Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it time to pull the plug on Martellus Bennett? Why are Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara ranked so high on the redrafter? When do we give up on Amari Cooper? And will David Johnson help win fantasy football championships?
Question 1
I am wondering if Martellus Bennett is a personal friend of yours, or perhaps he saved someone's life at Fantasy Index? This must be the case, as he has demonstrated nothing this season, never scoring a touchdown this season ... yet he is consistently ranked in your top 6 in the Redrafter and in your weekly rankings. What gives? Bennett is the 32nd TE in my league so far in regards to points.
David Krug (Overland Park, KS)
Agreed. He’s been a disappointment, and it’s frustrating to be holding an underperforming player. But the Packers have a really good passing game, with Aaron Rodgers right now on pace to throw 42 touchdown passes. And we know that Bennett is a good player; he’s done it in the past. So I think the correct course is to hold onto him and ride out the storm. If you assign too much weight to short-term results, you can end up making a lot of regrettable decisions. Jimmy Graham, for example, caught 4 passes for 9 yards in his first two games. So you could have logically tossed him on the scrap heap with Bennett. But Graham has now caught 17 passes and a touchdown in his last three games. So I haven’t given up on Bennett just yet. But I will admit that the turnaround needs to occur pretty quickly. He was also, recall, a disappointment last year in New England, with just 3 TDs in 10 games after Rob Gronkowski suffered a chest injury in a Sunday night game against Seattle. So in his last 15 games (all with two of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game) Bennett’s teams have gone 14-1, but he’s caught only 48 passes for 489 yards and 3 TDs in those games – averaging 3 catches and 32 yards.
| MARTELLUS BENNETT: LAST 16 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Score | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2016 | at S.F. | W 30-17 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 2016 | at NYJ | W 22-17 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| 2016 | Rams | W 26-10 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 2016 | Balt. | W 30-23 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| 2016 | at Den. | W 16-3 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| 2016 | NYJ | W 41-3 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| 2016 | at Mia. | W 35-14 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| 2016 | Hou. | W 34-16 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 2016 | Pitt. | W 36-17 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| 2016 | v. Atl. | W 34-28 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| 2017 | Sea. | W 17-9 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| 2017 | at Atl. | L 23-34 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| 2017 | Cin. | W 27-24 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 2017 | Chi. | W 35-14 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| 2017 | at Dall. | W 35-31 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
Question 2
What trade value would put on David Johnson? I am 4-0 in two leagues and willing to take a risk to have him for playoffs. Would Buck Allen, Cohen, or Kamara be too much?
Eric Booser (Bethlehem, PA)
Bruce Arians was on a radio show Wednesday. He says the earliest Johnson might return would be after Thanksgiving. If his broken wrist is healed at that time, that might put him on the field for the final six games. Earlier on the same day, Johnson says that rehab is going fine, but that there’s no firm timeline for his return. Sounds like there’s a decent chance Johnson will play in 4-6 games. I have concerns, however, that the Cardinals might be pretty much out of it by that time. They’re 2-3 now, with one of the league’s worst offensive lines and an immobile 36-year-old quarterback who’s right at the end of the road. If they’re 4-8 when he’s ready to return, but they even bring him back? What would be the point? And as poorly as that offensive line is playing, is he even capable of being a top-10 back anyway? He carried 11 times for only 23 yards in Week 1 against the Lions. Johnson’s strongest asset is as one of the league’s very best pass-catching running backs. In a general sense, I would think he would be selected somewhere between 20th and 30th among running backs if we were walking into a draft today.
Question 3
Question concerning Todd Gurley's goal line fumble. My buddy in a league tied in his game against our commissioner. However, the commissioner had the Seattle D, and sent my buddy an email saying that our scoring system (CBS Sports) doesn't recognize the Gurley fumble as a fumble recovery. Therefore, he would be awarding himself 2 additional points (and consequently the game). My buddy also had the Giants defense, who scored a safety on a fumble out of the opposite end zone. My buddy emailed back that they were the same situation: no one recovered the fumbles in either case, yet both fumbles resulted in a turnover, or giving possession to the opposing team. So either they should each get 2 points, or each get 0.
