ATLANTA (at New England)
Atlanta's offense has struggled. Three times in five games, it's scored only 2 TDs and 23 or fewer points. To put that in perspective, Atlanta scored fewer than 3 TDs only four times all last season, and scored 30-plus point 11 times. But help is on the way ...
... in a Patriots defense that can't stop anyone. The Patriots have allowed 30-plus points three times already, and good production to a few lesser offenses (including the Jets last week). The game's in New England, but that's not necessarily a negative. At home the Patriots have allowed 42, 33 and 33 points thus far -- fortunate not to lose all three games. It wasn't Atlanta's offense that lost the Super Bowl encounter, putting up 388 yards and 3 TDs against a better New England defense. ... Certainly, it's a choice matchup for Matt Ryan. Six different quarterbacks have faced this defense, only one of whom has a remotely comparable resume, and all have put up big numbers.
| Quarterbacks versus New England | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Yards | TDs |
| Alex Smith | 368 | 4 |
| Drew Brees | 356 | 2 |
| Deshaun Watson | 301 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 316 | 3 |
| Jameis Winston | 334 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 354 | 2 |
You have to think Bill Belichick will figure out some things that work eventually, but a defense that couldn't put the clamps on Josh McCown is very unlikely to have any more success against Ryan. Good chance he makes it seven straight quarterbacks over 300 passing yards, and probably toss 2-3 TDs, as well. He threw for 284 and 2 in Super Bowl LI. ... With Matt Ryan a little off his game, Julio Jones isn't putting up big numbers. Most remarkably, he hasn't scored. There should be plenty of yards and points in this one, but we're leery of promising Jones will break out. ...
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... Despite all the passing production against New England, the last four No. 1-type wide receivers to face them have only been good, not great. Michael Thomas caught 5 balls for 89 yards, Mike Evans 5 for 49, and DeAndre Hopkins 7 for 76. Kelvin Benjamin went over 100 yards (4 for 104), but none of those players scored. Not that anyone should be sitting Jones down, but it's not as favorable a matchup as you might expect. Dan Quinn said Monday he wants to get Jones more involved, but defending him will probably be a focal point of New England's game plan, too. The Patriots held Jones to 4 for 87 in the Super Bowl. ... Mohamed Sanu was knocked out of Week 4 with a hamstring injury that was expected to cost him 2-3 weeks. So decent chance he'll return, and we're proceeding as if he'll be available. Prior to getting hurt Sanu had been playing well, catching 4-6 passes in each of the first three games, for an average of 53 yards, with 1 TD. He wasn't a factor in the Super Bowl (2 for 25) but the way this pass defense has played, he should be very productive if he plays. If he needs to sit another week, that will benefit Austin Hooper. Hooper had just 2 targets in each of the first three games, but has caught 12 balls for 98 yards the last two weeks. He was targeted on the game-losing interception near the goal line last week, but not his fault; just a great defensive play. We're figuring Sanu plays, hurting Hooper's value, but the matchup is excellent. The Patriots have allowed 5 TDs to tight ends and nearly a sixth on the controversial Austin Seferian-Jenkins play last week. Hooper also scored on this defense in the Super Bowl. Taylor Gabriel is next in line for targets, but the offense hasn't been able to spring him for much in the way of big plays this season. He's reached 40 receiving yards just once all season. New England has had some coverage breakdowns, but tough to have much confidence in Gabriel. He caught 3 for 76 in the Super Bowl, at least, but hit on big plays a lot more frequently last year. The Falcons now have another receiver in the mix for those kind of plays; undrafted wideout Marvin Hall played nearly a quarter of the snaps and caught a 40-yard touchdown last week. ... The ground game has been fine. Just 64 yards in the opener at Chicago, but an average of 135 in the last four, with at least 1 TD in every game. Devonta Freeman is at 71 rushing yards per game, with 5 TDs, and Tevin Coleman at 43 and 2 (1 run, 1 rec). Freeman's receiving production has been off this year; he has just 11 catches in five games, averaging 16 yards (Coleman's more involved, at 31 per game). The Patriots have been better against the run (20th) than the pass, and are probably even better than that. They've held three opponents to 90 yards or fewer, and two of the exceptions had quarterbacks run for 40-plus yards; Houston and Carolina would also have been down around that level. The duo combined for 104 rushing and 52 receiving yards in the Super Bowl, with 2 TDs (1 run, 1 rec), which is a reasonable target area. ... Matt Bryant was dealing with a back injury last week, but he's fine. He hit from 50 and was short from 59 against Miami. Patriots are allowing 7.5 kicking points per game. Just 4 extra points for Bryant in the Super Bowl. ... The Falcons Defense got Vic Beasley back from injury last week, which should help their pass rush. Atlanta has just 12 sacks and 2 interceptions on the season. Tom Brady doesn't turn it over very often (2 interceptions), but he's a 40-year-old quarterback whose struggling defense is forcing him to pass the ball plenty, and he's taken 16 sacks, making it look like a good matchup in that area. Falcons sacked him 5 times in the Super Bowl and brought an interception back for a touchdown.