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Updated strength of schedule

Teams with easiest, hardest schedules in final six weeks

Teams are jockeying for playoff spots, and schedule should play a role in who wins (and who puts up big numbers) in the closing weeks. Some teams will play much easier closing schedules than others.

Each team has now played exactly 10 games, making the slicing, dicing and averaging easier than before. I’ll present the info in four different ways.

First of all, in the traditional wins and losses. Four teams play their six remaining games against teams that have won no more than 40 percent of their games so far, including Washington, Jacksonville, Kansas City and the Chargers. That should help those teams.

Three teams, meanwhile, will close against teams that have won at least 60 percent of their games. Most notably the Falcons, whose opponents have gone a league-best 39-21.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 12-17)
TeamWLPct
Washington2040.333
LA Chargers2337.383
Jacksonville2436.400
Kansas City2436.400
Baltimore2535.417
Denver2535.417
Pittsburgh2634.433
Tennessee2634.433
Philadelphia2733.450
Chicago2832.467
Cleveland2931.483
Dallas2931.483
Detroit2931.483
Oakland2931.483
Cincinnati3030.500
Houston3030.500
Indianapolis3030.500
New England3030.500
NY Giants3030.500
Minnesota3129.517
Arizona3228.533
Buffalo3327.550
Green Bay3327.550
San Francisco3327.550
Seattle3327.550
LA Rams3426.567
New Orleans3426.567
Carolina3525.583
Miami3525.583
NY Jets3624.600
Tampa Bay3822.633
Atlanta3921.650

Switching gears a little, I offer offensive touchdowns. Most fantasy leagues end prior to Week 17, so I’m leaving those numbers out on this one. Looking instead at just Weeks 12-16. Each team has five games in that window.

The Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Jaguars will play the defense that so far have allowed the most touchdowns. That’s just true run-pass touchdowns (I’m leaving the defensive and special teams out of this – looking for fantasy impact).

The Lions, Browns, and Texans, meanwhile, face the hardest upcoming schedules, with their opponents (on average) allowing under 2 TDs per game. Vikings have had some good games, but they’re also down near that range – a sign that offense might underperform.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 12-16)
TeamRunPassTotal
LA Chargers.741.842.58
Tennessee.821.702.52
Denver.761.762.52
Jacksonville.801.702.50
Washington.681.802.48
Miami.801.662.46
Buffalo.761.702.46
Oakland.621.802.42
Kansas City.881.522.40
NY Giants.681.702.38
New England1.101.262.36
Dallas.741.582.32
Baltimore.761.562.32
Chicago.741.522.26
Arizona.681.562.24
LA Rams.641.582.22
Philadelphia.781.442.22
NY Jets.641.562.20
Carolina.701.482.18
Atlanta.681.442.12
Indianapolis.721.402.12
Pittsburgh.581.522.10
Seattle.721.382.10
New Orleans.641.442.08
San Francisco.601.462.06
Tampa Bay.741.302.04
Green Bay.621.402.02
Minnesota.741.282.02
Cincinnati.781.242.02
Houston.641.321.96
Cleveland.741.181.92
Detroit.681.221.90

Looking at just rushing, New England, Kansas City and Dallas project to play the easiest schedules in the next five weeks. (Again, that’s leaving Week 17 out of it).

The Packers, Rams (Gurley, anyone?) and 49ers have the hardest upcoming rush schedules.

On this chart, the “points” is a fantasy figure, assuming 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 12-16)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
New England1111.1017.7
Kansas City120.8817.3
Dallas120.7416.4
Buffalo118.7616.4
Cleveland119.7416.3
Miami115.8016.3
Philadelphia115.7816.2
Tennessee112.8216.1
Denver113.7615.9
LA Chargers114.7415.8
Washington115.6815.6
Jacksonville108.8015.6
Arizona115.6815.5
Seattle111.7215.5
Minnesota108.7415.2
Chicago107.7415.1
Tampa Bay106.7415.1
Houston111.6414.9
New Orleans111.6414.9
Indianapolis106.7214.9
NY Jets110.6414.8
Detroit107.6814.8
Pittsburgh112.5814.7
Baltimore101.7614.7
Carolina105.7014.7
Atlanta105.6814.5
Cincinnati97.7814.4
Oakland107.6214.4
NY Giants103.6814.4
San Francisco100.6013.6
LA Rams95.6413.4
Green Bay91.6212.8

For passing, the easiest schedules are wasted on offenses that don’t pass the ball well enough to take much advantage: Bills, Broncos, Jaguars, Dolphins.

Hardest remaining pass schedules belong to the Browns, Texans, Colts and Lions.

The passing chart is set up just like the rushing – I’m counting only Weeks 12-16, and you’re looking at per-game passing yards, per-game TD passes and fantasy points using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 12-16)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Buffalo2751.7037.7
Denver2591.7636.4
Jacksonville2611.7036.3
Miami2631.6636.3
Tennessee2601.7036.2
LA Chargers2481.8435.9
NY Giants2561.7035.8
Oakland2481.8035.6
Washington2411.8034.9
Dallas2521.5834.6
Baltimore2521.5634.6
LA Rams2461.5834.0
Atlanta2531.4433.9
Pittsburgh2471.5233.8
Carolina2481.4833.7
Kansas City2451.5233.6
Chicago2441.5233.5
Arizona2411.5633.5
Philadelphia2451.4433.2
NY Jets2291.5632.3
San Francisco2351.4632.2
Green Bay2361.4032.0
Seattle2341.3831.7
New England2411.2631.7
New Orleans2261.4431.2
Tampa Bay2331.3031.1
Minnesota2321.2830.9
Cincinnati2341.2430.8
Detroit2351.2230.8
Indianapolis2221.4030.6
Houston2241.3230.3
Cleveland2271.1829.7

—Ian Allan

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