Tyson Traveller (McKinney, TX)
The plays aren’t the same. Two different things. In the case of the Rams, Earl Thomas cleverly chopped Gurley’s arm as he was trying to extend the ball over the goal line, creating a fumble. Ball goes out of bounds over the pylon. By rule, Seattle gets the ball at its own 20. That’s a fumble and recovery. In typical fantasy football leagues, people owning the Seahawks would receive points for a fumble recovery. Such plays happen all the time and shouldn’t need any manual override by the commissioner. (They also need not involve a defensive player creating the fumble – if Gurley simply fumbled it into the end zone on his own, Seattle would also get a fumble recovery.) You should check to make sure that the commissioner didn’t accidentally give himself double credit for that fumble recover – it’s a very standard NFL player that should have been handled properly by CBS Sports. Note that if the ball had gone out of bounds elsewhere in the field – at the 1- or 2-yard line, perhaps – then Seattle would not have been credited with a fumble recovery. The ball would have remained with the Rams. And that’s what we have with the other play, with Philip Rivers batting a fumble out of his own end zone. The Giants are not credited with recovering an opponents fumble. In typical fantasy leagues, however, they would receive points for a safety.
Question 4
You've been high on DeVante Parker all year. Injury notwithstanding, I'd say it's time to cast him aside and move on to other productive players. Are you willing to admit that he doesn't deserve the high rankings and projections you've been assigning him? The Miami offense is dreadful and will continue to be so with Cutler in the mix.
KW Song (Pittsburgh, PA)
No, no, no. Parker was on the field for only 3 plays last week, leaving with an ankle injury. He’s got to get that ankle right, but when healthy, I think he’ll be a big-time player. He caught 18 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown in his first three games, and he put up those numbers despite being mired in an offense that’s been stuck in the mud. The Dolphins rank 30th in passing yards right now, averaging only 177 yards per game. There will be a lot more yards and touchdowns in play in their remaining games. Miami ranked 26th in passing last year, averaging 232 passing yards per game, with 27 touchdowns. Conservatively, I think you’ll see Miami average 220-plus passing yards in its remaining games, probably with 23ish touchdowns if they were starting a new 16-game season today. So I wouldn’t be considering giving up on Parker.
Question 5
Preparing for my league's midseason draft. I had been looking at 2 of the following 3 running backs: C.J. Anderson, Lamar Miller, DeMarco Murray -- but your latest redrafter has Alvin Kamara (also on my roster) ranked higher than all of them, including our custom TD-heavy scoring system. Having a hard time getting my head around keeping Kamara and letting two of the other three go. Thoughts?
Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)
Kamara is for real. I saw him rip off a 50-yard touchdown run against the Chargers in the preseason, and he scored a 25-yard touchdown at Carolina. He had a 38-yard catch and run against the Patriots, and he caught a touchdown in London against the Dolphins. They’re very comfortable with him, which played a role in them being willing to send Adrian Peterson off to Arizona. They’ll be going with Kamara and Mark Ingram as a one-two punch in their remaining games. Ingram is more experienced and rugged, so I imagine he’ll get more of the carries, but Kamara is faster and more explosive. And they’re both going to catch a lot of passes. New Orleans tends to complete 125-plus passes to running backs every year. So with Kamara, you’re getting not only a player who’ll account for 40-45 percent of his team’s rushing production, you’re also getting a guy who’ll probably catch 70-plus passes in his next 16 games. Not as heralded or well-known as those other three backs, but he’s an ascending player.
Question 6
I have not watched any Raiders games what is going on with Cooper? Bench him for now and hope he comes on? So glad Saints traded AP. We can now fire up Ingram with confidence and Kamara too. I'm sure people are going to way overspend their FA money on Adrian.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
I don’t think Peterson will do much of anything in Arizona, but I don’t know that anybody thinks he will. In the four leagues I’m in, nobody submitted a high-priced waiver claim for him. More realistically, teams that are desperate at running back are bringing him in to kick the tires – hoping maybe they can get a couple of serviceable starts out of him. As for Cooper, he’s confidence is shaken right now. He’s dropped a league-high 7 balls. But I’m confident they’ll get him going, and I expect it will happen sooner rather than later. I don’t have Cooper on any of my teams, but if I did, I would be willing to use him this week against the Chargers. But he’s not a special athlete. He will never be an A.J. Green or Julio Jones who blows away opponents with size and athleticism. Go back and look at the loss-clinching interception at the end of the Denver game, for example. EJ Manuel throws up a 50-50 ball, and Justin Simmons is able to jump a lot higher, taking that ball away. Green or Jones might have made that catch.
