 512 | 247 | 759 | 5 | 30 |
2014 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | 673 | 64 | 737 | 5 | 33 |
2015 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 490 | 304 | 794 | 4 | 37 |
2015 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 | 38 |
2005 | 65 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 608 | 131 | 739 | 3 | 38 |
2000 | 76 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | 406 | 126 | 532 | 3 | 41 |
2006 | 79 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 633 | 102 | 735 | 2 | 43 |
2002 | 84 | Lamar Gordon, St.L. | 228 | 278 | 506 | 3 | 47 |
2001 | 85 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 281 | 263 | 544 | 4 | 47 |
2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 538 | 135 | 673 | 0 | 49 |
2001 | 65 | James Jackson, Clev. | 554 | 56 | 610 | 2 | 50 |
2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 532 | 47 | 579 | 1 | 51 |
2013 | 96 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 242 | 75 | 317 | 5 | 55 |
2009 | 65 | Shonn Greene, NYJ | 540 | 0 | 540 | 2 | 56 |
2008 | 73 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 357 | 272 | 629 | 1 | 57 |
2005 | 77 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 278 | 7 | 285 | 3 | 63 |
2012 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 330 | 62 | 392 | 1 | 65 |
2011 | 73 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 441 | 13 | 454 | 1 | 66 |
2016 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 172 | 208 | 380 | 1 | 67 |
2002 | 91 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 193 | 86 | 279 | 0 | 67 |
2016 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 179 | 46 | 225 | 2 | 70 |
2005 | 73 | Vernand Morency, Hou. | 184 | 87 | 271 | 2 | 71 |
2015 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 392 | 14 | 406 | 1 | 75 |
2014 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 185 | 190 | 375 | 1 | 75 |
2009 | 74 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | 226 | 76 | 302 | 1 | 77 |
2008 | 69 | Jacob Hester, S.D. | 95 | 91 | 186 | 2 | 79 |
2003 | 93 | Chris Brown, Tenn. | 221 | 61 | 282 | 0 | 81 |
2007 | 93 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | 85 | 117 | 202 | 0 | 91 |
2003 | 96 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 203 | 2 | 205 | 0 | 93 |
2014 | 97 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 40 | 23 | 63 | 0 | 99+ |
2011 | 96 | Alex Green, G.B. | 11 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 99+ |
2007 | 71 | Lorenzo Booker, Mia. | 125 | 0 | 125 | 0 | 99+ |
2007 | 90 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | 16 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 99+ |
2006 | 74 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | 19 | 20 | 39 | 0 | 99+ |
2005 | 101 | Maurice Clarett, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99+ |
2003 | 77 | Musa Smith, Balt. | 31 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 99+ |
2003 | 85 | B.J. Askew, NYJ | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 99+ |
2001 | 82 | Heath Evans, Sea. | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 99+ |
2000 | 81 | Rueben Droughns, Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99+ |
2000 | 88 | Doug Chapman, Minn. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99+ |
2017 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2017 | 86 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2017 | 89 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2017 | 105 | James Conner, Pitt. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
So the odds aren't great, but considering situations, 2017's rookies have a lot of potential. Hunt is on his way, and 2017's other third-rounders are just an injury away from starting or at least being part of a committee.
--Andy Richardson