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Mailbag for October 20, 2017

Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Injured players who should be showing up on your fantasy radar. Do you start a good wide receiver with a bad matchup (or a bad wide receiver with a good matchup)? Is Nelson Agholor for real? And what's up with Willie Snead?

Question 1

How about a list of players that are not on the radar that you would target in a trade or free-agent pick up?

Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)

There are a lot of injured players who’ll be coming back. Corey Davis, most notably, looked like a possible superstar in his first game, catching 6 passes for 69 yards. He’s been sidelined by a hamstring injury for most of the season, but I expect he’ll be healthy after their Week 8 bye. It wouldn’t surprise me if Davis is Tennessee’s most productive pass catcher in the second half of the season. Charles Clay (knee) should be back in a week or two, and he was having a solid season. He averaged 52 yards in his first five games, with 2 TDs, looking like a top-10 tight end. Dede Westbrook was really impressive in the preseason, consistently getting open for long catches downfield. He’s eligible to come off injured reserve after Week 8, and I expect they’ll quickly work him in as their primary deep threat. I could see him making more big plays than either Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns (problem, though, is we’re talking about a limited Jacksonville offense, where it’s difficult for any pass catcher to thrive). Corey Coleman (broken hand) should return in Week 11, so it’s about time for teams to start picking him up. He’ll be Cleveland’s best pass catcher in the final third of the season (though that offense has looked pretty stinky recently). Erik Swoope should return soon for the Colts, but with him, you’re dipping into a double question mark – he’s got to show he’s healthy and carve out of role in the offense, and he needs Andrew Luck to get healthy and work his way back into some kind of form.

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Question 2

Your redrafter projections show the Indianapolis QB combo (Brissett and Luck) equaling as much as the top QB. Confirming you would recommend using Brissett until Luck is ready? Or are you forecasting Luck doing well above everyone when he returns?

Peter Wohler (Minneapolis, MN)

If you can avoid using Brissett, that would be a good thing (they don’t have anymore home games left against the Browns and 49ers, do they?). To clarify, I expect the Colts will finish with below-average passing numbers during the remainder of the season. Maybe they’re slightly above average if they get Luck back for 6-7 games, but that’s looking less and less likely. The confusion here is caused by your decision to add together Brissett’s and Luck’s projected season totals. That a logical strategy, and one that a half-dozen other guys around the country have written in to ask about the last few years. But you’re not working with true numbers. With some of these players, I tossed in some extra stats to elevate them on the board. Consider Luck and Aaron Rodgers, for example. Given that both are injured, they’ll probably both finish with fewer yards and touchdowns in the remaining 11 weeks than Joe Flacco, Mitchell Trubisky and Jay Cutler. Even C.J. Beathard and DeShone Kizer. But in typical fantasy leagues, nobody is winning anything with those guys. But if Rodgers comes back for 3-4 games, and if Luck comes back and starts putting up the top-5 quarterback numbers he’s capable of, then we’ve got something. So in typical fantasy leagues, we want Rodgers and Luck higher on the draft board than those other guys. So with these kind of players, I decide where I want them on the board, then toss in some extra stats behind the curtain, making them slot to the right spot. It’s a strategy (on my end) that works fine. I want you to see Rodgers/Luck as a backup quarterback option. But we get into trouble if you try to combo those season-total projections.

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Question 3

Thanks for all you do, as my wife and my teams have 5-1 records and the two highest points in our 10 man non-PPR league. Of course, we're the only ones using FFI. Sorry but we always hide our draft sheets. I do always promote you to friends that play in other leagues. My question relates to the unusual volatility with the WRs, as my top two in the Redrafter Hilton and Allen drop 30 spots in the Weekly, which lists Martavis Bryant and Agholor as my top two, moving up 20 places. Are you sure? (I'm hoping that Martavis' girlfriend knows what the hell she's doing.)