Question 7
Is Mark Ingram's rankings for standard scoring in this week's re-drafter correct? How can he be #9? What are you guys seeing that I don't. If so, I can trade Cohen & Thielen for him and Ertz.
DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)
I will take Ingram-Ertz over Cohen-Thielen. I think Ingram is better than he seems. The Saints run the ball better than most realize. Just one rushing touchdown so far this year, but 16, 16 and 17 the last three seasons – about one per game. Set aside quarterbacks (Brees isn’t much of a runner) and only six teams ran for more yards last year. They were 13th and 20th the previous two seasons. But it’s the work their running backs do in the passing game that most (I think) tend to overlook. New Orleans’ running backs have caught 132, 127 and 127 passes in the last three years – about 60 catches per year above the league average. There will be production in that backfield, and it’s just two guys getting almost all of those touches, with Ingram starting and Alvin Kamara picking up a good chunk of the work.
Question 8
What do you expect to see from Latavius Murray going forward? No doubt scads of fantasy owners scurried for the "drop" button after Monday night's game, imagining that McKinnon has the keys to that run game. I disagree. First, McKinnon's been there/not done that. He's too small to be a lead back, and despite his straight-line speed, he's not particularly elusive. Murray looked a little uncomfortable, perhaps showing a little rust. He didn't get a lot of work in preseason or behind Cook. But he can pound it, and has the speed to break off long runs on worn-down defenses. Zimmer knows that. The plays they ran for McKinnon on Monday night won't work for Murray. Do you think they've retained enough of the "AP" plays to utilize Murray as a true lead back?
Paul Desimone (Hayward, CA)
McKinnon was the better of those two backs Monday night, but I don’t expect it will always play out that way. I think they’ll share time. In the Bears game, they began with Murray as the starting running back and McKinnon coming in on third downs and as a change of pace. McKinnon was more effective, and so they ended up using him a lot more. It won’t always play out that way. There will be games where either McKinnon isn’t running well or Murray is more effective. McKinnon is a talented guy, but they’re never been willing to commit to him in the past. When Adrian Peterson was hurt/suspended in previous years, they tended to go to a one-two punch that included Matt Asiata. McKinnon is definitely a better pass catcher. That will often make him a better fit with what the Vikings are trying to do, and that receiving production makes him a favorite to finish with more total yards. Murray outweighs him by 25 pounds, so I think he’s more likely to be the back of choice in goal-line situations; they always used Asiata over McKinnon in those situations in recent years.
Question 9
In addition to your fantastic weekly projections, I've been trying to incorporate over/unders into my weekly roster decisions. In my (limited) research, it appears that in lower-scoring games, there is more rushing production than passing, and vice versa. So, when narrowing down a close flex decision between an RB and WR, I look at the O/U. If it's low, go RB, if it's high, go WR. I was wondering if you could plug in some historical data to see if this approach has merit.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Interesting theory, but I don’t have the data on hand to test it. I typically will look at point spreads, but they’re not much of a factor for me in calculating how the teams will perform. For me, I’m looking at how many yards and points each offense has been producing (especially recently), adjusting for who they were playing, and then comparing to what’s been allowed by the defense. Then I try to figure how said offense would perform if it were playing that game 16 times in a row (a season’s worth of games). If the Jaguars were to host the Rams every week, for example, I would think that offense would probably score 38-39 touchdowns. Divide that by 16 games and I get 2.4 touchdowns. Final step is to consult with offense/defense trends to settle on the breakdown between rushing and passing. Once those team projections are decided on, they are blended with the existing team-by-team research (with each player being assigned some percentage of rushing yards, receiving yards, rushing touchdowns and receiving touchdowns). Most of the adjustments on the percentage breakdown numbers occur earlier in the week, when looking at how each team has performed in recent games. When putting together game previews, some adjustments are made if an opposing defense tends to allow touchdown passes to tight ends or has a really good corner who’s been making things tough on opposing No. 1 receivers.
Question 10
There is an owner in our league who overloaded his roster with Packers – Rodgers, Montgomery, Nelson, Adams, Cobb and Bennett. I thought he would be in trouble: some high scores, but not enough points to go around a lineup. Since Week 1 he's doubled down on this strategy, starting all of them and even picking up Geronimo Allison after injuries. So far this owner has a winning record. We have a 5-player bench, so Week 8 is trouble is trouble for him. Do you have any advice for me prying some Packers away?
William Martin (Winnipeg, MB)
It’s a great strategy when the offense is rolling, but I expect there will be some down weeks. They’re playing at Minnesota on Sunday; will be tough to score a bunch of touchdowns in that game. Week 8 looks like a certain loss, with the bye issue. And I wouldn’t want to be built entirely on Packers in Week 15, playing on the road against Carolina. If they put up subpar numbers this week against the Vikings, and with that Week 8 bye coming out, said owner might be more willing to consider trade proposals.
Question 11
Love your insight and analysis, but I'm really scratching my head over your rankings and comments on Tarik Cohen the last couple weeks. In both the Green Bay and Minnesota games, he's only played around 26% or so of the snaps, which happens to coincide with Benny Cunningham coming off injury. In both games Howard has played some third downs and Cunningham (not Cohen) was the third-down back when Howard wasn't. And Benny even had an entire series to himself in the first half against GB. Just wondering why you have Cohen ranked as the #15 PPR RB in your redrafter rankings when he's not on the field and not being used when he is out there (he's had 6 carries each of the last two games and only one target in the Vikings game)? Thanks for the insight.
Brian Fulton (Brentwood, TN)
Good points all the way around. I’m aware Cohen wasn’t much of a factor on Monday night, and he may need to be moved down before long. I don’t know how much they want to use him on third downs. They might feel that Cunningham, with more size and experience, is a better fit in those situations – maybe he’s a lot better in pass protection. When they drafted Cohen, I don’t think the intention was that he would be a third-down back. That’s why they signed Cunningham. Cohen didn’t catch any passes in the preseason. So maybe they want to roll him back into being just a change-of-pace runner. But Cohen caught 8 passes in both of their first two games, and 4 passes in each of the next two. I thought it would be too hasty to completely re-work everything off one game. We know that Cohen is really explosive. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry in the preseason, and he’s averaged 5.4 in the real games. I think they’ll want to get that explosiveness on the field.
Question 12
Your thoughts on keeping Breida as a handcuff for injury prone Hyde. If Breida plays, how effective will he be?
Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)
Breida outplayed Hyde on Sunday, carrying 10 times for 49 yards. He looked good, while Hyde carried 8 times for only 11 yards. Kyle Shanahan indicates this will be a one-two punch, with the hot hand getting more carries. A poor man’s version, apparently, of what he had with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in Atlanta. I expect Hyde will continue to be the starter and more productive back. I suppose Breida will outperform him on some Sunday, but I think Hyde is better. We got a look at the 49ers without Hyde, recall, for about a quarter of the Rams game in Week 3, and it wasn’t pretty. For that stretch of action, they had Breida and Raheem Mostert sharing time, and neither was effective. Breida carried 3 times for 9 yards, and I remember being surprised that he wasn’t playing more. I remember also being underwhelmed with Breida in the first preseason game, when it appeared to me that Joe Williams was a lot better. If we’re ranking the No. 2 running backs 1 thru 32, I wouldn’t put Breida in the top 5. But based on how he’ll be used and Hyde’s history of injuries, I’ll put him in the top 10.
Question 13
TD-heavy keeper league TE question. Would you keep Packer Martellus Bennett or pick up: David Njoku (3 TDs so far in garbage time), Austin Seferin-Jenkins (leads Jets in targets) or AJ Derby (Broncos love their TEs). Leaning toward keeping Bennett due to Pack offense but he is not being targeted in the end zone.
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
Keeper league or dynasty league? If we’re looking long-term, I will go with Njoku. He has unusual athleticism, and he’s shown enough that it will happen for him sooner rather than later. He’s scored in three of his last four games, and I wouldn’t describe them as garbage-time touchdowns. Two of his touchdowns were scored in the first half, and the other in the middle of the third quarter. But if we’re concerned more about 2017, then I would hang in there with Martellus Bennett, figuring that if the Packers throw 40-45 touchdown passes, that eventually Bennett should carve out a viable role and have about a 50 percent chance of scoring a touchdown in any given week. If Bennett gets it rolling, he’s the guy you’ll want, and you’ve got plenty of time to figure out what you’ll be doing in 2018 and 2019.
