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Updated strength of schedule

Looking at "Strength of Victory" numbers

“Strength of Victory” shows up in the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures. It’s like Strength of Schedule but is designed to better paint a picture of how good a team might be. It’s a measure of strength of schedule, but looking at only games that teams won.

The idea is that you don’t get credit simply for playing teams that went 8-5 or whatever. We’re looking for teams that have been able to beat good opponents.

I had actually never composed these before. With a bunch of NFC teams in a cluster, fighting for playoff spots, I thought it might be worth looking at these numbers to see if they told us anything.

When you run them, it looks like this …

STRENGTH OF VICTORY (Weeks 1-14)
TeamWLPct.
Chicago3319.635
Kansas City4743.522
Carolina5956.513
Miami3233.492
New Orleans5759.491
Atlanta5153.490
Denver2527.481
Pittsburgh6875.476
Minnesota6070.462
New England5970.457
NY Jets2836.438
Washington2837.431
Philadelphia6182.427
NY Giants1115.423
Jacksonville4968.419
LA Rams4968.419
Buffalo3754.407
Oakland3146.403
Seattle4163.394
Baltimore3555.389
Tennessee4064.385
Houston2032.385
Arizona3048.385
Green Bay3358.363
Detroit3358.363
LA Chargers3160.341
Dallas3061.330
Tampa Bay1635.314
San Francisco1029.256
Cincinnati1451.215
Indianapolis732.179
Cleveland00---

The Bears, surprisingly, come out on top. They’ve won only four games, but three of them are against teams that might end up in the playoffs – Steelers, Ravens, Panthers. They also came close, by the way, to winning another pair of home games against postseason contenders (Atlanta, Minnesota).

Only two other teams have won their games against teams that (combined) have a winning record – Kansas City and Carolina. (While the Panthers can go toe-to-toe against good opponents, I don’t find this to be telling – the Saints and Falcons from the NFC South are close by on this list.)

At the other end of the scale, you’ve got mostly the crappy teams. The Colts have won only three games, and they’ve all come against lesser opponents – Houston, Cleveland, San Francisco.

Note that four teams hoping to get into the playoffs are down in the underbelly – Cowboys, Chargers, Lions, Packers.

Anyway, there’s “Strength of Victory”. I don’t find it to be super compelling. Not sure I’ll be running those numbers again anytime soon.

For traditional Strength of Schedule, I’ve got it listed below.

According to my figures, the Titans, Bengals, Eagles and Cowboys have played the easiest schedules so far.

Chicago, Washington, Miami and the three NFC South contenders (Saints, Panthers, Falcons) have played the league’s hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-14)
TeamWLPct.
Tennessee7296.429
Cincinnati7594.444
Philadelphia7693.450
Dallas7693.450
Jacksonville7792.456
LA Chargers7790.461
Seattle7891.462
Oakland7889.467
New England8087.479
Pittsburgh8188.479
San Francisco8287.485
NY Jets8185.488
LA Rams8386.491
Buffalo8385.494
Houston8484.500
NY Giants8584.503
Green Bay8584.503
Arizona8584.503
Kansas City8583.506
Minnesota8782.515
Detroit8782.515
Denver8681.515
Indianapolis8881.521
Baltimore8880.524
Cleveland9079.533
Tampa Bay8978.533
Miami9275.551
Carolina9275.551
Atlanta9275.551
New Orleans9473.563
Washington9772.574
Chicago9970.586

—Ian Allan

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