As we reach the halfway point of the season, I’m changing the way the overall player grades are put together. Now that we’re into November, I’m paying more attention to schedules, and looking more closely at the next month-plus for each team. The last couple of weeks of the season aren’t as important (Week 17 isn’t used in most fantasy leagues, and Week 16 only counts if you’re in the championship game).
So as part of the weekly process of auditing and adjusting, I take a peek at each team for the next five-six games. How many are at home? And what’s the quality of the opposition? Now that we’re reaching the halfway point, we also have a much better idea of what defenses are all about.
It doesn’t make sense to pay much attention to schedules back in early September, because it’s far less certain how good the defenses will be. So early in the year, I tend to project how players and teams would perform against average opposition.
At this point of the year – and continuing for the rest of the month – those upcoming games will play a more significant role in the redrafter product.
You saw the revised overall player rankings on Tuesday – individual projections for each guy. Stepping back a level, I’ve got the team projections for each offense (the numbers that feed those individual player forecasts).
For team touchdowns, I like to look at 16-game blocks – how would a team perform if it were starting a new 16-game season today. Expect the numbers here are heavily influenced by what’s immediately ahead. So while you see 16-game totals for each team, it’s really just the next five-six games for each team multiplied out.
The Saints, for example, don’t have the league’s best offense, but they’ve got a bunch of games at home and a far rosier upcoming schedule than the Patriots and Eagles. For the Cowboys, you’re seeing how they would perform for a full 16 games without Ezekiel Elliott.
| TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TDP | TDR | Total |
| New Orleans | 32.8 | 16.8 | 49.6 |
| New England | 32.8 | 15.2 | 48.0 |
| Philadelphia | 34.1 | 10.4 | 44.5 |
| Dallas | 28.8 | 15.2 | 44.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 28.0 | 15.2 | 43.2 |
| Houston | 29.9 | 12.5 | 42.4 |
| Kansas City | 28.5 | 12.5 | 41.0 |
| Oakland | 26.7 | 13.8 | 40.5 |
| Seattle | 32.6 | 7.7 | 40.3 |
| Tennessee | 22.4 | 17.6 | 40.0 |
| Washington | 30.7 | 8.8 | 39.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 30.9 | 8.2 | 39.0 |
| Atlanta | 22.9 | 15.2 | 38.1 |
| LA Rams | 22.7 | 15.4 | 38.1 |
| LA Chargers | 27.4 | 10.6 | 37.9 |
| Jacksonville | 18.9 | 18.1 | 37.0 |
| Buffalo | 19.8 | 15.2 | 35.0 |
| Carolina | 23.5 | 11.5 | 35.0 |
| Minnesota | 19.8 | 13.9 | 33.8 |
| Green Bay | 20.5 | 13.0 | 33.4 |
| NY Jets | 23.2 | 10.1 | 33.3 |
| Detroit | 27.2 | 5.6 | 32.8 |
| Cincinnati | 25.0 | 7.7 | 32.6 |
| Baltimore | 18.7 | 13.1 | 31.8 |
| Denver | 20.0 | 11.5 | 31.5 |
| NY Giants | 21.3 | 9.4 | 30.7 |
| Miami | 21.6 | 8.0 | 29.6 |
| San Francisco | 17.6 | 11.5 | 29.1 |
| Arizona | 19.2 | 8.8 | 28.0 |
| Indianapolis | 16.5 | 11.5 | 28.0 |
| Chicago | 15.2 | 12.0 | 27.2 |
| Cleveland | 16.5 | 9.3 | 25.8 |
For passing production, I’ve got the Patriots No. 1, and not much difference between the next three – Saints, Bucs, Seahawks.
On this one, you’re seeing gross passing yards (not including sacks), TD passes per game, and fantasy points (using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards).
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| New England | 302 | 2.05 | 42.5 |
| New Orleans | 285 | 2.05 | 40.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 290 | 1.93 | 40.6 |
| Seattle | 282 | 2.04 | 40.4 |
| Washington | 278 | 1.92 | 39.3 |
| Philadelphia | 260 | 2.13 | 38.8 |
| Houston | 267 | 1.87 | 37.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| LA Chargers | 268 | 1.71 | 37.1 |
| Detroit | 260 | 1.70 | 36.2 |
| Kansas City | 255 | 1.78 | 36.2 |
| Oakland | 260 | 1.67 | 36.0 |
| Dallas | 250 | 1.80 | 35.8 |
| Atlanta | 266 | 1.43 | 35.2 |
| Cincinnati | 240 | 1.56 | 33.4 |
| LA Rams | 248 | 1.42 | 33.3 |
| Carolina | 235 | 1.47 | 32.3 |
| Tennessee | 237 | 1.40 | 32.1 |
| NY Jets | 230 | 1.45 | 31.7 |
| NY Giants | 225 | 1.33 | 30.5 |
| Minnesota | 230 | 1.24 | 30.4 |
| San Francisco | 235 | 1.10 | 30.1 |
| Denver | 225 | 1.25 | 30.0 |
| Green Bay | 220 | 1.28 | 29.7 |
| Jacksonville | 220 | 1.18 | 29.1 |
| Indianapolis | 228 | 1.03 | 29.0 |
| Buffalo | 212 | 1.24 | 28.6 |
| Miami | 205 | 1.35 | 28.6 |
| Arizona | 205 | 1.20 | 27.7 |
| Cleveland | 215 | 1.03 | 27.7 |
| Baltimore | 205 | 1.17 | 27.5 |
| Chicago | 165 | .95 | 22.2 |
For rushing production, I have a pair of AFC South teams at the top of the heap – Jaguars and Titans. Cowboys would be higher, but they’re going without Ezekiel Elliott.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Jacksonville | 162 | 1.13 | 23.0 |
| Tennessee | 135 | 1.10 | 20.1 |
| Buffalo | 135 | .95 | 19.2 |
| Dallas | 135 | .95 | 19.2 |
| New Orleans | 120 | 1.05 | 18.3 |
| Houston | 135 | .78 | 18.2 |
| LA Rams | 122 | .96 | 18.0 |
| Atlanta | 122 | .95 | 17.9 |
| Baltimore | 127 | .82 | 17.6 |
| Chicago | 130 | .75 | 17.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 118 | .95 | 17.5 |
| Green Bay | 125 | .81 | 17.4 |
| New England | 115 | .95 | 17.2 |
| Minnesota | 115 | .87 | 16.7 |
| Denver | 123 | .72 | 16.6 |
| Kansas City | 115 | .78 | 16.2 |
| Philadelphia | 117 | .65 | 15.6 |
| Oakland | 103 | .86 | 15.5 |
| Carolina | 110 | .72 | 15.3 |
| Indianapolis | 105 | .72 | 14.8 |
| NY Giants | 112 | .59 | 14.7 |
| San Francisco | 95 | .72 | 13.8 |
| Washington | 96 | .55 | 12.9 |
| LA Chargers | 88 | .66 | 12.8 |
| Arizona | 90 | .55 | 12.3 |
| NY Jets | 85 | .63 | 12.3 |
| Miami | 90 | .50 | 12.0 |
| Cleveland | 84 | .58 | 11.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 88 | .51 | 11.9 |
| Seattle | 88 | .48 | 11.7 |
| Cincinnati | 87 | .48 | 11.6 |
| Detroit | 80 | .35 | 10.1 |
—Ian Allan