Question 14
With Denver coming off their bye week, can we expect their passing game to have improved? With Baldwin and Bryant on bye this week, I will be deciding whether to sit Sanders, Marvin Jones or Robby Anderson (who I picked up specifically for this week.) Standard scoring. Perhaps, the better question is; who do you think Janoris Jenkins will cover, Thomas or Sanders?
PHIL KEIL (Pottsville, PA)
I’m not sure if the Giants will assign Jenkins to a specific receiver. If they do, I would think it more likely would be Demaryius Thomas. But they might use a variety of looks. They’ve been good against starting wide receivers so far, while the Broncos have used Bennie Fowler more than they have used other third receivers in the past. Might be best in this case to go with the two receivers who have unusually favorable matchups, with Jones at New Orleans and Anderson getting the Patriots.
Question 15
RB question. I have three guys who are pretty closely ranked but need to start two. I have Abdullah, Allen and Thompson.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Buck Allen is definitely starting. He’s one of my pocket picks for this week. Ravens won’t have Terrance West, and they seem to trust Allen a lot more than Alex Collins. Collins has been really effective, averaging over 6 yards per carry in a bunch of games, but he’s fumbled a couple of times and maybe doesn’t know the offense as well (maybe isn’t as good running routes or in protection?). Allen was on the field for three times as many plays last week, and he’s averaged 5 catches per game the last four weeks. And I will go with Abdullah as the second back. With Chris Thompson, he’s been a good third-down back, but players like that – Vereen, Ellington, Bernard, Riddick – tend to be more effective when their teams are losing. For Thompson to be at his best, I want Washington to be in catch-up mode, with lots of draws and dumpoff passes. That won’t be the case this week. They’re at home against the 49ers, a game I’m figuring they’ll win pretty easily.
Question 16
In a touchdown league I've managed to get myself four WRs who so far have very productive: Chris Hogan, Davante Adams, Michael Crabtree, and Will Fuller. I am starting to wonder if I would be better served in keeping the best 2-3 and trying to make a trade for a WR who was top ranked coming into the year but who has been a disappointment so far. Of these receivers who would you rank as the bottom 2 for the rest of the season for a TD-scoring league and is there any WR you would target who has been a disappointment so far but looks ready to rebound? Maybe someone like Mike Evans or Michael Thomas?
Rich Nadler (Aurora, IL)
You’ve got together a nice receiving corps. The guys are scoring. That’s what every fantasy owner wants. Why do you want to mess with that? I suppose if the owner of Mike Evans really wants to make a deal you can poke around with the possibilities, but probably best to just stick with what’s working well. Guys get hurt. Adams, Crabtree and Fuller have all missed time already this year. I imagine there will be more missed games along the way, and you’ll want to tap into that depth.
Question 17
Follow up question on Melvin Gordon. Okay you are killing me. First you drop Melvin Gordon from 7th to 21st and now back to 8 … all in 3 weeks … ha ha ha. Is this Roller Coaster Fantasy Football or what? I don't think I have ever seen you with such large ups and downs in such a short period of time.
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
I change stuff every week. Guys move up and down as I try to balance reacting and no overreacting to developments. In regards to Gordon, the two big drivers have been a knee injury that affecting his playing time in Weeks 3-4 (is this a long-term problem? Can we count on him staying healthy for 16 games?) and the overall quality of the team (is the a bottom-5 team with a terrible offensive line that won’t really even try to run the ball?). He looked good last week, putting up 105 rushing and 58 receiving yards, with a couple of touchdowns.
Question 18
Who is the backup running back behind Ingram and Kamara ? I have Kamara and am considering handcuffing him.
DARYL DORSEY (Amarillo, TX)
They’ve got one other tailback on their roster. Trey Edmunds. He averaged 2.9 yards per carry in the preseason and finished with under 200 rushing yards in each of his final three years of college (at Virginia Tech and Maryland). I don’t think Edmunds is worth carrying on a fantasy roster.