Mitchell Trubisky is starting his first game as a pro tonight. Does that mean we should all be using Minnesota’s defense? With Trubisky being inexperienced, does that mean he’s extra likely to fork over a bunch of sacks and turnovers? Not necessarily.
Trubisky didn’t look particularly prone to errors in the preseason. He attempted 53 passes, taking only 3 sacks, with no interceptions and no lost fumbles (he fumbled once, but it wasn’t recovered by the defense).
And I’ve looked at the historical numbers, and I don’t see a great outpouring of quarterback errors in these kind of games.
In the last 10 years, 24 other quarterbacks selected in the first round have started games in their first year. They’ve taken only 48 sacks (and average of 2 per game, which is lower than the league average). They’ve thrown 29 interceptions, which is below average but not a gold mine. And I am surprised to see that of those 24 quarterbacks only one of them lost a fumble in his first game (Andrew Luck). There have been 15 other fumbles by these quarterbacks, but none that were recovered by opponents.
Production hasn’t been great for these guys either. On average, these quarterbacks averaged 212 passing and 20 rushing yards in those 24 games, with 27 TD passes and 6 TD runs. They’ve got a combined win-loss record of 9-15.
I’m not saying don’t start the Vikings. That tends to be a top-5 defense anyway. But I would like this matchup for them a lot more if the game where being played in Minnesota.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS STARTING THEIR FIRST GAME | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | Pass | TD | Int | FL | Sac |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | Det. | W 34-21 | 161 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | Cin. | W 17-10 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | N.O. | L 27-45 | 205 | 0 | 3 | 0-0 | 1 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | at Hou. | W 24-7 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 0 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman | G.B. | W 38-28 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 1-0 | 1 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | Ariz. | L 13-17 | 253 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 2 |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow | at Oak. | L 23-39 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | at Ariz. | L 21-28 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 4 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert | at Car. | L 10-16 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 3-0 | 2 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder | G.B. | L 27-33 | 219 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | at Chi. | L 21-41 | 309 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 3 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | at N.O. | W 40-32 | 320 | 2 | 0 | 1-0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill | at Hou. | L 10-30 | 219 | 0 | 3 | 1-0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden | Phil. | L 16-17 | 118 | 0 | 4 | 2-0 | 2 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel | N.E. | L 21-23 | 150 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | at S.D. | L 14-33 | 254 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 3 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel | Cin. | L 0-30 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 3 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | Atl. | W 41-28 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | Tenn. | L 14-42 | 210 | 2 | 2 | 2-0 | 4 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | at T.B. | W 42-14 | 209 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | Mia. | L 10-14 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz | Clev. | W 29-10 | 278 | 2 | 0 | 2-0 | 2 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch | Atl. | L 16-23 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 2-0 | 6 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson | at Cin. | W 13-9 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 3 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky | Minn. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan