JACKSONVILLE (vs. Seatle.)
About 2 TDs seems like the right forecast for Jacksonville's offense. They had one outlier game in London in Week 3 (when the Ravens didn't seem prepared to play overseas) but otherwise ...
...have scored 21 TDs in 11 games -- just short of 2 per week. Seattle's defense, meanwhile, has allowed 23 TDs (also close to 2 TDs per week). The Seahawks have lost Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor to season-ending injuries, but the defense still seems to be formidable. It's allowed only one touchdown in each of its last two games, at San Francisco and against the Eagles. The Falcons the previous week scored 3 TDs but gained only 279 total ...
This report is taken from today's Week 14 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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...yards. ... The Jaguars earlier in the year were pounding teams on the ground, with at least 148 rushing yards in all but one of their first nine games. But that seems to be gone. In three of the past four games, the running backs have gone for under 100 yards. Leonard Fournette is trying to play on an injured ankle; that might be a factor. Or maybe teams have just figured out how to play them. Seattle ranks 7th in run defense, so unlikely that Jacksonville will be able to simply grind this one out. The Seahawks have gone nine games in a row without letting a team's running backs go over 100 yards (Houston did it with Deshaun Watson scrambling for 67). Most recently Seattle went into games with Atlanta and Philadelphia knowing it had to stop the run and was able to do so. The Seahawks targeted Adrian Peterson (coming off a big game) in Week 10 and held him under 2 yards per carry. Unlikely that Fournette comes up huge in this game, and twice in recent weeks he's been limping around on the ankle he originally sprained back in Week 6. The Jaguars will mix in other backs, but neither Chris Ivory nor T.J. Yeldon looks viable. ... With the team running less, Blake Bortles has been doing more. He's passed for more than 240 yards, believe it or not, in five of his last seven games. Early in the year, they treated him like a rookie quarterback in some games -- he passed for only 125, 140 and 95 yards against the Texans, Jets and Steelers. The Seahawks are playing without half of the Legion of Boom, so just maybe Bortles cobbles together decent stats. Drew Stanton passed for 273 yards against this defense, and Carson Wentz went for 348 on Sunday night. But Bortles as recently as Weeks 11-12 didn't throw for more than 160 yards at Cleveland or Arizona, while Seattle held Matt Ryan to 195 and then put the clamps on a San Francisco offense that has quietly been putting up some yards. The Seahawks have allowed more than 1 TD pass in only three games all year, while Bortles has thrown more than 1 TD only twice. We'll pass on Bortles. ... In a lesser situation, we have only nominal interest in the pass catchers. Marqise Lee has been their No. 1 option; he's averaging 53 yards, with 3 TDs. Dede Westbrook doesn't look dramatically different; he's averaged 51 yards in three games since they activated him. Keelan Cole hasn't been a big factor, and they'll add Allen Hurns into that mix if he's ready to return from the high ankle sprain that's sidelined him the last three games. ... Marcedes Lewis isn't a big part of the passing game, but they like his height (6-foot-7) around the end zone. He's caught 5 of the team's 14 TD passes. But Lewis has averaged only 27 yards in his last 10 games. ... We're slotting Josh Lambo as a below-average kicker. Jacksonville is tied for 10th in kicking points. But all of his good games have come against lesser opponents they've been able to harass into a bunch of turnovers. That doesn't look likely this week. ... The Jaguars Defense has had a remarkable season, with a league-high 45 sacks. No team has forced or recovered more fumbles, and only the Ravens have intercepted more passes. But they've got Russell Wilson this week, and he doesn't tend to dish up many turnover opportunities. In his last 60 games, he's thrown only 34 interceptions and lost only 7 fumbles. Seattle as a team this year has lost only 3 fumbles, tying for 2nd-fewest. They lost only 6 fumbles all of last year. Seattle has some offensive line issues, but Wilson is a crafty scrambler; he's taken 28 sacks this year, which is close to the league average. The Eagles have a great pass rush but got him only twice on Sunday night. Jaguars probably will get 3 sacks, but we can't guarantee it. The Jaguars are one of only three teams with a 60-plus yard return on both a kickoff and a punt.