Bob Phipps (Orlando, FL)

With the Redrafter, we’re looking at the rest of the season – which players will be the best over the course of the season? But with the Weekly, we’re focusing just on the games that are right in front of us. And when looking at Week 7, I don’t much care about what a guy might do in November or December. In your specific case, you’ve got T.Y. Hilton and Keenan Allen, who are going against the two best cornerback teams in the league. The Jaguars have really been shutting down opponents this year. With Hilton, you’re really holding onto him, waiting and hoping that Andrew Luck will show up and bring him to life. Allen is a nice pass catcher, but he’s definitely a possession guy and facing a defense that can really smother wide receivers. With the Chargers, this is an offense that typically will average about 280 passing yards, with Philip Rivers throwing maybe 28 touchdowns. But Denver since the start of last year has allowed an average over only 201 passing yards (about 50 under the league average), and with only 22 TD passes in those 21 games. And those aren’t touchdown passes to wide receivers, those are touchdowns to all players. Probably 50-50 at best that Rivers throws a touchdown pass to a wide receiver this week, and if he does, it could go to either Allen, Benjamin or either one of the Williams. There’s always a chance you’re wrong on these kind of decisions, but for me, I would be very comfortable putting out Bryant and Agholor as my starters, with Hilton and Allen sitting out.

PASSING PRODUCTION AGAINST DENVER
YearOpponentPointsP YdsTDP
2016Car.201941
2016Ind.201971
2016at Cin.172060
2016at T.B.71790
2016Atl.232671
2016at S.D.211781
2016Hou.91310
2016S.D.192672
2016at Oak.301840
2016at N.O.233033
2016K.C.302201
2016at Jac.101810
2016at Ten.13880
2016N.E.161880
2016at K.C.332462
2016Oak.61711
2017LAC211923
2017Dall.172382
2017at Buff.262132
2017Oak.102491
2017NYG231281

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Question 4

Always appreciate your insight. TD-heavy dynasty league. I stream a WR every week unsuccessfully. I just picked up Willie Snead due to high passing offense but read your review about DeVante Parker who is available. Cut Snead for Parker?

HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)

Definitely. Parker is very much a No. 1 receiver, and should be an every-week starter for some team in your league. With his size and speed, he looks like he’s going to develop into another Alshon Jeffery, and I think it will happen. He caught 18 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown in his first three games, and there’s nothing wrong with that production. He’s just had an ankle injury the last two weeks. I wouldn’t be excited about using him this week; they say they’re hopeful he’ll play, but he’s definitely not 100 percent. But once he’s back to something close to full health (probably in Week 8) I think you’ll be very happy with him. Snead, on the other hand, looks pretty ordinary to me. He’s fallen just short of 1,000 yards the last two years, but he’s never been a great scorer. The Saints have thrown 70 touchdowns in the last two years, and he’s caught only 7 of them. Now it seems like they’ve soured on him. In both the preseason and in the game on Sunday against the Lions, it didn’t seem like the Saints considered him to be any more important than they’re other secondary wide receivers (Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman).

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Question 5

I'm curious as to why you're still bearish on Nelson Agholor even though Wentz keeps looking for him in the red zone and that Philly offense is definitely not terrible.

Randall Brater (Washington, DC)

I’ve probably been too slow to pick up on Agholor. He keeps making big plays. Right now he’s on pace to finish the season with 53 catches, 856 yards and 10-11 touchdowns. As for the post-mortem of why I haven’t moved him up the board sooner, there’s been the question of the overall offense. At what point do we buy in on Wentz and say that he’s one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks – a guy who’s going to pass for maybe 4,500 yards and 30-plus touchdowns? He started strong (especially in those first two weeks) but he’s still a second-year quarterback. And is that going to become more of a balance, run-pass team? After going pass crazy in their first two games, the Eagles have run the ball a lot more often and a lot more effectively in their last four. And where are we slotting Agholor? At the beginning of the year, I wasn’t sure whether Agholor or Torrey Smith should be their No. 2 wide receiver. Smith is the starter and a good deep threat, while Agholor is playing in the slot. At this point, I’ve separated Agholor, placing him above Smith. But I’m not ready to say that Agholor will be better than Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. Those guys are good players. So we’re talking about the No. 3 option, I think, and what’s probably a top-10 passing game. I think that’s what Agholor is.

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Question 6

Is it worth picking up one of the other running backs for Dallas now that Zeke might be suspended? If so, which one?

