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Revised offensive projections

Packers, Patriots, Steelers look like top offenses

Offenses change. Guys get hurt, benched and suspended. Others outperform expectations. So projections must be constantly re-worked during the course of the season. Here’s how I see the 32 teams now.

On the numbers below, you’re not seeing what the teams have done in the first four weeks. Instead, you’re seeing what I expect they’ll do for the remainder of the season.

Starting with touchdowns (passing and rushing). If we were to start a new 16-game season today, I believe the Patriots, Packers, Steelers and Saints would put the ball in the end zone the most. I’ve got the Browns, Jets, 49ers, Ravens and Cardinals down at the bottom.

I might be late to the party, but I’m coming around on the Rams.

OFFENSES: PROJECTED TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
New England37.317.354.6
Green Bay39.412.051.4
Pittsburgh32.214.646.7
New Orleans32.613.946.6
Atlanta28.017.945.9
Oakland29.815.044.8
Tennessee25.817.142.9
Dallas27.815.042.9
Seattle30.611.241.8
Washington29.311.741.0
Philadelphia25.814.440.2
LA Rams24.515.740.2
Kansas City21.617.639.2
Tampa Bay29.09.638.6
Minnesota28.010.238.2
Houston21.816.338.1
Denver24.513.437.9
Indianapolis27.210.437.6
Carolina21.915.037.0
LA Chargers27.59.336.8
Cincinnati24.511.736.2
Detroit27.57.535.0
NY Giants28.26.734.9
Chicago17.915.033.0
Buffalo18.414.432.8
Jacksonville16.815.732.5
Miami22.110.232.3
Arizona24.86.431.2
Baltimore18.113.031.0
San Francisco19.410.930.2
NY Jets17.112.029.1
Cleveland16.611.027.7

For rushing production, I’ve got the Titans, Texans and Kansas City at the top. At the bottom, four teams that just can’t seem to run it worth a hoot: Arizona, Giants, Chargers and Browns.

Philadelphia has been moving up, with a much stronger commitment to the run in the last two weeks.

I have been souring on the Cowboys, who just can’t seem to get Ezekiel Elliott going like he ran last year.

PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Tennessee1401.0720.4
Houston1401.0220.1
Kansas City1351.1020.1
Jacksonville135.9819.4
Atlanta1251.1219.2
Denver134.8418.4
Philadelphia130.9018.4
Chicago123.9417.9
Carolina122.9417.8
Dallas120.9417.6
New England1101.0817.5
LA Rams115.9817.4
Baltimore125.8117.4
Buffalo115.9016.9
Oakland110.9416.6
Pittsburgh110.9116.5
NY Jets115.7516.0
New Orleans105.8715.7
Seattle114.7015.6
Washington110.7315.4
Cincinnati108.7315.2
San Francisco108.6814.9
Tampa Bay105.6014.1
Green Bay95.7514.0
Indianapolis95.6513.4
Miami95.6413.3
Minnesota85.6412.3
Detroit95.4712.3
Cleveland80.6912.1
LA Chargers74.5810.9
NY Giants75.4210.0
Arizona68.409.2

For passing, I’ve got the same four teams that I think have the best overall offenses: Patriots, Packers, Saints and Steelers. Seahawks are still fine-tuning things, but I’ve got them at No. 5.

Plenty of ineffective teams at the bottom to pick from, including the Jaguars, Bills, Jets and Ravens.

PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPPoints
New England3102.3345.0
Green Bay2952.4644.3
New Orleans2952.0441.7
Pittsburgh2752.0139.6
Seattle2701.9138.5
Atlanta2771.7538.2
Washington2701.8338.0
Tampa Bay2701.8137.9
LA Chargers2751.7237.8
NY Giants2701.7637.6
Minnesota2701.7537.5
Oakland2601.8637.2
Arizona2771.5537.0
Indianapolis2651.7036.7
Detroit2551.7235.8
LA Rams2601.5335.2
Dallas2451.7434.9
Philadelphia2451.6134.2
Cincinnati2451.5333.7
Tennessee2301.6132.7
Denver2321.5332.4
Kansas City2401.3532.1
Carolina2351.3731.7
Miami2321.3831.5
Houston2301.3631.2
San Francisco2201.2129.3
Cleveland2251.0428.7
Chicago2181.1228.5
Baltimore2151.1328.3
NY Jets2151.0727.9
Buffalo2051.1527.4
Jacksonville1851.0524.8

As usual with this kind of thing, let me know where you think I’m going wrong.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index