Teams are jockeying for playoff spots, and schedule should play a role in who wins (and who puts up big numbers) in the closing weeks. Some teams will play much easier closing schedules than others.
Each team has now played exactly 10 games, making the slicing, dicing and averaging easier than before. I’ll present the info in four different ways.
First of all, in the traditional wins and losses. Four teams play their six remaining games against teams that have won no more than 40 percent of their games so far, including Washington, Jacksonville, Kansas City and the Chargers. That should help those teams.
Three teams, meanwhile, will close against teams that have won at least 60 percent of their games. Most notably the Falcons, whose opponents have gone a league-best 39-21.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 12-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Washington | 20 | 40 | .333 |
LA Chargers | 23 | 37 | .383 |
Jacksonville | 24 | 36 | .400 |
Kansas City | 24 | 36 | .400 |
Baltimore | 25 | 35 | .417 |
Denver | 25 | 35 | .417 |
Pittsburgh | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Tennessee | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Philadelphia | 27 | 33 | .450 |
Chicago | 28 | 32 | .467 |
Cleveland | 29 | 31 | .483 |
Dallas | 29 | 31 | .483 |
Detroit | 29 | 31 | .483 |
Oakland | 29 | 31 | .483 |
Cincinnati | 30 | 30 | .500 |
Houston | 30 | 30 | .500 |
Indianapolis | 30 | 30 | .500 |
New England | 30 | 30 | .500 |
NY Giants | 30 | 30 | .500 |
Minnesota | 31 | 29 | .517 |
Arizona | 32 | 28 | .533 |
Buffalo | 33 | 27 | .550 |
Green Bay | 33 | 27 | .550 |
San Francisco | 33 | 27 | .550 |
Seattle | 33 | 27 | .550 |
LA Rams | 34 | 26 | .567 |
New Orleans | 34 | 26 | .567 |
Carolina | 35 | 25 | .583 |
Miami | 35 | 25 | .583 |
NY Jets | 36 | 24 | .600 |
Tampa Bay | 38 | 22 | .633 |
Atlanta | 39 | 21 | .650 |
Switching gears a little, I offer offensive touchdowns. Most fantasy leagues end prior to Week 17, so I’m leaving those numbers out on this one. Looking instead at just Weeks 12-16. Each team has five games in that window.
The Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Jaguars will play the defense that so far have allowed the most touchdowns. That’s just true run-pass touchdowns (I’m leaving the defensive and special teams out of this – looking for fantasy impact).
The Lions, Browns, and Texans, meanwhile, face the hardest upcoming schedules, with their opponents (on average) allowing under 2 TDs per game. Vikings have had some good games, but they’re also down near that range – a sign that offense might underperform.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | Pass | Total |
LA Chargers | .74 | 1.84 | 2.58 |
Tennessee | .82 | 1.70 | 2.52 |
Denver | .76 | 1.76 | 2.52 |
Jacksonville | .80 | 1.70 | 2.50 |
Washington | .68 | 1.80 | 2.48 |
Miami | .80 | 1.66 | 2.46 |
Buffalo | .76 | 1.70 | 2.46 |
Oakland | .62 | 1.80 | 2.42 |
Kansas City | .88 | 1.52 | 2.40 |
NY Giants | .68 | 1.70 | 2.38 |
New England | 1.10 | 1.26 | 2.36 |
Dallas | .74 | 1.58 | 2.32 |
Baltimore | .76 | 1.56 | 2.32 |
Chicago | .74 | 1.52 | 2.26 |
Arizona | .68 | 1.56 | 2.24 |
LA Rams | .64 | 1.58 | 2.22 |
Philadelphia | .78 | 1.44 | 2.22 |
NY Jets | .64 | 1.56 | 2.20 |
Carolina | .70 | 1.48 | 2.18 |
Atlanta | .68 | 1.44 | 2.12 |
Indianapolis | .72 | 1.40 | 2.12 |
Pittsburgh | .58 | 1.52 | 2.10 |
Seattle | .72 | 1.38 | 2.10 |
New Orleans | .64 | 1.44 | 2.08 |
San Francisco | .60 | 1.46 | 2.06 |
Tampa Bay | .74 | 1.30 | 2.04 |
Green Bay | .62 | 1.40 | 2.02 |
Minnesota | .74 | 1.28 | 2.02 |
Cincinnati | .78 | 1.24 | 2.02 |
Houston | .64 | 1.32 | 1.96 |
Cleveland | .74 | 1.18 | 1.92 |
Detroit | .68 | 1.22 | 1.90 |
Looking at just rushing, New England, Kansas City and Dallas project to play the easiest schedules in the next five weeks. (Again, that’s leaving Week 17 out of it).
