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Factoid

Rookie QBs are running wild

Watson, Kizer using legs to amass intriguing numbers

With rookie quarterbacks, you typically want to look at guys who can run. It’s early, but Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer definitely pass that test. After three weeks, both are averaging better fantasy numbers than Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson did in their rookie seasons.

Say what?

Part of that can be attributed to statistical inflation. The game has changed. But Watson and Kizer have put up viable fantasy stats.

Key is rushing production. In typical fantasy leagues, quarterbacks get 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 for each rushing touchdown, making those stats more valuable than the passing numbers that more typically are talked about.

It’s early, and both of these quarterbacks will no doubt struggle in many games. But both can definitely run. Watson has run for 108 yards and a touchdown in the two games he’s started (he also ran for 2 TDs in the preseason). Kizer is averaging 29 rushing yards, with 2 TDs in three games.

Since 2000, 40 rookie quarterbacks have started at least half of the season. Only two of those quarterbacks averaged more fantasy points (per game) in their first season than what Watson has done in his first two starts. Only three others outperformed Kizer.

Best rookie numbers tend to come when quarterback is not only passing but also running. On the chart below, the top 10 running quarterbacks (standard scoring) have a black dot by their name.

Players are in order of fantasy points per game. The final column (“rank”) shows where the quarterbacks placed in that year relative to all other quarterbacks starting at least half of the season.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2000
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2011• Cam Newton, Car.16253.21.3144.1.8827.84
2012• Robert Griffin III, Wash.15213.31.3354.3.4724.25
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.2213.01.0054.0.5023.1---
2012• Andrew Luck, Ind.16273.41.4415.9.3122.910
2015• Marcus Mariota, Tenn.12234.81.5821.0.2522.216
2015• Jameis Winston, T.B.16252.61.3813.1.3821.817
2017DeShone Kizer, Clev.3215.31.0029.0.6721.7---
2016• Dak Prescott, Dall.16229.21.4417.6.3821.217
2012• Russell Wilson, Sea.16194.91.6330.6.2520.812
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10226.71.3010.8.2019.014
2006• Vince Young, Tenn.13158.9.8540.6.5418.89
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.12230.81.1715.2.0818.621
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.16236.41.009.4.1317.827
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.10197.21.1018.6.2017.725
2013• Geno Smith, NYJ16190.4.7522.9.3817.127
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.16212.41.259.5.0616.921
2006Matt Leinart, Ariz.11226.61.005.1.1816.914
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.9204.31.1117.3.0016.823
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.16219.51.133.9.0616.224
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.13206.5.6929.9.0016.227
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.13200.61.462.8.0016.231
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.10175.41.3021.1.0016.124
2014Derek Carr, Oak.16204.41.315.8.0016.028
2001• Chris Weinke, Car.15195.4.738.5.4016.019
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.16215.01.006.5.0615.921
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.13207.3.928.3.1515.820
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.15225.7.937.4.0015.827
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16205.9.7513.2.1315.628
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.13188.11.1511.1.0815.624
2010Colt McCoy, Clev.8197.0.7517.0.1315.327
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.16185.7.8811.3.1314.826
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ15162.9.807.1.2013.528
2002David Carr, Hou.16162.0.5617.6.1913.528
2002Joey Harrington, Det.12186.81.00.3.0013.429
2006Bruce Gradkowski, T.B.11149.2.8214.6.0012.232
2007Trent Edwards, Buff.9170.3.785.4.0012.229
2016Cody Kessler, Clev.8171.1.752.3.0012.031
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14154.4.866.9.0011.833
2001Quincy Carter, Dall.8134.0.6318.8.1311.830
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.9138.9.786.9.0011.631
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.10149.9.305.7.009.332
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.15124.6.602.9.008.932

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index