Offenses change. Guys get hurt, benched and suspended. Others outperform expectations. So projections must be constantly re-worked during the course of the season. Here’s how I see the 32 teams now.
On the numbers below, you’re not seeing what the teams have done in the first four weeks. Instead, you’re seeing what I expect they’ll do for the remainder of the season.
Starting with touchdowns (passing and rushing). If we were to start a new 16-game season today, I believe the Patriots, Packers, Steelers and Saints would put the ball in the end zone the most. I’ve got the Browns, Jets, 49ers, Ravens and Cardinals down at the bottom.
I might be late to the party, but I’m coming around on the Rams.
OFFENSES: PROJECTED TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
New England | 37.3 | 17.3 | 54.6 |
Green Bay | 39.4 | 12.0 | 51.4 |
Pittsburgh | 32.2 | 14.6 | 46.7 |
New Orleans | 32.6 | 13.9 | 46.6 |
Atlanta | 28.0 | 17.9 | 45.9 |
Oakland | 29.8 | 15.0 | 44.8 |
Tennessee | 25.8 | 17.1 | 42.9 |
Dallas | 27.8 | 15.0 | 42.9 |
Seattle | 30.6 | 11.2 | 41.8 |
Washington | 29.3 | 11.7 | 41.0 |
Philadelphia | 25.8 | 14.4 | 40.2 |
LA Rams | 24.5 | 15.7 | 40.2 |
Kansas City | 21.6 | 17.6 | 39.2 |
Tampa Bay | 29.0 | 9.6 | 38.6 |
Minnesota | 28.0 | 10.2 | 38.2 |
Houston | 21.8 | 16.3 | 38.1 |
Denver | 24.5 | 13.4 | 37.9 |
Indianapolis | 27.2 | 10.4 | 37.6 |
Carolina | 21.9 | 15.0 | 37.0 |
LA Chargers | 27.5 | 9.3 | 36.8 |
Cincinnati | 24.5 | 11.7 | 36.2 |
Detroit | 27.5 | 7.5 | 35.0 |
NY Giants | 28.2 | 6.7 | 34.9 |
Chicago | 17.9 | 15.0 | 33.0 |
Buffalo | 18.4 | 14.4 | 32.8 |
Jacksonville | 16.8 | 15.7 | 32.5 |
Miami | 22.1 | 10.2 | 32.3 |
Arizona | 24.8 | 6.4 | 31.2 |
Baltimore | 18.1 | 13.0 | 31.0 |
San Francisco | 19.4 | 10.9 | 30.2 |
NY Jets | 17.1 | 12.0 | 29.1 |
Cleveland | 16.6 | 11.0 | 27.7 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Titans, Texans and Kansas City at the top. At the bottom, four teams that just can’t seem to run it worth a hoot: Arizona, Giants, Chargers and Browns.
Philadelphia has been moving up, with a much stronger commitment to the run in the last two weeks.
I have been souring on the Cowboys, who just can’t seem to get Ezekiel Elliott going like he ran last year.
PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Tennessee | 140 | 1.07 | 20.4 |
Houston | 140 | 1.02 | 20.1 |
Kansas City | 135 | 1.10 | 20.1 |
Jacksonville | 135 | .98 | 19.4 |
Atlanta | 125 | 1.12 | 19.2 |
Denver | 134 | .84 | 18.4 |
Philadelphia | 130 | .90 | 18.4 |
Chicago | 123 | .94 | 17.9 |
Carolina | 122 | .94 | 17.8 |
Dallas | 120 | .94 | 17.6 |
New England | 110 | 1.08 | 17.5 |
LA Rams | 115 | .98 | 17.4 |
Baltimore | 125 | .81 | 17.4 |
Buffalo | 115 | .90 | 16.9 |
Oakland | 110 | .94 | 16.6 |
Pittsburgh | 110 | .91 | 16.5 |
NY Jets | 115 | .75 | 16.0 |
New Orleans | 105 | .87 | 15.7 |
Seattle | 114 | .70 | 15.6 |
Washington | 110 | .73 | 15.4 |
Cincinnati | 108 | .73 | 15.2 |
San Francisco | 108 | .68 | 14.9 |
Tampa Bay | 105 | .60 | 14.1 |
Green Bay | 95 | .75 | 14.0 |
Indianapolis | 95 | .65 | 13.4 |
Miami | 95 | .64 | 13.3 |
Minnesota | 85 | .64 | 12.3 |
Detroit | 95 | .47 | 12.3 |
Cleveland | 80 | .69 | 12.1 |
LA Chargers | 74 | .58 | 10.9 |
NY Giants | 75 | .42 | 10.0 |
Arizona | 68 | .40 | 9.2 |
For passing, I’ve got the same four teams that I think have the best overall offenses: Patriots, Packers, Saints and Steelers. Seahawks are still fine-tuning things, but I’ve got them at No. 5.
Plenty of ineffective teams at the bottom to pick from, including the Jaguars, Bills, Jets and Ravens.
PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
New England | 310 | 2.33 | 45.0 |
Green Bay | 295 | 2.46 | 44.3 |
New Orleans | 295 | 2.04 | 41.7 |
Pittsburgh | 275 | 2.01 | 39.6 |
Seattle | 270 | 1.91 | 38.5 |
Atlanta | 277 | 1.75 | 38.2 |
Washington | 270 | 1.83 | 38.0 |
Tampa Bay | 270 | 1.81 | 37.9 |
LA Chargers | 275 | 1.72 | 37.8 |
NY Giants | 270 | 1.76 | 37.6 |
Minnesota | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
Oakland | 260 | 1.86 | 37.2 |
Arizona | 277 | 1.55 | 37.0 |
Indianapolis | 265 | 1.70 | 36.7 |
Detroit | 255 | 1.72 | 35.8 |
LA Rams | 260 | 1.53 | 35.2 |
Dallas | 245 | 1.74 | 34.9 |
Philadelphia | 245 | 1.61 | 34.2 |
Cincinnati | 245 | 1.53 | 33.7 |
Tennessee | 230 | 1.61 | 32.7 |
Denver | 232 | 1.53 | 32.4 |
Kansas City | 240 | 1.35 | 32.1 |
Carolina | 235 | 1.37 | 31.7 |
Miami | 232 | 1.38 | 31.5 |
Houston | 230 | 1.36 | 31.2 |
San Francisco | 220 | 1.21 | 29.3 |
Cleveland | 225 | 1.04 | 28.7 |
Chicago | 218 | 1.12 | 28.5 |
Baltimore | 215 | 1.13 | 28.3 |
NY Jets | 215 | 1.07 | 27.9 |
Buffalo | 205 | 1.15 | 27.4 |
Jacksonville | 185 | 1.05 | 24.8 |
As usual with this kind of thing, let me know where you think I’m going wrong.
—Ian Allan