DAVID SMITH (Macon, GA)

Definitely. With most backup running backs – James Conner, Matt Breida, Mike Tolbert – you’re holding them so that you’re in the right spot if an injury occurs. With Ezekiel Elliott, you get that value, plus the added potential of him getting hit with a suspension. That’s still hung up in the courts, but I would expect that at some point this year, Elliott will have to sit out some games. That could occur shortly after court proceedings at the end of the month (Elliott looks certain to play in Week 8 at Washington). If and when a suspension occurs, Alfred Morris might be a top-10 back. I think he’ll be their guy. Darren McFadden seemed to have that role in August, but he’s been inactive for all of the regular season games. Morris seems to have moved ahead of him on the depth chart. Morris averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the preseason and has been getting a few carries off the bench. In their last two games, his four carries have gone for 70, 6, 5 and 5 yards. He’s a capable back, and he fits this system. Morris isn’t good on passing downs; I saw him cause a sack in the preseason by missing a block (so I think they’d avoid using him in passing situations). But Morris, I believe, will be their main runner.

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Question 7

I’m in a 10-team half-PPR league, sitting at 4-2 and last week I scored a trade for Julio Jones. So now I have Antonio Brown, Julio and a pretty strong reserve receivers. Problem is I suck at RB. My top RB is the Duke Johnson and I’ve the likes of Orleans Darkwa, Alfred Morris and Bilal Powell on bench. We start 1 RB, 2 WR and a flex so I’m of the opinion that WR is more valuable in this format. So my question is should I try to trade for a top-tier RB, like maybe Julio for Jordan Howard or something along those lines? Appreciate your thoughts on this one.

Brian Brady (Vienna, WV)

Any trade that comes along that makes your team better, I’m all for it. But you need not make a deal. I think you’re fine with what you have. Most weeks you roll out three good wide receivers, and you just need to find somebody at running back who won’t muck it up. You only need one running back. Duke Johnson is on pace to catch 69 passes, so he fits well in this scoring format. Orleans Darkwa has played really well the last two weeks; you might have something with him. If and when Ezekiel Elliott gets suspended, you’ll be able to plug in Alfred Morris for six weeks. And I’m guessing there will be more capable running back options that will show up on the waiver wire. No need to panic – team seems to be on schedule.

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2 Reader Comments on Question 2:

Moishe Steigmann

Glendale, WI
2017-10-20T16:47:36Z
I'm recalling many comments where you remind us that you do this. I have another thought. On your rankings, you list them by projected points, massaging the values where needed behind the scenes. Would you consider not doing that but simply ranking players where you think that they should be even if the projected points are off? For instance, I would find it more useful seeing you rank Rodgers at, say 21, and Kizer at, say, 22 even though Rodgers projected points might be a fraction of Kizer's. It's far easier for my eye to see that their projected points are off but to appreciate that you would gamble on Rodger's upside despite the fact that this likely production will be far worse. Just a thought -- but it might eliminate the confusion of "How did Ian get to this projected points for Player X?".

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2017-10-20T17:02:27Z
Agreed. That's one of the reasons that in August (when we're also publishing in the pdf projected stats for each player) I use per-game numbers rather than season totals. During the regular season, if you want to look at stats for players, they are best accessed in the Excel Stat Projections download file. You can find it in the "Your Stuff" area of the website. When you open that Excel file, there are three tabs. One shows projected per-game numbers. One shows the expected totals if everyone were to play 16 games. And the third shows the expected stats for the remainder of the season (current Weeks 7-17). The third one is the one that includes the ghost numbers.

1 Reader Comment on Question 5:

Vin Kmetz

2017-10-21T10:44:50Z
I can understand the slower-pace on Agholor, according to the factors you cite. Still, I picked him up this week for 10.5% of FA budget, because he's the 17th best receiver so far this year and the next closest FA guy is Cooper Kupp in the mid 30s;then it's a bunch of Brandon coleman-types, who are nearly impossible to start & get their best numbers. Another reason I like him is that he and Ertz are really the only holdovers from last year's team. Both Matthewses are out, as is Sproles...Ertz and Agholor have the raw work time edge with the promising sophomore; Agholor amplified this in the off-season regaining health and good notices in OTAs. I think you are reasonable in your general projections for week 7 out - I might have a few more catches but 1-2 less TDs - and I don't know if there will be a Jarvis Landry type "catch-monster" in this offense, but if it will be anyone, I think it will be Agholor.

