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Revised offensive projections

Schedule becomes more of a factor in November

The Redrafter gets a little different at this time of year. In September, I tend to focus on the offenses in general – what they would do against an average schedule. At that point, I don’t think it’s smart to put too much weight into the defenses they’re playing. Best to stick to only one unknown (the offenses) rather than moving the conclusions based on another unknown (the defenses).

But the season is half over now. We know which offenses and defenses are good and bad. So it makes a lot more sense to look at the upcoming 5-6 games for each team. That gives you a better idea of what to expect.

So we’re now working those into our rest-of-the-season grades.

You saw the individual player projections yesterday. Here are the team projections behind those numbers.

Starting with offensive touchdowns. I like to think of these in 16-game blocks, so here’s what I would expect from each offense if we were to start a new 16-game season today (only each team would be playing its next 5-6 games three times to get there).

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
Dallas29.121.050.1
New Orleans32.516.549.0
New England32.815.248.0
Philadelphia34.413.648.0
Pittsburgh28.015.043.0
LA Rams25.117.142.2
Kansas City28.812.040.8
Atlanta25.814.640.3
Oakland26.413.840.2
Tennessee22.118.140.2
Washington29.99.939.8
Seattle32.66.439.0
Jacksonville19.218.437.6
LA Chargers27.29.636.8
Buffalo21.315.236.5
Tampa Bay28.57.235.7
Carolina22.412.835.2
Detroit28.85.634.4
NY Jets22.911.534.4
Green Bay19.213.632.8
Minnesota20.212.532.6
Baltimore21.610.932.5
Houston21.39.630.9
NY Giants20.510.130.6
Denver19.211.230.4
Cincinnati23.46.730.1
Miami22.46.929.3
Indianapolis17.911.029.0
Arizona19.79.128.8
Chicago15.712.828.5
Cleveland16.89.626.4
San Francisco15.210.425.6

For rushing production, I’ve got Jacksonville, Dallas and Tennessee leading the way. The Titans actually haven’t run the ball well recently, but I think they’ll be helped by an easy schedule.

For each team, you’re seeing expecting rushing yards per game, expected rushing touchdowns per game, and fantasy points (6 for TDs, and 1 for every 10 yards).

PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Jacksonville1651.1523.4
Dallas1451.3122.4
Tennessee1321.1320.0
LA Rams1301.0719.4
Buffalo135.9519.2
Philadelphia140.8519.1
New Orleans1251.0318.7
Chicago135.8018.3
Atlanta120.9117.5
New England115.9517.2
Pittsburgh114.9417.0
Carolina122.8017.0
Baltimore122.6816.3
Kansas City117.7516.2
Green Bay110.8516.1
Denver115.7015.7
Minnesota110.7815.7
Oakland103.8615.5
NY Giants113.6315.1
NY Jets105.7214.8
Houston108.6014.4
Indianapolis97.6913.8
Arizona95.5712.9
San Francisco90.6512.9
Washington90.6212.7
Cleveland85.6012.1
LA Chargers85.6012.1
Seattle95.4011.9
Tampa Bay85.4511.2
Miami85.4311.1
Cincinnati80.4210.5
Detroit75.359.6

For passing production, I’ve still got the Patriots in the top spot, but not by as much as you might expect. They’ve got a difficult upcoming schedule. In a lot of these games, they’re going to throw 2 TDs, rather than consistently getting up to the 3-4 TDs you’re hoping for when you use an early pick on Tom Brady.

PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPPoints
New England2952.0541.8
Seattle2822.0440.4
New Orleans2822.0340.4
Washington2781.8739.0
Philadelphia2602.1538.9
Tampa Bay2801.7838.7
Pittsburgh2701.7537.5
Detroit2651.8037.3
LA Chargers2701.7037.2
Kansas City2601.8036.8
Atlanta2701.6136.7
Oakland2651.6536.4
Dallas2451.8235.4
LA Rams2551.5734.9
Tennessee2351.3831.8
Cincinnati2301.4631.8
NY Jets2301.4331.6
Carolina2301.4031.4
Miami2301.4031.4
Buffalo2281.3330.8
Houston2251.3330.5
Minnesota2281.2630.4
Baltimore2221.3530.3
Indianapolis2301.1229.7
Green Bay2251.2029.7
Jacksonville2251.2029.7
NY Giants2201.2829.7
Denver2201.2029.2
San Francisco235.9529.2
Arizona2051.2327.9
Cleveland2151.0527.8
Chicago170.9822.9

—Ian Allan

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