The Packers, Rams (Gurley, anyone?) and 49ers have the hardest upcoming rush schedules.
On this chart, the “points” is a fantasy figure, assuming 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
New England | 111 | 1.10 | 17.7 |
Kansas City | 120 | .88 | 17.3 |
Dallas | 120 | .74 | 16.4 |
Buffalo | 118 | .76 | 16.4 |
Cleveland | 119 | .74 | 16.3 |
Miami | 115 | .80 | 16.3 |
Philadelphia | 115 | .78 | 16.2 |
Tennessee | 112 | .82 | 16.1 |
Denver | 113 | .76 | 15.9 |
LA Chargers | 114 | .74 | 15.8 |
Washington | 115 | .68 | 15.6 |
Jacksonville | 108 | .80 | 15.6 |
Arizona | 115 | .68 | 15.5 |
Seattle | 111 | .72 | 15.5 |
Minnesota | 108 | .74 | 15.2 |
Chicago | 107 | .74 | 15.1 |
Tampa Bay | 106 | .74 | 15.1 |
Houston | 111 | .64 | 14.9 |
New Orleans | 111 | .64 | 14.9 |
Indianapolis | 106 | .72 | 14.9 |
NY Jets | 110 | .64 | 14.8 |
Detroit | 107 | .68 | 14.8 |
Pittsburgh | 112 | .58 | 14.7 |
Baltimore | 101 | .76 | 14.7 |
Carolina | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
Atlanta | 105 | .68 | 14.5 |
Cincinnati | 97 | .78 | 14.4 |
Oakland | 107 | .62 | 14.4 |
NY Giants | 103 | .68 | 14.4 |
San Francisco | 100 | .60 | 13.6 |
LA Rams | 95 | .64 | 13.4 |
Green Bay | 91 | .62 | 12.8 |
For passing, the easiest schedules are wasted on offenses that don’t pass the ball well enough to take much advantage: Bills, Broncos, Jaguars, Dolphins.
Hardest remaining pass schedules belong to the Browns, Texans, Colts and Lions.
The passing chart is set up just like the rushing – I’m counting only Weeks 12-16, and you’re looking at per-game passing yards, per-game TD passes and fantasy points using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Buffalo | 275 | 1.70 | 37.7 |
Denver | 259 | 1.76 | 36.4 |
Jacksonville | 261 | 1.70 | 36.3 |
Miami | 263 | 1.66 | 36.3 |
Tennessee | 260 | 1.70 | 36.2 |
LA Chargers | 248 | 1.84 | 35.9 |
NY Giants | 256 | 1.70 | 35.8 |
Oakland | 248 | 1.80 | 35.6 |
Washington | 241 | 1.80 | 34.9 |
Dallas | 252 | 1.58 | 34.6 |
Baltimore | 252 | 1.56 | 34.6 |
LA Rams | 246 | 1.58 | 34.0 |
Atlanta | 253 | 1.44 | 33.9 |
Pittsburgh | 247 | 1.52 | 33.8 |
Carolina | 248 | 1.48 | 33.7 |
Kansas City | 245 | 1.52 | 33.6 |
Chicago | 244 | 1.52 | 33.5 |
Arizona | 241 | 1.56 | 33.5 |
Philadelphia | 245 | 1.44 | 33.2 |
NY Jets | 229 | 1.56 | 32.3 |
San Francisco | 235 | 1.46 | 32.2 |
Green Bay | 236 | 1.40 | 32.0 |
Seattle | 234 | 1.38 | 31.7 |
New England | 241 | 1.26 | 31.7 |
New Orleans | 226 | 1.44 | 31.2 |
Tampa Bay | 233 | 1.30 | 31.1 |
Minnesota | 232 | 1.28 | 30.9 |
Cincinnati | 234 | 1.24 | 30.8 |
Detroit | 235 | 1.22 | 30.8 |
Indianapolis | 222 | 1.40 | 30.6 |
Houston | 224 | 1.32 | 30.3 |
Cleveland | 227 | 1.18 | 29.7 |
—Ian Allan