9 Reader Comments on Question 6:

Rocky Petrella

Philadelphia, PA
2017-10-21T09:01:29Z
I think you (and many other fantasy analysts) are misreading the Cowboys rb situation. McFadden ran as the top non-Zeke back thru the preseason. Then he's been inactive since Week 1. My read all along is that they are worried Zeke eventually has to serve the suspension and so they're keeping McFadden on ice until that happens. His skill set hews more closely to Elliot's than Morris, though neither obviously nearly as good. And he doesn't play special teams. And he's always been a fragile back even when he was younger. There's no point in having both he and Morris active since Zeke will monopolize the touches anyway. I think they're trying to preserve his health in case the Zeke suspension hits. What's more likely? They all of a sudden decided after the last preseason game but before Week 1 that McFadden was no longer the top backup? Or the scenario I laid out? I have no doubt both backs will be involved but I think McFadden will be the lead guy if/when Elliott is out. And there were reports from Cowboys beat writers saying as much last week when the suspension was briefly back in place. I personally own Zeke in my main redraft league and have McFadden and not Morris and feel pretty secure with that.

Vin Kmetz

2017-10-21T10:55:31Z
I agree Rocky...Morris is the better thing to have as the "in-game" backup, McFadden is the older, convenience auto you don't keep registered, unless the family's main car craps out. Not many rosters can accommodate it, but with Elliot's investment and likely center of a team who owns him, McFadden AND Morris are sound caution...McFadden can go down with any wrong step too.

JUSTIN ELEFF

Chicago, IL
2017-10-21T14:34:29Z
My two cents: Not only is there the possibility that the Cowboys are in fact saving McFadden for heavier use, but even if Morris were their first lead option without Zeke that would hardly settle the question *for six weeks*. Neither guy is great, both have tended to be injury-prone; as such I'd say the situation might always be pretty fluid, and at minimum McFadden would have value as the handcuff to Morris. So the safe move, if you can find room, is definitely to keep both on your roster until we have more definitive word on Zeke.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2017-10-21T17:49:40Z
Alfred Morris is about the last guy I would put the "injury prone" label on. He was in Washington for four years and started all 64 games. And he's never been hurt with the Cowboys (they've chosen not to use him in a couple of games). He's an iron man. So there's that. There was also some speculation about Morris being active because he plays special teams. Not the case. He's a runner only -- doesn't play on any of the special teams units. Time will tell, but I believe he'll be their starting tailback if and when Ezekiel Elliott ever winds up being put on ice.

JUSTIN ELEFF

Chicago, IL
2017-10-21T18:20:51Z
OK, OK, "prone" is too strong. But there was a rib thing in 2015 that definitely bothered him across games. Call this a case of me holding a grudge. The overarching point remains; even if we're 80 or 85% confident that Morris is the RB1 post-Zeke, that means DMC would step into the position Morris is in now, and he also has that 15 or 20% uncertainty going for him. If you have room for both, why not roster both for a couple of weeks?

Joseph Varnon

Houston, TX
2017-10-21T22:58:10Z
Getting no work at all is an unusual way to prepare for lots of work. If the Cowboys think he is too brittle to handle 3 carries a game, are they really making big plans around him? 16 week handcuffs are of questionable value; 6 week handcuffs need everything breaking right - McFadden would face limitations, Elliott not tearing it up, requires 3 RB from same team clogging roster

JUSTIN ELEFF

Chicago, IL
2017-10-21T23:48:57Z
Joseph: Agreed. You'd need lots of room to make holding all three work. But we have seen teams leapfrog their RB2s before, leaving those guys in the change-of-pace role and making the new RB1 of the previous RB3. And you're only holding these guys until Zeke's situation finally gets resolved -- presumably (famous last words here) next week or the week after. And in any case, I'm not suggesting dropping anyone good. But if we think Zeke will eventually have to sit out, and there's a 1-in-5 chance it's DMC and not Morris that you wanted, isn't that better than having some other pure speculation on the roster right now? Remember: the Cowboys run the ball better than almost anyone, and that isn't all Zeke's doing. Don't drop an injured star, don't drop a guy you need for bye coverage in the short term, but I believe DMC should be on *some* roster in most leagues.

Joseph Varnon

Houston, TX
2017-10-22T07:35:57Z
the looming suspension also makes the 6-week window a moving target, meaning the dead weight could actually need to be carried basically to the end, but yes I'm sure somebody could use him - so either could be picked up, but as to which, if one, Morris

Victor Rodriguez

Kanata, ON
2017-10-22T13:25:22Z
I jeep heart fait about Brieda as a keeper.
I'm in a standard league of 14 teams and I have one spot worth giving up its either for Buck Allen or Matt Breida. Who's likely more to shine in the second half o the year?
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