Most people expect the next NBA playoffs to go the same way the last three have gone: The Warriors against the Cavaliers at the end, with the Warriors probably winning. Maybe winning easily.
I know, this isn't an NBA site. I don't watch too much of it myself. But this is going somewhere.
It's a logical prediction, considering the talent level on both teams compared to the rest of the league. Thing is, the records so far don't support that assessment, so something has to change. Your fantasy team might be in the same predicament.
As of this writing, Golden State is in fourth place in the Western Conference, which barely earns them home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But that's better than Cleveland, who would miss the playoffs entirely if they started today.
They don't start today, of course. Those teams have about 75 more games to improve their standings. But your fantasy team? Maybe a half-dozen more games if you're lucky. So if you're still wondering how your overwhelming team has such an underwhelming record, it's time to put that aside and start being a little more productive.
Unless your league has special provisions that benefit teams with bad records that score a ton of points (as I discussed last week) your record is all that matters. And if you think your team is better than its record, it could be due to a few common reasons.
The question is, which team are you?
Always picks the wrong starter. No matter what decision you make, it's the wrong one. You have an uncanny ability to choose the guy who will score the least points. In fact, you do it every time and it's cost you several games this season.
The first thing you should do is stop calculating whether or not you would have won if you had made the other decision. I know you're doing that. No reason to torture yourself. Once you make a decision, let it go.
Next, analyze exactly how you keep making the wrong choice. Are you switching out players at the last minute? Going with a ranking instead of your gut (or vice-versa)? Deciding based on weather, opposing defense or some other factor other than who you think is the better player?
Whatever it is, stop doing it. Start (or stop) trusting your gut. Ignore the weather. Resist the temptation to make a last-second change. You still might not pick the right guy, but you'll get out of your own way and give yourself a chance.
Your "name" players aren't performing. You're putting in the "right" players each week, but someone on your bench keeps outscoring them.
The problem here is that nobody should get a spot in your lineup automatically. They need to earn it. So if a player is consistently outperforming another one, the choice shouldn't depend on who was drafted where. Go into each week with a completely clean slate and try to determine who's really earned a spot on Sunday.
Don't get carried away, of course. In one league I always start Julio Jones and leave Mohamed Sanu on the bench. I also start Kelvin Benjamin and leave Devin Funchess out of the lineup. Sometimes it costs me, but I'm comfortable letting the chips fall where they may in those cases. There's no question who the go-to receivers are on those teams.
But if your starters aren't living up to their names and you don't have better options on the bench, maybe the team simply isn't that good. Maybe a 3-5 record is more accurate than unlucky, and this isn't a top team. I'm not saying to give up, because you can still turn things around. You never, ever give up. But this could be a case of mistaken identity. As in, you though you had a contender when you really have a disappointment.
It happens to all of us. I won the Fantasy Index Super League (the precursor to this year's Blackout) a few seasons ago. I'm almost always in the top 40. This year I'm ranked somewhere at the bottom, probably between Cher and the red balloon from It.
You keep running into the weekly high score. Your league's average is about 100, and you scored 130. Unfortunately, your opponent scored 142. If you score 150, they score 153. Meanwhile, other teams win games 71-60, and they'll probably make the playoffs while you sit at home.
Sorry, can't help you here. There's no way to combat the random obstacle that is your league schedule. All you can do is score as many points as you can, and hope the luck turns in your favor.
Except for making sure you get out of your own way and being realistic about what team you have, maybe there isn't much else you can do. You don't have 75 more games on the schedule. But maybe six will be enough, and if you truly have a good team, you have to hope it starts paying off. If not, it might be time for desperate measures. More on that next week.
Can you relate to any of those teams? Are there ones I missed? Share your thoughts below.